Fantasy Clicks: Looking Back, Looking Forward

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Recent Fantasy Clicks 6-25-09: Second-Year Thoughts 6-18-09: It's Getting Drafty In Here 6-11-09: An SI Special 6-04-09: The Art of the Deal 5-28-09: Welcome Back 5-21-09: Welcome Back 5-14-09: Five Faces in New Places 5-07-09: Dominican Duds 5-06-09: Welcome to the House of Pewter 5-04-09: The Man Of Steal Rides Again 4-29-09: Dangers of RB Overpopulation 4-27-09: It's All About The O's 4-24-09: The New Falconer 4-22-09: Fantasy Breakdown Of NFL Sked 4-20-09: The Ultimate Fantasy Catch-22 4-17-09: Cyclist Of The Century 4-15-09: NFL Slices Of Heaven, Part II 4-13-09: All Hail The Check-Swing King 4-10-09: Welcome To Adventureland 4-08-09: NFL Slices Of Heaven 4-07-09: Running vs. Trotting 4-06-09: Opening Night Revelations 4-03-09: Draft Night Revelations, Part II 3-31-09: Dynamic Duos 3-30-09: Draft Night Revelations 3-27-09: Draft Rules To Live By 3-25-09: Sophomore Surges 3-24-09: All Apologies 3-23-09: Catch A Rising Star 3-20-09: Look Out For Pick No. 1 ... and 24 3-18-09: PVR Perfect 3-17-09: Don't Forget About Me 3-13-09: Welcome To Spring Break 3-12-09: LT2 Losing His Charge 3-11-09: Sudden Impact 3-09-09: Hip, Hip ... Hurry Back, A-Rod 3-06-09: Revenge Of The Cyst 3-05-09: A Disappointing Deadline Day 3-04-09: Cosmic Charlie 3-02-09: Aces In The Hole 2-27-09: Depth Perceptions 2-26-09: Tyson's Corner 2-25-09: Pack Your Bags? 2-24-09: NFL Combine wrap 2-20-09: Designated Long Drivers 2-19-09: The Brady Hunch 2-16-09: Seeking Sweet Relief 2-13-09: Sneak peek at an MLB mock draft 2-12-09: Boozer's Snoozer Of A Season 2-11-09: Impossible to ignore 2-9-09: The Secret Life of A-Rod 2-6-09: Pick of the 2B litter 2-5-09: Time for a fantasy bailout 2-4-09: Another winged wonder? 2-2-09: Super Bowl Revelations

Looking Back, Looking Forward

Ryan Howard :: David E. Klutho/SI

If you haven't figured it out by now, I'm a big proponent of recent past performance as a good indicator of future potential. Of course there are myriad other factors involved but three year totals and averages give a good indication of what to expect in the immediate future. With that the case and with us heading into the second half of the season, these are the leaders in the 10 major fantasy categories over the past three second halves.

Home runs (2006-08)
Ryan Howard 76
Mark Teixeira 58
Alex Rodriguez 56
Albert Pujols 55
David Ortiz 54
Alfonso Soriano 51
Matt Holliday 50
Prince Fielder 49
Jim Thome 49
Miguel Cabrera 48
Jermaine Dye 48
Take Note: After a syrupy slow start, Oritz was just one home run off the pace for the American League lead in June.

Matt Holliday 177
Alex Rodriguez 167
Jimmy Rollins 167
Bobby Abreu 157
Ryan Howard 157
Albert Pujols 156
David Wright 156
Curtis Granderson 155
Carlos Beltran 154
Hanley Ramirez 150
Jose Reyes 150
Take Note: Holliday will be the biggest free agency pickup of the year in NL-only leagues when rumors that has him going to the Cardinals or any other senior circuit squad come true.

Batting Average
Manny Ramirez .354
Albert Pujols .352
Chipper Jones .343
Vladimir Guerrero .341
Robinson Cano .337
David Wright .334
Martin Prado .332
Freddy Sanchez .332
Skip Schumaker .327
Placido Polanco .326
Take Note: Manny's career averages before the All Star Game (.311/.408/.583) and after (.320/.417/.607). Also Prado has been installed as a starter for now in Atlanta and his hot late season history makes him a solid pickup.

Runs Batted In
Ryan Howard 209
Miguel Cabrera 181
Albert Pujols 178
Mark Teixeira 177
Alex Rodriguez 176
Garrett Atkins 165
Magglio Ordoñez 164
Matt Holliday 162
Aramis Ramirez 162
David Ortiz 161
Take Note: There's still a lot of games to play so don't necessarily give up on Atkins, Ordoñez or Aramis Ramirez yet.

Stolen Bases
Jose Reyes 81
Jimmy Rollins 66
Juan Pierre 63
Willy Taveras 62
Hanley Ramirez 61
Chone Figgins 58
Carl Crawford 55
Brian Roberts 50
Eric Byrnes 48
Ichiro Suzuki 41
Take Note: It's all the usual suspects here but you could still make a sweetheart deal for Rollins who is a lock to bounce back from his season-long slump.

Brandon Webb 26
Roy Oswalt 25
Johan Santana 23
A.J. Burnett 22
Ted Lilly 22
Andy Pettitte 22
Chad Billingsley 21
Dan Haren 21
Jamie Moyer 21
CC Sabathia 21
Take Note: An injured Webb isn't going to help much the rest of this season but those of you looking to load up on talent in dump deals should target Billingsley, Burnett and Haren as those who'll give you the biggest bang for the buck.

CC Sabathia 2.40
Roy Oswalt 2.53
Johan Santana 2.89
Chris Carpenter 2.93
Erik Bedard 2.93
Tim Lincecum 2.99
Adam Wainwright 3.01
Todd Wellemeyer 3.03
Cole Hamels 3.08
Scott Kazmir 3.08
Take Note: Just off the disabled list and still saddled with poor numbers, Kazmir makes a lot of sense for teams looking for an additional starter.

Chris Carpenter 1.02
Johan Santana 1.08
Cole Hamels 1.10
C.C. Sabathia 1.12
Kevin Slowey 1.16
Randy Johnson 1.17
Ricky Nolasco 1.17
Chris Young 1.17
Brett Myers 1.18
John Smoltz 1.19
Take Note: Slowey is quietly one of the best pitchers in all of baseball and he's certainly someone to go after, especially in keeper leagues.

Johan Santana 309
CC Sabathia 295
Javier Vazquez 286
Jake Peavy 285
Dan Haren 263
A.J. Burnett 259
Aaron Harang 247
Matt Cain 245
John Lackey 238
Bronson Arroyo 237
Felix Hernandez 237
Scott Kazmir 237
Take Note: Peavy won't be of help but the Reds two top 10 starters, Aaron Harag and Bronson Arroyo are key for those in search of K's.

Francisco Rodriguez 66
Joe Nathan 54
Trevor Hoffman 52
Brad Lidge 51
Mariano Rivera 49
Francisco Cordero 48
Jose Valverde 45
Bobby Jenks 44
J.J. Putz 44
Jonathan Papelbon 39
Takashi Saito 33
Take Note: This group just goes to show how few great closers have staying power over time.

Welcome Freshmen

In a year where there are a lot of rookies but no clear leaders among the Rookie of the Year candidates, I've been checking in on who would get my votes in each league at different points in the season. Here's how it looks with three months in the books.

1. Nolan Reimold, Orioles
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Andrew Bailey, Athletics
4. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
5. Jeff Niemann, Rays
On the radar: Alfredo Aceves, Yankees; Gordon Beckham, White Sox; Brad Bergesen, Orioles; Vin Mazzro, Athletics; David Price, Rays; Scott Richmond, Blue Jays; Ricky Romero, Blue Jays; Matt Wieters, Orioles

1. Tommy Hanson, Braves
2. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
3. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals
4. J.A. Happ, Phillies
5. Casey McGahee, Brewers
On the radar: Dexter Fowler, Rockies; Travis Ishikawa, Giants; Dan Meyer, Marlins; Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks; Omir Santos, Mets; Randy Wells, Cubs

Not a first rounder? Not to worry

The NBA draft is just two rounds and while most players who become big fantasy stars emerge from the somehow every season some gems emerge from the second half of the draft. Here are the second rounder's from the past five drafts who've become fantasy forces plus those drafted last week who are in good position to be contributors this year.

Draft Player, team(s), overall selection
2008 Mario Chalmers, Heat, (34th); Luc Mbah a Moute, Bucks (37th)
2007 Carl Landry, Sonics to Rockets (31st); Glen Davis, Sonics to Celtics (35th); Ramon Sessions, Bucks (56th)
2006 Daniel Gibson, Cavs (42nd); Paul Millsap, Jazz (47th)
2005 Monta Ellis, Warriors (40th); Ryan Gomes, Celtics (50th)
2004 Chris Duhon, Bulls (38th); Trevor Ariza, Knicks (43rd)

2009 Draft
1. DeJuan Blair, Spurs (37th) One of the Finalsist for College Player of the Year last season, Blair slid to the second round because of injury concerns earlier in his Pitt career. Don't underestimate the effect that playing with Tim Duncan in practice every day will have on his game.
2. Danny Green, Cavaliers (46th) The only Tar Heel to ever make 50 threes while blocking 100 or more shots in his career, Green is exactly the type of unselfish player that LeBron James needs in his supporting cast. Look for Green to earn major minutes as a Shane Battier type at the two.
3. Patty Mills, Trail Blazers (55th) Just 20 years old, there was wide speculation that the point guard would be taken in the first round, but instead he waited for four hours at Madison Square Garden to hear his name called. Rudy Fernandez is unhappy, Steve Blake has been mentione in trade talks and Jerryd Bayless is more of a shooter than a playmaker, opening the door for Austrailia's best player.
4. A.J. Price, Pacers (52nd) Larry Bird took the senior point guard from UConn with hopes of him being at the very least a backup to restricted free agent Jarrett Jack who could sign elsewhere and T.J. Ford who is often injured and lost a share of the spot to Jack last season. He's not someone to draft, but certainly have him on your watch list.

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