Preseason Predictions For Indiana Men’s Basketball: How Did We Do?

Back in October, Hoosiers On SI ran a series predicting whether Indiana’s men’s basketball team was better than its Big Ten foes. Here’s the good, the okay and the ugly of how our predictions played out.

The Indiana Hoosiers huddle Thursday, March 13, 2025, before their game against the Oregon Ducks in the 2025 TIAA Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. | Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – On Saturday, Hoosiers On SI examined how close to reality our preseason women’s basketball predictions were. And truth be told? They weren’t that bad.

Today we examine the men. This won’t be anywhere near as pristine.

There was a lot of optimism surrounding Indiana men’s basketball going into the 2024-25 season. With a mass of transfers, many thought the Hoosiers would be the Big Ten’s revival act. Indiana was picked second in the preseason poll.

Those predictions turned out to be off-base. Indiana finished ninth and at .500 in the Big Ten for the second straight season.

Back in October, we wrote a series of stories called Is Indiana Better Than? Featuring both the men’s and women’s basketball teams, we compared the Hoosiers to their 17 Big Ten foes in nine categories and determined whether Indiana was better or worse. We tried to determine where Indiana was in the Big Ten pecking order. We used nine categories to do so and scored which team had the edge.

Today, we use hindsight to see whether our foresight was good or bad regarding the Indiana men’s basketball team – and our predictions largely reflect that preseason optimism. Good, okay and ugly reference our prediction, not necessarily the state of Indiana or the team they became.

The Good

Indiana Hoosiers center Oumar Ballo (11) shoots the ball while UCLA Bruins forward Tyler Bilodeau (34) defends in the first half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

• Minnesota: Bordering on just okay but we gave Indiana a 6-3 edge over Minnesota, believing that Ben Johnson would have the Golden Gophers playing solidly by Big Ten play. Indiana won the regular season meeting with ease and finished three games ahead of the Gophers. We feel good about this pick.

• Northwestern: We gave Indiana a 5-4 edge. Northwestern is kind of a special case given that Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach both got hurt in the middle of Big Ten play. Northwestern’s eight point victory over Indiana when both players were healthy would suggest we were wrong, but Indiana finished three games ahead of the Wildcats, so 5-4 is about right.

• Rutgers: A rare one where our preseason thoughts proved prophetic. The Scarlet Knights were a preseason top 25 team with Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, but we gave Indiana a 7-2 edge. That turned out to be accurate as Indiana finished two games ahead of Rutgers and won the head-to-head meeting.

• USC: We predicted a 6-3 edge for the Hoosiers. Indiana won the regular season meeting without much trouble and bested the Trojans by three games in the standings. We had it pegged correctly.

• Washington: Indiana’s predicted 8-1 edge held up as the Huskies struggled badly in their first Big Ten go-around.

The Okay

Indiana's Malik Reneau (5) scores during the Indiana versus Purdue mens basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• Iowa: We gave Indiana a 5-4 edge, which probably isn’t high enough given that the Hawkeyes finished three games behind the Hoosiers, but Indiana was so bad in its 25-point loss at Carver-Hawkeye Arena that we’re going to put this in the okay category on general principle.

• Nebraska: Everything we just wrote on Iowa applies to Nebraska. A predicted 5-4 edge for Indiana, a three-game gap between the teams, but Indiana got hammered by the Cornhuskers back in December.

• Ohio State: Indiana's predicted 7-2 edge might have been slightly high considering the Buckeyes were only a game behind the Hoosiers, but Indiana swept the season series, so we'll be okay with this one.

• Purdue: We gave Indiana a 6-3 edge, which didn’t come to pass, but isn’t as bad as some of the other “uglies” in this space. Indiana did get the season split and nearly won in West Lafayette. On the other hand, preseason Big Ten favorite Purdue may not have won the conference, but the Boilermakers still finished three games ahead of the Hoosiers. Borderline ugly prediction, but wait until you see the actual uglies.

• UCLA: This was the only team I predicted would be better than the Hoosiers. That alone might merit its inclusion in the ugly category, but we were accurate on the prediction itself, a 5-4 edge for the Bruins. UCLA finished three games ahead of the Hoosiers and edged Indiana when UCLA came to Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, but it took a late-season run for UCLA to distance themselves from Indiana. We’ll give this the okay stamp of approval.

The Ugly

Indiana Hoosiers guard Myles Rice (1) and Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) fight during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

• Illinois: Here’s where it gets, er, fun? We gave Indiana a 7-2 score over the Fighting Illini. Among other things, we thought Indiana’s point guard play and perimeter defense would be better. It wasn’t. Indiana ugly-in-excelsis 25-point home loss to Illinois makes our predicted supremacy look that much worse.

• Maryland: A 7-2 edge for the Hoosiers was predicted. The Terrapins finished four games ahead of Indiana and beat the Hoosiers in Bloomington thanks in part to late-game confusion on the part of Indiana. Someone fire up the “Not Great Bob” meme.

• Michigan: While we respected what Dusty May would bring to the Wolverines, we were still spooked by Michigan’s last-place finish in 2024. That influenced our decision to give the Hoosiers a 6-3 edge. Four games behind and one home defeat against Michigan was the rebuke from the Wolverines.

• Michigan State: Indiana was predicted to have a 5-4 edge. While the Hoosiers did earn a victory at Breslin Center, the Spartans still finished seven games ahead of the Hoosiers. Sound the “Price Is Right” consolation horn.

• Oregon: A 7-2 edge for the Hoosiers - a familiar refrain in the predictions that didn't play out. Oregon finished two games ahead of Indiana and swept both games. It's hard to believe in hindsight how much better many thought Indiana would be compared to Big Ten foes.

• Penn State: We only gave Indiana a 5-4 edge. Given that the Hoosiers swept the season series and finished four games ahead of the Nittany Lions? Paying Penn State that level of respect is kinda ugly in hindsight.

• Wisconsin: Our faith in Wisconsin was low and our belief in the Hoosiers was high back in October, and the result was a predicted 7-2 edge for the Hoosiers. We couldn’t have known the Badgers would re-invent themselves as a 3-point-happy, analytically sound, high-scoring machine. Wisconsin is Exhibit A in how a team can change its identity without changing the coach. This prediction looks even worse given the non-competitive effort Indiana demonstrated on its visit to Madison.

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