Oregon Ducks' NCAA Tournament Prediction Dramatic Drop: Gonzaga Bulldogs Matchup

The Oregon Ducks are currently projected as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Their first round matchup would be against the No. 9 seed, Gonzaga Bulldogs. Oregon coach Dana Altman hopes to lead his team to success in March Madness.

Oregon head coach Dana Altman talks to his team as the Oregon Ducks host the Northwestern Wildcats Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks are currently projected as a No. 8 seed in college basketball analyst Andy Katz’s most recent NCAA Tournament bracket predictions. Katz released his updated predictions on Tuesday morning. He has the Ducks slated to play the No. 9 seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs in the first round. 

Oregon Projected As No. 8 Seed, Facing Gonzaga  

Feb 8, 2025; Stockton, California, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few (left) talks with forward Emmanuel Innocenti (5) during the second half against the Pacific Tigers at Alex G. Spanos Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks are currently the No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region per Katz’s projection. This is a dramatic drop off from where Oregon was just a few weeks ago before their five-game losing streak in late January. Oregon was as high as a No. 2 seed in some tournament field projections before tumbling down to the eight line.

If Oregon ends up facing Gonzaga in the first round, that is one of the toughest matchups that they could ask for. The Bulldogs have made the Sweet 16 in nine straight NCAA Tournaments, dating back to 2015. Gonzaga came into this season as a national championship contender, but things have not gone smoothly. Even though they haven’t reached expectations, it's hard to pick against coach Mark Few. He is always able to get his team playing their best ball come tournament season. 

If Oregon were to win that opener round matchup, they would be slated to play the winner of No. 1 Alabama and No. 16 seed Bryant. The Ducks have already faced Alabama earlier this season in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas, Nevada. Oregon upset the Crimson Tide 83-81. Since that game, Alabama has gone 15-2 and are currently ranked as the No. 4 team in the country in this week’s AP Top 25 poll. 

Feb 11, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears (1) reacts after scoring a three point basket during the first half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

If Oregon were to win their first two games, they would likely face either the No. 4 seeded St. John’s Red Storm or the No. 5 seed Kansas Jayhawks in the Sweet 16.

At the bottom of the Midwest Region, Katz has the No. 2 seed as the Houston Cougars and the No. 3 seed as the Purdue Boilermakers. If Oregon were to face either of these teams, it would be in the Elite Eight. 

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How Can the Ducks Improve Their Seed?

Feb 16, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks center Nate Bittle (32) reacts to a made three point shot against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights during the second half at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images / Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Oregon still has five games left on their regular season schedule. Up next is a road game against the Iowa Hawkeyes on Wednesday. Then they will then have a test at Wisconsin on Saturday.

The Ducks will close out the regular season with home games against USC and Indiana, and then a road game agaisnt Washington. If Oregon were to win at least four of their final five regular season games, it would not be surprising to see them jump up a couple seed lines.

There is also a massive opportunity in the Big Ten tournament to pick up some neutral site wins. If Oregon beats the teams they should down the stretch, they shouldn't seeded below the No. 7 line.

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