Final Forecast 2.0: Predicting the Finish to Oregon Football's 2022 Recruiting Class
This is the second edition of my Final Forecast series. The first came at the start of July following the much anticipated official visit period in June. If you want more insight on how my picks have changed, you can go back and read that edition here.
The goal of my Final Forecast series is simple: to predict which recruits will end up signing with the Ducks when this cycle is all said and done.
Now seemed like an appropriate time to provide an update, as Oregon just hosted its premier summer recruiting event: Saturday Night Live. Additionally, as the return of real football on the field inches closer, both the Oregon staff and many recruits will be looking to lock in their commitments in order to focus on the season. As a result, a few major Oregon targets have already announced commitment dates in the coming weeks.
Quarterback (1)
Tanner Bailey
The Ducks locked in their quarterback for the 2022 class early, and I would be surprised to see any changes in this cycle. The only storyline here is Bailey’s ability to recruit other talented players to join him in Eugene.
Bailey was in attendance for SNL in Eugene and appeared to already be starting on that effort. Not to mention he's been to Eugene twice this summer and still hasn't used his official visit. Expect the staff to try and get him back in town for that when they host their biggest names still on the recruiting board for 2022.
Running Back (0)
None
I still believe it’s likely that Oregon will not take a running back in this cycle. The reality is spots are limited and other areas have more pressing needs, especially given the two talented ball carriers Oregon signed in the 2021 class in Byron Cardwell and Seven McGee.
Receiver (5)
Stephon Johnson Jr., Nicholas Anderson, Isaiah Sategna, Tetairoa McMillan, Kevin Coleman
The Ducks already hold verbal commitments from Johnson, Anderson, and Sategna. Those three would be enough for many schools to hold off, but the Ducks, led by ace recruiter and Wide Receivers Coach Bryan McClendon, seem determined to keep the hot streak going.
Still, there is always a limit to how many spots you have, and for Oregon, it seems like they will end up adding one or two more receivers this class. The three names to monitor closely are Tetairoa McMillan, Darrius Clemons, and Kevin Coleman. Given the elite options and limited spots, this was the most difficult position group for me to sort out on my entire list.
McMillan will be the first domino to fall, as he’s set a commitment date for Aug. 16. I included McMillan for the Ducks in my last edition of Final Forecast, and after serious consideration, I’ve decided to keep him on the list.
I expect the choice to be either Arizona or Oregon, and right now I’m leaning by the thinnest of margins toward the Ducks. Oregon has a ton to offer in terms of national profile and NFL pedigree. For a player as talented as McMillan, Oregon is the school out west that clearly offers the best chance to compete at the highest level of college football.
That said, Arizona has some factors that lean in their favor as well. The Wildcats give him the chance to showcase his talents immediately with early available playing time. Plus, he already has his Servite teammates Noah Fifita and Keyan Burnett committed there to play quarterback and tight end, respectively. I expect it to be a tight decision, but I’m giving the edge to Oregon right now.
In-state product Darrius Clemons is also far along in the recruiting process. Clemons is down to a final three of Oregon, Penn State, and Auburn. I can realistically see Clemons ending up at any of these three schools.
In fact, I think that the Ducks have a better shot in this recruitment than many people are giving them credit for. Still, there isn’t quite enough separation either way at this point for me to include him in my prediction. Our Max Torres caught up with him for an interview recently, and you can read that update here.
Lastly is Kevin Coleman. I wrote in last month’s Final Forecast that I was close to putting in a bold prediction for Coleman to end up a Duck, and I’ve gone ahead and done that in this edition. Coleman made the trip to Oregon for SNL, and by all accounts, it was a huge success for the Ducks. There just seems to be a different way that Coleman talks about Oregon in comparison to other programs. I think the Ducks make a splash and end up landing the 5-star.
Tight End (1)
Andre Dollar
No changes here. The Ducks have their guy in Dollar, and I don’t see another target being added in 2022 at this time.
Offensive Line (5)
Percy Lewis, Michael Wooten, Cameron Williams, Dave Iuli, Kelvin Banks
I predicted the Ducks to land Kelvin Banks and Dave Iuli in my last edition, and both joined the flock not much later in the month of July. I also mentioned Eston Harris Jr. before, but I still believe the group is too full. For now, I’m sticking with the five I listed last time and the five currently committed in this cycle.
The main prospect I am considering adding in the future is 5-star OT Joshua Conerly Jr. That’s mainly because he’s an elite offensive lineman, and the Cristobal-Mirabal duo has proven to be too much for recruits to turn away.
Additionally, the Ducks have a geographic advantage with him coming from Seattle. Oregon is very much a player here, but so are USC, Michigan, and hometown Washington — all three of which he visited this summer.
Defensive Line (4)
Gracen Halton, Sir Mells, Emar’rion Winston, Ben Roberts
Halton and Mells remain locked in and are providing a very solid foundation for this defensive line class on the interior. I also flipped Winston from a linebacker to a defensive lineman in this update after seeing him at SNL. I got the chance to see Halton and Mells in person at SNL as well, and they both certainly looked the part.
The Ducks also brought in Washington commit Ben Roberts for their SNL event. This will be important to track, because if Roberts does reopen his recruitment, then Oregon will certainly be a major player. I’ve done a little projection here, but I’m going to say that flip is exactly what happens. I’m doing that because I think the Ducks end up taking four players along the defensive line, and I see Roberts as the most likely candidate right now. Call it a placeholder if you’d like.
Additionally, Oregon is in the mix for Arizona defensive lineman Anthony Lucas. The Ducks recently made the cut for Lucas’s top seven, and it's tough to overstate the potential impact of this recruitment. Lucas landed as the No. 19 prospect in the country on the preseason edition of the SI99.
Again, Oregon is firmly in contention here and is aided by their success in Arizona in recent cycles, but I would like to see the list get trimmed down a bit more before I include him in my forecast.
Enai White is the last prospect worth mentioning. The Ducks missed the cut for his top four, but they are still pushing to land the final official visit from him. Admittedly this is a bit of a long shot, but the Ducks can’t yet be ruled out here either. Christen Miller and Andrew Savaiinaea are worth a quick mention as well.
Linebacker (2)
TJ Dudley, Cyrus Moss
If you were scared by the absence of Cyrus Moss on my defensive line forecast, you can rest easy now. I switched him to linebacker because that’s where I think his edge-rushing abilities will be utilized in Tim DeRuyter’s new defense. Moss is one of the biggest targets that Oregon is still heavily pursuing.
I had Moss forecasted to the Ducks in early July, and I see no reason to change that at this point. The Ducks continue to do all the right things and have put themselves in a great position to land this crucial commitment down the line. He spoke with our Max Torres following his visit for SNL, which you can read here.
Dudley has remained solid with his commitment to Oregon, and I don’t see that changing. In my last forecast, I included Robby Snelling and Sebastian Cheeks for the Ducks. I missed on both, as they ended up committing to LSU and North Carolina, respectively.
Going forward, I think the Ducks will likely take another linebacker, but no prospect stood out quite enough to gain inclusion on the list. Lander Barton, Harrison Taggart, and David Bailey should all be on Ducks fans’ radar for potential additions at linebacker in this class. Harold Perkins out of Texas would be the dream scenario, but that seems like a long shot even with the Ducks’ recent success in the Lone Star State.
The prospect I most seriously considered adding is Daniel Martin out of Marietta, Ga. Martin was a standout player at Oregon’s SNL event, looking like arguably the most impressive linebacker in attendance. Afterward, Martin tweeted out “looking forward to my official visit” in reference to a return trip to Eugene. If the Ducks make a big impression on Martin’s official visit, that could put them in the position to land the talented linebacker.
Cornerback (2)
Jalil Tucker, Jahlil Florence
Jalil Tucker and Jahlil Florence have been at the top of Oregon’s priority list for months now. The two are elite cornerback prospects, and they’re also friends and high school teammates at Lincoln in San Diego. Both also recently set commitment dates in August. Florence picked the Ducks’ hat in his ceremony on Thursday, locoking in his spot. Tucker will announce his commitment on Aug. 20, and I’m sticking with my forecast for the Ducks.
Zeke Berry was listed in my last forecast, but he has since committed to Arizona, although I expect the Ducks to remain in contact. I’ve removed Berry and replaced his spot in the secondary with a fast-rising prospect at safety.
Safety (3)
Landon Hullaby, Trejon Williams, Damani Dent
Landon Hullaby and Trejon Williams have been longtime Oregon commits, and they continue to be solid with the Ducks, while also recruiting their fellow 2022 prospects to come to Eugene. I mentioned Zion Branch and Keon Sabb in my last forecast, but since then both prospects have removed the Ducks from contention. Fortunately, another talented prospect has emerged.
Damani Dent was a standout player at Oregon’s SNL camp. Arguably no prospect did more to raise their stock that day than Dent. He received offers from Michigan, Pitt, and most notably Oregon in the days following the event.
Dent looked strong in one-on-one coverage, and I see him as someone with the versatility to play at corner or nickel in college. I caught up with Dent recently, and I believe the Ducks are in a good position to potentially land his commitment down the road. You can read his interview here.
If you add those position groups up, they arrive at a total of 23 prospects this cycle. That’s the same number I arrived at in my last forecast, and I think 23 is still a good number to target based on how the staff has been operating on the recruiting trail. If the Ducks do finish somewhere close to this projection, then I expect Oregon will end up right around the No. 10 recruiting class in the country.
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