Mike McDaniel's Fantasy Impact on Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins Offense
The Miami Dolphins' hiring of Mike McDaniel comes in the wake of all the dramatic revelations brought forth by former head coach Brian Flores. It’s perfectly reasonable to disagree with his firing, too, but today we’re focused on the coming months, and possibly years, that McDaniel will be at the helm.
For the last five years, he’s been with the 49ers’ offensive coaching staff, most recently as their offensive coordinator. From 2017-20, McDaniel was their run game coordinator. He began his career as a coaching intern with the Broncos back in 2005 and he’s been alongside 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan for the majority of those years. Now striking off on his own, we need to evaluate his offensive philosophy, player usage and game planning to project how he will use his talents in South Beach.
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McDaniel has said he wants to “get all the greatness out of [Tua Tagovailoa]” in a viral tweet in which the new head coach was making a call to his quarterback. Then, fantasy managers collectively salivated when McDaniel stated in a recent article in the Miami Herald that he would “start [Waddle] in fantasy leagues.”
It’s never too early to get the fantasy masses to grab a seat on the hype train. So let’s take a closer look at how McDaniel could impact the offense.
QB Tua Tagovailoa
As I’ve written about in my Dynasty Watch series this past season, I’m higher than most on Tagovailoa. After an arduous beginning to his pro career, the former Crimson Tide star seems to have found his way as an NFL quarterback. Are there concerns? Sure. The arm strength is underwhelming, the Dolphins offensive line isn’t anything to write home about and Miami leadership always seemed to tempt Tua’s fate by entertaining trade offers from the Texans (Deshaun Watson). There were plenty of other “not interested” trade rumors swirling a few months ago.
If we want to think about player comps for Tagovailoa, we don’t have to look far from McDaniel’s last QB: Jimmy Garoppolo. A signal-caller with average arm strength, quick diagnostics of pass plays, and consistently finding the open man on short-to-intermediate routes. Tags is at his best when he can make a pre-snap read and deftly hit a short route with an accurate, timely throw. He does a great job with run-pass options (RPOs) and the Dolphins 8-1 finish to the 2021 season was fueled by, besides great defense, the coaching staff finally seeming to put Tagovailoa in the best position to win by playing to his strengths. His completion percentage improved, the RPOs were clicking better and this is where we hope to find the silver lining.
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Play-action has been the bread-and-butter for the 49ers’ offense under Shanahan. Tagovailoa is not suddenly an elite QB option and expectations will always be unfair to him because he hasn’t and will likely never be the splash success guys like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have been.
Outlook: The floor is very high, but the ceiling is still lacking. I don’t mind snagging Tua as my backup, but I don’t believe this offense has the talent necessary to support him as anything more than a very high QB2.
TE Mike Gesicki
First note here is that Gesicki is a pending free agent. Miami does have a ton of cap space but is the juice worth the squeeze? We’ll find out.
Despite finishing tied for eighth among tight ends in PPR scoring, preseason expectations were a bit higher for the former Penn State standout. There wasn’t much flash, as Gesicki only caught eight or more passes twice. It’s not possible to have much of a fantasy impact if you only score two touchdowns. While you can make the case for some positive regression in his touchdown totals, I think it’s unwise to compare Gesicki to George Kittle. Gesicki only had one game with 90% or more of the offensive snaps and had 13 games with less than 80%. That’s because he’s still lacking as a blocker, something that keeps Kittle on the field at all times. His use in the run game adds a layer of deception as Kittle will frequently run routes off an in-line set. Gesicki on the other hand is more often split out wide. Ultimately, what will help Gesicki most is a more efficient offense that doesn’t suffer from so many three-and-outs, can move the chains and get in the red zone more frequently. He still finished tied for third in targets among TEs (112) and a few more touchdowns next year could go a long way in a crowded second TE tier.
RB Myles Gaskin
We were all hoping for just a little more from Gaskin in 2021, but we got a near duplicate of his 2020 season statistically—and he only played in 10 games that year compared to all 17 in 2021. My gut tells me McDaniel and most of the organization would be in agreement that they need to draft a running back. We all saw what McDaniel did with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel. Gaskin is entering his contract year in 2022 and while that can be a good sign the player will put everything he’s got into the coming year, I won’t hang my hat on that making Gaskin much of a value.
The problem with Gaskin isn’t really his problem at all. It’s the offensive line. Miami hired former Los Angeles Chargers run game coordinator and OL coach Frank Smith to be their new offensive coordinator. Smith has been an NFL coach since 2010 with deep experience with offensive lines. An in-demand guy hired twice in the last two seasons must be doing something right.
But as stated, we have to worry about a Day 2 or 3 pick being spent on another running back. A new coaching staff may not even view Gaskin as their top back. Phillip Lindsay, Salvon Ahmed and Duke Johnson were on the roster but are not currently under contract. Best-case scenario, Gaskin gets another honest crack to be this team’s RB1 and will see a decline in his ADP this offseason after a disappointing 2021. Worst case? A draft pick and notable free-agent signing cloud the clarity of the running back corps.
WR Jaylen Waddle
It’s easy to get hyperbolic here. Waddle finished with the second-most receiving yards among rookie receivers (1,026) behind Ja’Marr Chase (1,455). Exceeding 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie has become dang-near commonplace in recent years (it was a feat only accomplished 20 times before 2019). That threshold has been broken five times since 2019, and three times in 2021 (Waddle, Chase and Kyle Pitts). What can McDaniel do for Waddle? Well, I think the first thing we should get out of our heads is Waddle becoming Deebo Samuel 2.0.
You may be thinking—wait, you just said the Dolphins need a running back! Well, Waddle is 5-10 and 185 pounds. Samuel is 6-0 and 215 pounds. Waddle only had a handful of carries at Alabama and saw two carries in his rookie campaign. Is it possible McDaniel throws the kitchen sink at Waddle to get him involved in the run game? Sure, of course. Any coach worth his salt is going to push the talents of his players and see what he can get out of them. I’m just not convinced it’s a great fit for Waddle’s play style.
All that said, a more productive run game and, therefore, an improved focus on play-action and RPOs would be huge for Waddle. It would give him extra time to get downfield and challenge the secondary since he’s been mostly used on short routes and did a lot of his damage after getting the ball in his hands. Again, you could argue that this sounds like Samuel. But Samuel is sudden and sharp in his cuts, like a running back. Waddle is just flat-out elusive. He’s running away from the defense. Samuel is breaking ankles or putting his helmet in people’s chests.
Waddle finished with 104 receptions, a new NFL rookie record. Waddle broke the record held for 18 years by Anquan Boldin (2003, 101). Our capitalistic worldview makes us believe we should see growth every year, but Waddle doing that again is a tall order. Back-to-back seasons with full health, 140 targets and over 100 receptions is a blessing, not a locked-in expectation. He can do it and we hope he can do it again, but I believe this is a trap. Waddle is, right now, a top 40 player in most of the rankings I’ve seen. This places him at the end of the third round or start of the fourth. That may be where his average draft position ends up, but I believe it’ll continue to creep closer to 30 in the coming months. As it allows based on my roster construction in those early rounds, I could consider Waddle at that price but we’re looking at things through aqua-tinted glasses.
Conclusion
This is a new coaching staff taking over a mostly mediocre offense in a tough division where third-best is all anyone’s expecting. The Bills and Patriots both have excellent defenses. Tagovailoa threw for 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, so it seems like he may need 30 games to do what a true QB1 can do statistically. There is plenty to look forward to and we should feel optimistic; however, I get the sense that other fantasy managers will be just a little more enthusiastic than me and snipe these Dolphins a half-round ahead of me on draft day.
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