2021 PGA The American Express - DFS Tiers, Betting Odds and a Top Fade
Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary
- Sony Open: Kevin Na ($7,500)
- Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)
- RSM Classic: Robert Streb ($6,300)
- The Masters: Dustin Johnson ($10,000)
- Vivint Houston Open: Carlos Ortiz ($6,700)
- Bermuda Championship: Brian Gay ($6,300)
- Zozo Championship: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
- CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak ($7,000)
- Shriners Hospitals for Children Open: Martin Laird ($6,400)
- Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia ($8,600)
- Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship: Hudson Swafford ($6,700)
- U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
- Safeway Open: Stewart Cink ($6,300)
$9,000+ Range
Ben Heisler: Russell Henley
DraftKings Price: ($9,000)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +3500
It's not often I can pick from the bottom of the barrel of this tier, but I love Henley in cash this week, and may love him even more at the betting window.
He comes in sporting terrific metrics: second in strokes gained: total, second in SG: tee-to-green, third in SG: ball striking and second in approach over his last 24 rounds.
Additionally, besides the OHL back in December, he hasn't missed a cut since July with the 3M Open. He's finished no worse than 37th in that span, including two top 5's, two top 10's, and most recently an 11th place finish at the Sony Open.
With Rahm's withdrawal, Cantlay becomes the safest play on the board, but at $2,100 higher priced. Koepka is also in the mix, but he's someone I prefer to roster once he's locked in after a missed cut. In 2020, Koepka's results after a MC were: 47, 62, 2, and 28
Mark Farris: Patrick Reed
DraftKings Price: ($10,200)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +1500
Picking a “favorite” in this tier is the most difficult pick for me. However, this week, I feel good about picking Patrick Reed. It’s not because he won this event in 2014. Hell, I won my club championship around that same time, but would get my clock cleaned now by the younger guys hitting the ball 30 to 40 yards past mine off the tee.
I’m not saying my game has collapsed and I’m definitely not saying Reed’s has. If anything, he’s gotten better. He finished T21 at the Sentry TOC. Outside of that, he’s T13, T3, T14, & T10 on Tour since September. Worldwide, he’s top 15 in each of his past 6 events prior to the TOC. His short game is right there with anyone, he can putt and he’s a good ball striker. What’s not to like? He’s also the lowest priced of the “5 figure gang” in this week’s pricing.
Bonus: I can't fault you for Sungjae Im ($9,900) or Abraham Ancer ($9,100) either. Ancer underperformed last week, but I’m not deterred. Ancer will give you more money for the other five guys, but as with most weeks, even one guy over $10K puts you around an $8K average for the rest of your team.
BET THE 2021 FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
$7,500 - $8,900
Ben Heisler: Sam Burns
DraftKings Price: ($8,300)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +5500
It's been a while since we last saw Burns play, going all the way back to the Houston Open in early November when he finished 7th thanks to a remarkable 11.1 SG: tee-to-green. The time away is a concern, but Burns has turned himself into one of the top drivers on tour with a very solid putting game to boot.
The big issue here? His chipping game has been brutal, coming in at 128th in the field in SG: around-the-green. But the rest of the numbers, including 1st off-the-tee and second in ball striking should have DFS players and bettors feeling optimistic about the high upside opportunity in Burns.
Mark Farris: Emiliano Grillo
DraftKings Price: ($7,800)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +6000
There is a lot of noise in this range. This time of year, I like guys that have been playing. Of course, playing well is a bonus and that’s what Grillo gives you. He’s made eight of his last nine cuts and until last week at the Sony Open, he was top 35 every time he made the cut. He didn’t play poorly at the Sony Open (-10), it was just simply a birdie-eagle feast and he just didn’t eat as much as the other guys.
He missed the cut in his only appearance here, but “one visit does not a course history decision make." He gains strokes with his ball striking and I look for that here too.
$7,400 and Under
Ben Heisler: Cameron Tringale
DraftKings Price: ($7,400)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +7000
Tringale comes in at number nine in my personalized Fantasy National model in large part due to his recent form, but also no clear-cut weaknesses in his game right now. He's 8th in SG: total, 15th in approach, and 4th in putting over his last 24 rounds.
Additionally, I think he'll be slightly lower-owned play compared to another highly ranked player in Peter Malnati, who comes in $200 less expensive on DraftKings. Again, the time away scares me a tad with no main events since the RSM back in late November, but Tringale was elite in that tournament and should carry over some confidence at PGA West.
Mark Farris: Sepp Straka
DraftKings Price: ($7,400)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +8500
I love this guy! And, as I have said before, it’s not just because his name could also have a “double-ought” designation - “Straka! Sepp Straka!”
At $7,400 and making eight of his last nine cuts, I smell value with a lot of upside potential! A T4 at this same event last year also gives me a good feeling. Many of you know I’m a current form/course history player and it’s nice when the two come together. It’s likely that a guy playing poorly can turn it around coming to a course he likes, but it’s MORE LIKELY to turn out well when the guy is already playing well when he gets there. Sign me up with a martini, shaken, not stirred!
Top Fade
Ben Heisler: Sungjae Im
DraftKings Price: ($9,900)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +2100
For the fifth most expensive golfer in the DraftKings field (and sixth lowest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook), I just can't get there for Im right now.
Could he lap the field and dominate this week? Of course! It's Sungjae Im! He's had stretches where he's in the elite conversation with the likes of the top golfers on tour, and he's one of my favorite plays to jump on early rather than late. But I just can't get there right now with how unreliable his short game has been as of late.
Over his past 24 rounds, Im ranks 102nd in SG: around-the-green, and even worse with his putter at 117th in the field. A 56th place finish at the Sony was even more disappointing after a T5 at the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii the previous week. I could end up looking foolish fading a player as talented as Im, but I'll spend my money, AND DraftKings dollars elsewhere.
Mark Farris: Rickie Fowler
DraftKings Price: ($9,300)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +4600
I like Rickie, I really do! But, until he gets consistent again and quits missing cuts at less loaded events (Mayakoba - although it was better than it has been), I can trust him above $9,000. No other reason than that. Look for Rickie to finish top 10 because I said this, but it’s still not worth the risk to me.
As I’ve said before, I hate fades! But, you have to take a stand in DFS and of the guys above $9K (which I personally think is a requirement to fade someone), the only one I trust less than Rickie at this tournament is Jon Rahm - and he withdrew!
ENTER LINEUPS FOR THE AMERICAN EXPRESS THIS THURSDAY AT DRAFTKINGS
