2022 UC Football Best Bets

Win total analysis, AAC Title picks and more.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Sep 1, 2022 10:22 AM EDT

CINCINNATI — Whenever a team loses a lot of talent like UC, the doubters start to circle. That can make those programs ripe for value in the betting markets, and I've identified three season bets that I love for UC in 2022.

Let's dive into the Best Bets—all odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Win Total & To Win 10+ Games: Over 9 -160/10+ -135

These numbers are some of the biggest head-scratching win totals in the sport. Cincinnati was dominant last season and is now going to fall off to 8-4? I don't buy it, and neither should the markets, but here we are.

I would be shocked if this team doesn't at least push the win total and finish 9-3. ESPN's Bill Connelly ranked the defense 108th in returning production, but they dominated camp, and all the new impact players I watched looked hungry and ready to make their own Blackcats legacy.

Offensively, Evan Prater and Ben Bryant likely won't be the AAC Offensive Player of the Year like Ridder was, but they are more than capable of being top-three passers in this league. The running back room is flush with enough talent to replace Jerome Ford. Up front, the offensive line is arguably the deepest it's been under Luke Fickell, as is the tight end room.

Pair all of that with this 2022 schedule, and I might break skin from scratching so hard. According to Betting Pros, UC sports a 96% or greater chance to win nine individual games this season (Kennesaw State, Indiana, Miami, Tulsa, South Florida, Navy, East Carolina, Temple, Tulsa). All of those games have projected two-plus touchdown spreads.

Mix all that together and it's the 83rd-ranked strength of schedule nationally, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. The algorithm pegs UC with 9.8 wins.

I have the Bearcats going 11-1 this season with a win against Arkansas, but even if they don't win the only game they are not projected as favorites in, they still need to lose three times in conference to blow the win total.

They have not lost three games in regular season conference play since 2017, Fickell's first year as head coach.

AAC Champions: Yes +220

A lot of my logic above applies here, and now we can focus on the games that the entire reload largely hinges on a two-game road trip against SMU and UCF to close October.

UCF is the one loss I have on the Bearcats' schedule, as they are currently projected as one-point favorites with a 51.3% chance to win. But one loss historically won't keep UC from playing on the first weekend of December.

Since the AAC was founded in 2013, the pandemic season of 2020 is the only time two teams finished undefeated in the conference with UC and Tulsa going 6-0 during a shortened season. Toss out that entire year of anomalies and you get a prime situation for UC to play in the AAC Championship game.

looking at the FPI again, UC has a 40% chance to win the AAC, the sixth-best conference odds of any team nationally, yet they aren't favored in the markets? Houston is the betting favorite on FanDuel and they have a 16.9% chance in the eyes of FPI.

Look at it this way, it's very unlikely that a 9, 10, or 11-win UC team enters the AAC Championship week as a +220 underdog. They are likely to be favored in that game, maybe by a touchdown or more. It behooves bettors that like UC to win a third-straight AAC Championship to snag the value a few months earlier.

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