Justin Verlander Fantasy Outlook: The Ol' Flamethrower is Still Firing On All Cylinders
Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander was somehow, at the age of 36, was the best pitcher in the game last year based on SIscore (16.07).
Verlander outpaced everyone in the American League in wins (21), starts (34), innings pitched (223), and WHIP (0.803). Over his last three seasons since arriving in Houston, Verlander is 42-15 with a 2.45 ERA and 633 strikeouts over 471 innings. He finished with 300 strikeouts for the first time in his career, (previous career-best 290, in 2018) with an edge in both his walk rate (1.7) and strikeout rate (12.1).
Verlander struggled with home runs in each of his last three seasons (1.2, 1.2, and 1.5 per nine). He had a 2.50 ERA or better in every month except June (4.02) since he allowed 10 home runs in 40.1 innings. He dominated against both righties (.182) and lefties (.163). Even with all this success in 2019, Verlander fell flat in the postseason (1-4 with a 4.33 ERA, allowed eight home runs in 35.1 innings).
In his last five seasons, Verlander pitched more up in the strike zone (fly-ball rate – 45.5, 47.7, 42.7, 51.4, and 45.2) with a negative spike in his HR/FB rate (16.0) in 2019. His average fastball (94.8) underperformed slightly when compared to 2017 (95.8) and 2018 (95.6), but batters did struggle to hit his four-seamer (.221 BBA). All of his secondary pitches graded elite (changeup – .163 BAA, slider – .145 BAA, and curveball – .194 BAA).
Verlander is a volume, power arm with some cracks in his resume, and the age concern looms large.
However, Verlander is poised to build on his success. His ADP of 16 is trending down slightly compared to the early draft season. His floor projects to be a 3.00 ERA with 250-plus Ks and 15 wins while his ceiling looks to be in line with his 2018 & 2019 resume while with the Astros.
