Fantasy football tends to be a reactionary game. Football, after all, is a game of reading and reacting. Anticipating can get you in trouble.
You read fantasy analysis and then react.
In SI.com's Week 4 Scouting Report let's try to do a little more anticipating, which can come in handy during the bye season. It gets very competitive on the waiver wire, so we will try to help get you ahead of the curve by projecting what the Week 5 will look like:
1. Kevin Ogletree will be most dropped
Week 1 not only seems like a long time ago, it's light years away for Ogletree. After getting another disappointing week out of the most-added player going into Week 2, he'll wind up on waivers in most of the 76 percent of leagues in which he is still owned. It won't just be his poor numbers Monday night against the Bears defense. It will also be a function of his heading into a bye.
2. Jerome Simpson will be most added
Somehow the hype has skipped this guy. He front-flipped for a touchdown a season ago, registering the play of the year, and leaped over a defender in the preseason. This freakish athlete has disappeared in fantasy after a three-game suspension but he returns against a Lions defense that was torched by the Titans a week ago.
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be most disappointing
This is a dangerous prediction, because the Patriots have made Kevin Kolb look capable and Joe Flacco look like a star in back-to-back weeks. Fitzpatrick has gotten off to a start as impressive as the one he got off to last season. It looks like another great week to be happy with Fitzpatrick as your starter. Well, those game-breaking Bills running backs are still somewhat broken, and the Pats defense is a lot better than it has shown. The Bills played great against the Patriots last season, rallying to beat them once and building a huge lead the second time. But the Pats are not going to lose three consecutive games and avoiding that will require making Fitzpatrick look like the low-end fantasy backup quarterback he is.
4. Andre less than a Giant
Andre Brown looked like he gave the Giants offense a new dimension in Week 3. Really, he was merely in the right place in the right time. Trusting the journeyman against the Eagles run defense is a bad idea in Week 4. In fact, Brown is going to wind up as the Giants third-best running back shortly. Sell high on this flash in the pan.
5. Leonard Hankerson becomes a man
Pierre Garcon's foot injury -- and Josh Morgan's momentary lapse in (poor) judgment -- has given Hankerson an opportunity to step forward for the Redskins. Santana Moss looks like the biggest has-been in fantasy and Robert Griffin III looks like the next big thing. Someone is going to benefit and the former Miami Hurricane is a pretty good bet. Owned in just 16 percent of CBSSports.com fantasy leagues, Hankerson has talent and an incredible opportunity before him.
As for other things to anticipate: If you have some marginal bench players from the Cowboys (Felix Jones, Dan Bailey), Lions (Nate Burleson, Kevin Smith), Raiders (Brandon Myers) and Buccaneers (LeGarrette Blount), you can cut them now for a flier for Week 5. Those teams are heading into their bye weeks and won't register much interest on Tuesday night's waivers.
1. RB Tashard Choice, Bills -- The questionable health of Fred Jackson (knee) and C.J. Spiller (shoulder) make Choice a decent pick-up, but the likelihood is his run will be a brief one, if it's a run at all. Both Jackson and Spiller might play, which would relegate Choice to being merely bench insurance.
2. D/ST Arizona Cardinals -- They have been one of the biggest surprises of the season and they get to tee off against Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins with a banged-up Reggie Bush. This is a great week to start a defense that is playing great and was off the radar on draft day.
3. RB Daniel Thomas, Dolphins -- Like Choice, Thomas might not quite get the touches his owners hoped. Bush might play, and rookie Lamar Miller is a factor. The good news is Thomas is a goal-line back regardless. The bad news is the Cardinals D/ST is a tough matchup that might not render a goal-line score.
4. RB Bilal Powell, Jets -- Shonn Greene is off to an awful start, which is more a function of the opposing defenses he has faced than his own incompetence. Powell is gaining steam as the backup, but don't dare start him against the 49ers run defense, which is still the toughest in the NFL going forward. Adding to the Powell rise is the fact the other backup RB for the Jets, Joe McKnight, is making a move to cornerback to help overcome the loss of Darrelle Revis.
5. TE Heath Miller, Steelers -- His three-week touchdown streak makes him an intriguing sleeper, but this bye week isn't a time to go pick him up. Backup tight ends in fantasy are dime a dozen. Frankly, it's a waste of a useful roster spot.
6. WR Andrew Hawkins, Bengals -- One is an accident; two is a trend; three makes a man. Hawkins might not be a breakout on the level of Victor Cruz 2011, but he sure looks like it through three weeks. Consider him a viable starter, for now, particularly with A.J. Green drawing so much coverage over the top.
7. QB Christian Ponder, Vikings -- Not only has Ponder held up against some solid opponents, namely the 49ers in Week 3, but he is also getting the suspended Simpson back this week. With Adrian Peterson drawing eight-man boxes, Percy Harvin drawing the targets and tight end Kyle Rudolph keeping safeties honest, Simpson can be an impact field stretcher. Ponder has some weapons to help him be productive in the right matchups.
8. WR Ramses Barden, Giants -- The surprise knee swelling of Hakeem Nicks can keep Barden a candidate to play in deeper leagues. Eventually, Nicks is going to relegate Barden to an afterthought, though.
9. D/ST Atlanta Falcons -- They were very impressive against the Chargers, but it should be a bit tougher in a division game against Cam Newton and company. The Falcons are a fringe defense best used when the matchup is right. Week 4 shouldn't qualify.
10. K Lawrence Tynes, Giants -- The Giants are a productive offense moving the ball for him, but Eli Manning and company are a bit too productive (ie, scoring touchdowns instead of field goals).
1. RB Beanie Wells, Cardinals -- That DFR (designated for return) IR was surprising and is helping Ryan Williams owners do back flips. It is going to be at least Week 12 before Wells can return. By then, about half of your fantasy league won't be competing for free-agent pickups. That is reason enough to drop Wells in any league. Williams can run away with the job, too. LaRod Stephens-Howling is a handcuff waiver claim now, too.
2. RB Roy Helu, Redskins -- Well, either Helu was more injured than anyone let on, or the Redskins were really sour on him and it wasn't just a Mike Shanahan smoke-screen. Helu's keep value is down to nil as well now, too.
3. RB David Wilson, Giants -- You don't draft a talent like this in Round 1, get a Week 1 fumble and forget about him. He will eventually work his way ahead of Week 3 surprise Brown -- and maybe even starter Ahmad Bradshaw -- but owners will have to show some patience. The payoff should be worth it in the end.
4. WR Stephen Hill, Jets -- The rookie has been quiet since Week 1 and is banged up right now. He is a justified cut, but he will also make an impact in fantasy when the Jets schedule finally softens up.
5. RB Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers -- With Rashard Mendenhall (knee) expected to return to the starting role in Week 5, Dwyer and Isaac Redman have likely blown their big chance at being impact fantasy performers.
6. D/ST Detroit Lions -- That was a big, fat egg they laid at Tennessee last week, so it is not surprising to see this defense on the most-dropped list. They are going to eventually wind back up on the most-added list, though. A good, streaming defense.
7. RB Kevin Smith, Lions -- The arrival of Mikel Leshoure has relegated Smith into a nobody. A potential second-half return of Jahvid Best (post-concussion syndrome) can make it worse. Smith is not worth owning.
8. TE Coby Fleener, Colts -- His Week 3 shutout made him an easy cut going into his bye week. Future bye weeks is going to make him a solid addition down the road. Those targets are going to come back in a pass-happy Andrew Luck-led offense.
9. D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers -- There is no good reason this defense should have been cut. They are going to be a must-start defense after the Week 4 bye. Pick them up immediately.
10. WR Austin Collie, Colts -- Well, a concussion didn't end his season, but a knee injury has. Consider Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton very intriguing sleepers during the bye season. Even LaVon Brazill might emerge, so watch that in Week 5.