Duke's Bowl Projections During Week 9 Bye

Duke won nine games a season ago and wound up in the Gator Bowl, where they were trounced by Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss, 52-20.

Oct 18, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz looks on during the first half of the game against Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Now, the Blue Devils look like a much improved team, both offensively and defensively, and could be in line to surpass their win total.

Right now, Duke is 4-3 with just one loss in ACC play. That loss came last week to Georgia Tech in Durham, where the Blue Devils made a series of errors in the red zone and the defense ran out of gas in the fourth quarter.

Oct 18, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils wide receiver Cooper Barkate (18) celebrates a down during the first half of the game against Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

A 4-3 record isn't going to raise any eyebrows or signal a program on the rise, but Duke is just that, on the rise. In large part, it's thanks to Manny Diaz's efforts recruiting during the offseason, bring in talented freshmen who have made an imapct, like running back Nate Sheppard.

It's also because of Diaz's efforts in the portal, bring in Tulane transfer quarterback Darian Mensah. The sophomore signal caller has excelled under offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer, ranking second in the passing yards (2,211 yards) and first in the ACC in passing touchdowns (17).

Oct 4, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) high steps into the end zone for a touchdown ahead of California Golden Bears defensive back Cam Sidney (20) during the first quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Vincent Anthony Jr. has been a star for Duke defensively, leading the team with 6.5 sacks, and corner Chandler Rivers has done his job limiting pass production on the boundary. The Blue Devils' defense has been susceptible to big plays at times, but is still a stronger unit than last season's team.

Sep 6, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils cornerback Chandler Rivers (0), linebacker Jaiden Francois (2) and cornerback Kimari Robinson (5) celebrate a tackle by defensive end Vincent Anthony Jr.'s (7) against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Duke has an interesting schedule coming up, but a bowl appearance is almost certainly in the cards. A trip to Clemson next week and UConn the following week shouldn't be overlooked. The biggest remaining game is a home date with No. 16 Virginia, which will likely hold ACC postseason implications. The Blue Devils will then finish the season at rival North Carolina and at home against Wake Forest.

We took a look around the nation to see where outlets have the Blue Devils playing during bowl season. Here's what we found:

National Bowl Projections

Sep 28, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils linebacker Tre Freeman (12) celebrates during the second half of the game against North Carolina Tar Heels at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

CBS Sports: First Responder Bowl | Duke vs Fresno State (Dec. 26)

College Football News: Holiday Bowl | Duke vs Arizona (Jan. 2)

Sep 6, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz during the fourth quarter against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

ESPN No. 1: Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs Tennessee (Jan. 2)

ESPN No. 2: Duke's Mayo Bowl | Duke vs Missouri (Jan. 2)

Oct 18, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils fans during the first half of the game against Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

On SI: Pinstripe Bowl | Duke vs Minnesota (Dec. 27)

USA Today: Holiday Bowl | Duke vs Arizona State (Jan. 2)

Bowl Prediction

Aug 28, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a touchdown pass against the Elon Phoenix during the second half at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images | James Guillory-Imagn Images

Holiday Bowl | Duke vs Washington

I don't see Duke finishing worse than fourth in the ACC. Clemson is a tricky task next week, despite the fact that they have underperformed, but the big one is the home matchup with Virginia. Of the final five games, that feels like the most losable game left.

There is a chance Duke wins out to finish 9-3 again and possibly make the conference title game, but I do think there is at least one more loss in store.

Sep 27, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Anderson Castle (4) carries the ball against the Syracuse Orange in the second quarter at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Washington still fits here because of the deal the Holiday Bowl has with the former members of the Pac-12. A coast-to-coast bout in San Diego would be interesting, especially with the pair of quarterbacks that would square off in Mensah and Demond Williams Jr..

Let's say Duke gets to the 8-win mark, or the 9-win mark and comes up short in Charlotte. The Holiday Bowl is a nice consolation prize.

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