For better, for worse
Among all the "new" statistics that baseball pundits have embraced, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is one that has gained particular attention. In some ways, it attempts to evaluate luck in a way that few baseball statistics have tried. In its most basic terms, BABIP is hits minus home runs divided by at-bats minus home runs, minus strikeouts, plus sacrifice flies. It's been discussed in some detail in For Better, For Worse in the past, but it also offers a potential glimpse into the future.
To a certain degree, BABIP is a measurement of which players are getting lucky on batted balls and which are finding more outs than the laws of averages would otherwise support. Yet, more than just evaluating luck, which is not a common scoring category in fantasy baseball circles, BABIP is a fairly good measurement of which hitters are likely to get better, while others can be expected to get worse. In fantasy circles, those with an artificially high BABIP are unlikely to maintain that number, while the converse is also true. For anyone who has been privy to a true premonition, and there are very few, everyone agrees that seeing the future can be an invaluable tool. BABIP may be a window into future events and fantasy success.