How Week 6 Upsets Affect Oregon Ducks' College Football Playoff Prediction

The No. 3 Oregon Ducks are 5-0 to start the season, coming off the bye. Starting undefeated and multiple upsets in week 6 of the season, there have been a couple of changes in the College Football Playoff ranking predictions. Where are the Oregon Ducks projected to be ranked following the action in week 6?

Jul 23, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Oregon head coach Dan Lanning speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images | Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

The No. 3 Oregon Ducks are 5-0 coming off a bye week. Oregon coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks are one of the most dominant teams in college football are looking to build on their strong start to the season.

ESPN released an updated College Football Playoff prediction following week 6 of the season. While Oregon did not play, the results of the weekend do impact the Ducks’ postseason projection.

College Football Playoff Prediction

Nov 18, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

1. Miami Hurricanes
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Oregon Ducks
4. Texas A&M Aggies
5. Ole Miss Rebels
6. Alabama Crimson Tide
7. Oklahoma Sooners
8. Georgia Bulldogs
9. Indiana Hoosiers
10. Texas Tech Red Raiders
11. Tennessee Volunteers
12. LSU Tigers

In this prediction, the Oregon Ducks would earn a first-round bye for the second straight year. Last season, there was a common struggle with teams earning a bye, with concerns around the rest time. Lanning and the Ducks could enter this year’s CFP more prepared as they look to make a deeper run.

Oregon would face the winner of No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Alabama.

Why Oregon Is Listed As No. 3

Sep 27, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) warms up before a game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-Imagn Images | James Lang-Imagn Images

With the Oregon Ducks being undefeated, the program is still predicted to be No. 3. The win over the Penn State Nittany Lions was crucial for Oregon, as it was in a hostile environment. After Penn State recently lost to a previously winless UCLA Bruins, that win may not seem as big, but Oregon, being the road team, still plays a role.

“The committee could be more impressed with Oregon’s cross-country win against two-loss PSU than Ohio State’s home win against Texas now that both have two losses. The Ducks have two road wins compared with Miami’s one,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote.

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The win over Penn State and still being undefeated put the Ducks in good standing to make the CFP. Oregon will have a tough test against the No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers. If Oregon were to lose, because of Indiana’s success this season as well, the Ducks could still make the CFP. 

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning speaks during the coaches press conference in Los Angeles Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024, ahead of the Rose Bowl. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Both Indiana and Oregon are entering the game in week 7 as top-10 undefeated teams. A win could solidify Oregon as a top program when it comes to the CFP seeding.

While anything can happen in any game, Indiana is Oregon’s toughest opponent remaining. Not only would a win help the team return to the CFP, as a highly ranked team, but it would help the Ducks return to the Big Ten championship as well.

Oregon’s Well-Rounded Team Success

The Oregon Ducks have one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation, making it a challenge for opponents each week.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore warms up as the Oregon Ducks host the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Sept. 6, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon’s offense is explosive, with quarterback Dante Moore showing confidence in the pocket. Moore has passed for 1,210 yards and 14 touchdowns. One of the reasons for Oregon’s success is the offensive line. Moore has been sacked just one time through five games.

With the success of the offensive line, the run game has been highly successful. Freshman running back Dierre Hill Jr. leads the team with 270 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Including Hill, the Ducks have three running backs with over 100 rushing yards.

The Ducks' defense has been dominant, especially in the trenches. Oregon’s stop rate is 81.4 percent, making it a challenge for the opposing offense to gain any momentum. Linebacker Bryce Boettcher leads the team with 39 total tackles and one interception.

The No. 3 Oregon Ducks will face the No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday, Oct. 11, at 12:30 p.m. PT at Autzen Stadium. A win would be a significant boost towards Oregon’s CFP run.