2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - DFS Plays, Bets, and Fades
Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka ($8,800)
- Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed ($10,100)
- The American Express: Si Woo Kim ($8,200)
- Sony Open: Kevin Na ($7,500)
- Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)
- RSM Classic: Robert Streb ($6,300)
- The Masters: Dustin Johnson ($10,000)
- Vivint Houston Open: Carlos Ortiz ($6,700)
- Bermuda Championship: Brian Gay ($6,300)
- Zozo Championship: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
- CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak ($7,000)
- Shriners Hospitals for Children Open: Martin Laird ($6,400)
- Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia ($8,600)
- Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship: Hudson Swafford ($6,700)
- U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
- Safeway Open: Stewart Cink ($6,300)
BETTING ODDS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...
$9,000+ Range
Ben Heisler: Jason Day
DraftKings Price: $11,200
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +625
You may recall a certain someone shouting to anyone who would listen that I would not play Jason Day just a few weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open.
"Is there proof," you ask? Indeed!
It turned out to be a solid fade. Day missed the cut and has missed cuts three of his last five tournaments, including back-to-back at the Waste Management Phoenix Open as well as the Farmers.
But Pebble Beach is different. The form always seems to come back for Day who has never missed a cut; and has six top six finishes and seven top 10's out of 11 times playing here.
And hell, if Koepka can go from missing a cut to magic the following week, one can only hope the same can be said for Day.
Mark Farris: Will Zalatoris and Francesco Molinari
DraftKings Price: Zalatoris ($9,900) | Molinari ($9,300)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: Zalatoris (+1800) | Molinari (+2200)
I’m going to give you a couple guys this week in the higher price ranges. Why? It’s hard to eliminate some of these guys and it is sometimes nice to have a recommendation from the top and bottom halves of the tier.
Will Zalatoris is the new pair of shoes that people want to wear. He’s made 23 of his last 24 cuts at different levels of the Tour including 3 of his last 4 in the Top 20. He’s gaining strokes from tee-to-green and approach in each of his last two tournaments. The wider fairways at Pebble Beach will also help with his tee-to-green game and he putts better on POA greens. With DJ withdrawing, his ownership will likely increase now though.
Francesco is a fall back to one of my favorite plays from past years. He’s been struggling in recent months. However, his last two events were California events and both have resulted in Top 10s. He’s made 3 of his last 5 cuts and, when he’s made the cut, his worst finish was a T15 at the Vivint Houston Open. Although he hasn’t played much at Pebble, Spyglass is an easier course and he gets to play it too. I think he makes the cut! Given his recent success, I think he’s a good play this week that will see lower ownership given the names around him.
DraftKings Price: $9,400
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +3400
$7,500 - $8,900
Ben Heisler: Matthew NeSmith
DraftKings Price: $8,000
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +7500
Welcome to the $8K club, Mr. NeSmith!
After a very solid showing at last week's Waste Management, NeSmith enters with some of the best metrics of the group, despite two missed cuts in early January.
Over his last 24 rounds, NeSmith ranks 3rd overall in Strokes Gained: approach, which is arguably the most important strokes gained category for Pebble Beach. During that time, NeSmith has gained an impressive 16 strokes just on approach alone.
I much prefer NeSmith's betting odds to his DK price, but am happy to take on both this week.
Mark Farris: Cameron Tringale & Phil Mickelson
DraftKings Price: Tringale ($8,500) | Mickelson ($8,600)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: Tringale +4500 | Oosthuizen +5000
Cameron Tringale is a name that has been around for some time now, but yet, he often goes unnoticed. My model that I use with 60% Current Form, 20% Key Stats, and 20% Course History, ranks him 4th this week. That’s right behind Paul Casey who is $1,900 more. Cameron’s last 4 events have produced four Top 20s, including his last two events. I think, and sometimes I do that too much, that he may be popular if people look at his current play, but we could get lucky and more people go to Phil because of his history at Pebble.
This leads to my other call. Phil Mickelson. This is PURELY a course horse play. Phil’s made his last two cuts, but this isn’t the Phil of 10 or even 5 years ago. However, his last five appearances at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am have resulted in, from most to least recent, a 3rd -Win - T2-65-2. Not sure where the 65 came from, but you can’t really argue with it. Although I hoped above for sake of lowering Tringale’s ownership, I don’t this Phil will be highly owned.
$7,400 and Under
Ben Heisler: Scott Piercy
DraftKings Price: $7,100
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +17500
A pure longshot play based on the odds and price range, but since the theme of these plays has revolved around recent form, Piercy makes for a very intriguing play. In his last three rounds at Pebble Beach, Piercy has gone T20, T10, and T18. If you want to grab him as a T20 play, you can still get him for +400 on DK Sportsbook.
Piercy also has a chance to go fairly underowned considering his back-to-back missed cuts at the Sony Open and American Express. Yet over his past 24 rounds, Piercy ranks 14th in SG: total, 21st off-the-tee, and 20th in approach. Don't sleep on Piercy this week.
Mark Farris: Michael Thompson
DraftKings Price: $7,200
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +7500
Well, I did it again last week! Michael Thompson didn’t play horridly, but -1 in two days at Waste Management won’t cut it.
Screw it! I’m going back to Michael Thompson. Ignoring last week, he hadn’t missed a cut since last June. His last five events have been, from most recent, MC-T5-T25-T21-T15. I’ll take the same risk at the same price.
Top Fade
Ben Heisler: Will Zalatoris
DraftKings Price: $9,900
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +1800
I love Zalatoris' game and think he's an absolute star in the making on Tour. But he only has one professional appearance at Pebble Beach and it didn't go well for him with negative strokes gained in every statistical category other than off-the-tee.
The courses are small; hovering just around 7,050 yards or so at both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Zalatoris can bomb it off the tee with the best on Tour, but it's just not as significant this week for him to be successful.
He's red-hot and ranks fourth in my Fantasy National personalized model, but I'll go against the grain here and fade him this week, especially with the putting concerns (130th in SG: putting).
Mark Farris: Rickie Fowler
DraftKings Price: $9,200
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +4500
Short and sweet here! Rickie isn’t playing well. When you would be willing to take at least three guys priced $1,000 lower than him in a lineup. He has no history at this tournament (like Phil) that would encourage me to take a chance on him. I know Rickie is an immense talent, but when he starts doing CBD commercials for people with joint pain, I’m starting to wonder if Rickie has some underlying pain issue. I know, that’s a stretch! But I just saw the commercial last night and wondered… Rickie?
