NFL DFS Week 8: Picks, Plays & Values
After researching the NFL player pool at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end each week over the past few seasons, I will go on a new path for the daily games in 2021. I continue to make the projections for Sports Illustrated, and this baseline will be used to identify possible values at each position during the season.
In the daily games, we see each week players with low salaries post difference-maker scores. The key to winning is mixing a core of studs with some undervalued options that post impact scores for their price point.
Depending on the format, the goal is to find players that will score three or four times their salary to have a shot at GPP (grand prize pool).
Quarterback
Top Tier: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills ($8,100/$8,800)
The Bills have won six straight games against the Dolphins while scoring a combined 232 points. Over this span, Allen gained a combined 1,740 yards with 20 touchdowns. Buffalo dominated Miami in Week 2 (35-0), starting a run of 177 points scored over their past five matchups. Allen leads quarterbacks in scoring (29.59 FPPG) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. He finished with over 30.00 fantasy points in three of his last four starts (40.80, 39.65, 33.25).
Miami allowed over 300 yards passing in four of its previous five matchups (LV – 386/2, TB – 452/5, JAX – 319/1, ATL – 336/2) with failure in three contests defending wide receivers (13/259/1, 23/349/4, 18/232/1). In addition, they allow 8.0 yards per pass attempt and have a minimal pass rush (12 sacks).
SI Sportsbook has Buffalo favored by 14 points with an over/under of 48.5. Allen looks positioned for another big day after losing a disappointing game to the Titans in Week 6. However, he needs Miami to put up a better fight on the scoreboard than they did earlier in the season to fill his salary bucket.
More: Patrick Mahomes – 32.79 fantasy points
Value: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings ($6,500/$7,600)
After two down games (203/1 and 275/1), Cousins beat the Panthers for 389 combined yards and three scores in Week 6. He’s passed for over 300 yards in three contests, plus three touchdowns in half of his six starts. Cousins has been a better player on the road this season (868/8 with no interceptions). In 2020 vs. the Cowboys at home, he finished with 314 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Dallas has played better defending quarterbacks over the past two games (294/1 and 229/2), but they still rank 29th in quarterback defense (25.44 FPPG). The Cowboys allowed over 300 passing yards in their first four games (TB – 379/4, LAC – 338/1, PHI – 326/2, CAR – 301/2). Overall, quarterbacks gain 8.2 yards per pass attempt with some success on the ground (26/89/2).
This matchup has an over/under of 55 in almost an even matchup, pointing to a high-scoring affair. Dallas held running backs to under 100 rushing yards in five of his six matchups, signaling that Cousins will need to throw the ball to win this game.
More: Jameis Winston – 22.99 fantasy points
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) fends off San Francisco 49ers cornerback Josh Norman (26) during the first half of the game Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021, at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. Indianapolis Colts Visit The San Francisco 49ers For Nfl Week 7 At Levi S Stadium In Santa Clara Calif Sunday Oct 24 2021
Running Back
Top Tier: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts ($7,200/$8,500)
At some point in 2021, the Colts will figure out they need to get Taylor the ball as much as possible. He has over 100 combined yards in his last four starts, leading to 553 combined yards with six touchdowns and 10 catches while averaging 6.5 yards per rush. As a result, Taylor scored 1.075 fantasy points per touch in PPR leagues, compared to 0.8926 for Derrick Henry. Over the past two weeks, Indy had him on the field for 65 and 69 percent of their plays (highest totals of the year).
The Titans have a top 10 defense against running backs (20.27 FPPG – 9th), but they allow 4.5 yards per rush. The Jaguars’ offense had the most success against them with their running backs (179 combined yards with one touchdown and two catches).
The Colts have a top offensive line, and Tennessee could come into this game flat after picking up a pair of big wins against the Bills and Chiefs. Indianapolis listed Taylor as questionable for this week’s game with a rib issue. However, if he is cleared by Sunday, the all-in card looks to be in play.
More: Derrick Henry – 30.14 fantasy points
Value: Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,000/$5,900)
With Miles Sanders expected to miss multiple weeks with an ankle issue, Gainwell looks poised to see the majority of touches at running back for the Eagles. In Week 7, Philly had him on the field for 51 percent of their snaps, but they did get Boston Scott involved as well after the game got out of hand. Over the first seven games, Gainwell scored 66.40 fantasy points in PPR leagues, highlighted by his success in Week 4 (89 combined yards with one touchdown and six catches). He averaged 1.476 fantasy points per touch over this stretch.
The Lions played well in two weeks defending running backs (5.80 and 9.8 fantasy points), but they rank 29th in fantasy points allowed per game (28.86). Green Bay (45.90), Chicago (39.30), and Cincinnati (43.30) had the most success. Running backs have 12 touchdowns with plenty of production in the passing game (30/274/6).
I expect Philly to rotate in two backs, but Gainwell won the RB2 job over the seven games. His opportunity should be well above his salary heading into action in Week 8.
More: Darrel Williams – 19.30 fantasy points
Wide Receiver
Top Tier: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills ($8,100/$7,300)
Coming out of the bye week, Diggs is the 17th-highest scoring wide receiver (15.88 FPPG) in PPR leagues. Last year, he averaged 20.54 fantasy points per game while setting career highs in catches (127), yards (1,535), and targets (166). This season, he averages 9.7 targets (10.34 in 2020), but his catch rate (63.4) is well below his breakout year (76.5 percent).
Miami sits 30th in wide receiver defense (101/1,384/10 on 153 targets). Most of the damage came in three matchups (LV – 13/259/1, TB – 23/349/4, and JAC – 18/232/1). CB Xavien Howard and CB Byron Jones played last week after missing time in Week 7.
The Dolphins will try to get Diggs matched up with CB Nik Needham to gain the most significant advantage, but he does have the edge over all of Miami’s cornerbacks. The investment in Diggs comes from him needing a correction game to move up the wideout rankings.
More: Justin Jefferson – 29.31 fantasy points
Value: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles ($5,500/$6,200)
Smith hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. After seven games, he has 32 catches for 406 yards and a score on 53 targets, ranking him 40th in wide receiver scoring (11.37 FPPG) in PPR leagues. Based on his current salary, Smith delivered two playable games (6/71/1 and 7/122).
Detroit fell to 22nd defending wideouts (86/1,346/7) after the Rams’ wide receivers beat their defense for 20 catches, 269 yards and three touchdowns. The Lions allow 15.7 yards per catch with a high catch rate (68.8).
Smith will be active in this game; a score and over 100 yards receiving are well within reach.
More: Corey Davis – 19.79 fantasy points
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports
Tight End
Top Tier: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,500/$8,000)
The Patrick Mahomes-to-Kelce combination only has one touchdown over the past five games. Kansas City gave him double-digit targets (10, 11, 12) over his previous three starts. He has a floor of six catches in seven contests while gaining over 100 yards in two matchups.
New York held tight ends to short games (5/36 and 2/12) over the last two weeks, lifting them to 18th in tight end defense (37/341/4). Over the first four weeks, a tight end scored in each game, with Denver having the most success (10/85/1).
The Chiefs need a statement game, and they need their star players to shine on Monday night. Unfortunately for those who have played him, Kelce has yet to pay off in the daily contest in 2021 due to his high salary.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots ($4,200/$5,500)
Mac Jones has delivered a touchdown to Henry in each of his last four matchups. Over this span, he has 14 catches for 155 yards on 19 targets. The Patriots have looked his way only 32 times (4.6 targets per game) this year, but Henry still ranks 10th in tight end scoring (10.63 FPPG).. Henry faces his former team for the first time on Sunday.
The Chargers have allowed double-digit fantasy points to tight ends in every game. They sit 29th defending tight ends (36/476/5), with two disaster showings (KC – 11/122/1 and CLE – 7/149/1). A tight end has a touchdown vs. Los Angeles in each of the past four games.
More: Tyler Higbee – 14.97 fantasy points.
The Week 8 projections are up at Sports Illustrated, with a second update coming Saturday morning after all practices close Friday night.
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Senior analyst Shawn Childs is a multi-sport, high-stakes fantasy legend with lifetime earnings in the high six-figures. He has been providing in-depth, analytical breakdowns for years all while helping his subscribers to countless titles and winnings across season-long & DFS. An inaugural inductee of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn can teach you how to prep like a champ!
