By Michael Beller
June 13, 2013
Edwin Jackson's high ERA is bound to come down based on his below-average strand rate percentage.
Nam Y. Huh/AP

However, my favorite sell-high targets are Kuroda and Santana, in that order. Not only has he been lucky this year, his K/9 is just 6.47 and his ground-ball rate is 44.9 percent. He has a 2.84 ERA, yet his FIP is 3.49. There's plenty of room for him to regress to the mean. You can also play up the fact that he's on the Yankees, which should give him plenty of win opportunities. As for Santana, other than Iwakuma and Locke, he has the farthest outlying combo of BABIP and strand rate. He does have a career-high strikeout rate and career-low walk rate, so he's not doing it all with a four-leaf clover sticking out of his cleats, but the fact remains we should expect some regression here. Best to get out too early than too late.

You May Like