How USC's Loss Against Oregon Changes College Football Playoff Chances

The No. 15 USC Trojans fell 42-27 to the No. 7 Oregon Ducks in a defeat that likely saw their College Football Playoff dreams come to an end. What are the Trojans' playoff chances after Saturday's road loss to the Ducks?

Nov 22, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning greet each other after the game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Looking to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive, the No. 15 USC Trojans fell to the No. 7 Oregon Ducks 42-27 in a hostile road environment at Autzen Stadium. With the loss, the Trojans' aspirations of reaching the playoff for the first time under coach Lincoln Riley have likely come to an end. 

What's Next For USC After Crushing Loss vs. Oregon

Nov 22, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) runs with the ball during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

While crazier things have happened in college football, the Trojans will need a lot of chaos to occur the rest of the season for them even to be considered for a playoff spot, if they finish at 9-3.

The Trojans now drop to 1-3 on the season against current CFP top 25 teams after their loss to the Ducks. The other two losses also came on the road to the No. 21 Illinois Fighting Illini and the No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Beating ranked opponents on the road has been a struggle for USC under Lincoln Riley, and it remains an obstacle they have yet to overcome after Saturday's loss to the Ducks. 

While a disappointment for a majority of USC fans, the Trojans can still finish the season strong with a win over their arch-rival, the UCLA Bruins, in their final home game of the season at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. With a win over the Bruins, the Trojans will finish with a 9-3 record and go undefeated at the Coliseum for the first time since Riley’s first season in 2022.   

MORE: USC's Lincoln Riley Provides Waymond Jordan Injury Update Before Oregon Game

MORE: What Analytics are Saying About USC’s Chances to Upset Oregon

MORE: Updated Weather Report Before USC Trojans Travel To Oregon Ducks 

WOULD YOU LIKE MORE USC TROJANS NEWS? SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER HERE!

While many USC fans were hoping for Riley to lead the Trojans to the playoff, a rivalry win over UCLA and victory in a top bowl game should give the program momentum heading into next year, especially with the No. 1 recruiting class on the way.

Nov 22, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Southern California Trojans tight end Lake McRee (87) catches a pass for a touch down against the Oregon Ducks during the second half at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

For some USC fans, the road loss to Illinois on Sept. 27 has to be coming back to haunt them, as the Trojans could've still been in the playoff chase if they had completed a fourth-quarter comeback in Champaign.

Penalties and Turnovers Major Factor In Loss To Oregon

Nov 22, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) handles the ball during the game against the Oregon Ducks during the first half at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

In the loss to the Ducks, penalties ultimately proved to be a major factor in the Trojans' defeat, as they committed eight penalties for a total of 103 yards. The Ducks committed more penalties with 11 that added up to a total of 130 yards, but it was USC's that came at costly moments throughout the game.

A missed field goal by Oregon late in the second quarter was called back due to an automatic first down after the Trojans were called for a leaping penalty with the Ducks up 21-14. Instead of getting the ball back down by a touchdown late in the second quarter, the Trojans allowed the Ducks to extend their lead to 28-14 with a rushing touchdown by Oregon linebacker Bryce Boettcher. To make matters worse, USC kicker Ryon Sayeri missed a chip-shot 27-yard field goal to close out the first half.

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava's two interceptions also came at crucial moments throughout the game, allowing the Ducks to extend their lead. Maiava finished the game with 306 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions on 25-of-43 passing.