NFL DFS Week 15 Picks: Bargain Buys and Spend-Up Studs
If you’re looking to set some DFS lineups for this Sunday’s main slate of NFL games, consider these players that should return value at every salary price point.
There is no one game that stands out this week, with SI Sportsbook’s highest projected total for the week at only 49. That game is Kansas City at Houston. You’ll see a few players from that game listed below.
I’m also liking a lot of the players in the Titans-Chargers game, though you’ll have to spend up to get them.
We hit the bullseye last week in our value tier with Jared Goff, D.J. Chark and Evan Engram all putting up eye-popping numbers. Let’s see if we can hit again. Feel free to mix and match. You don’t have to stack!
Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Top-Tier Plays
Quarterback
Justin Herbert, Chargers
Herbert is looking better and better each week, and it’s safe to say the rib injury is behind him. With all his weapons available last week, the Chargers upset the Dolphins with Herbert throwing for a season-high 367 yards. This week’s matchup should have more goodness on tap, as the Chargers get a Tennessee team that has allowed the most DFS points to opposing QBs across the last four contests, including more than 314 passing yards and two TDs per game. Wheels up.
Running Back
Derrick Henry, Titans
Henry, on the other side of this matchup, is also a smash play. Henry bounced back in a big way last Sunday, burning the Jaguars for 155 ground yards and a TD on Sunday. This week’s matchup with the Chargers should also go well, as the Chargers are allowing a league-leading 5.52 yards per carry this year.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen, Chargers
Allen was back in a big way last week vs. Miami, catching 12 of his 14 targets for 91 yards vs. Miami. Tennessee is allowing the most DFS points per game to opposing wideouts this year (43.4).
Tight End
Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Kelce is the only tight end worth spending up for ever.
I kid. Well, sort of.
Kelce is averaging a full eight DFS points more per game than the next closest tight end this year (Dallas Goedert). In fact, he has the 12th-most DFS points overall, ahead of Justin Fields, Geno Smith and Derrick Henry. He’s Patrick Mahomes’s favorite target and he’s playing in the game with the highest total of the week.
Jerome Miron/USA Today Sports
NFL DFS Mid-Tier Plays
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Prescott has a favorable matchup this week with a Jacksonville team that has allowed the seventh-most DFS points to opposing QBs. The Dallas offense has scored the third most points this season and since Prescott’s return in Week 7, they have scored the most points per game (37.7) in the NFL. Dak has thrown two or more TDs in five of his last six games, and he should have another two or more on Sunday.
Running Back
Miles Sanders, Eagles
Sanders went off last week for 144 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Giants. Good for us – we took the over on his rushing player prop on SI Sportsbook! This week Sanders has another cake matchup vs. a Chicago team that is allowing the fifth-most DFS points to opposing runners.
Isaiah Pacheco, Chiefs
Pacheco is the clear early-down back for the Chiefs, and he gets an ideal matchup this week against a Houston run defense allowing the most points to the position this year. Pacheco has not seen fewer than 13 carries a game since Week 10 and the Texans are allowing an average of 5.06 yards per carry. Game script should be in his favor, too, as the Chiefs are favored by more than two touchdowns at SI Sportsbook.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson, Jets
It seems hard to believe, but Wilson is still priced well in DFS. Wilson has had three straight games with 78 yards or more, and he’s seen an average of 10 targets per game in that span. This week’s matchup with the Lions is juicy, as they have allowed the third-most DFS points to opposing wide receivers.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz, Cowboys
Schultz is the number two target in the NFL’s number three offense and he’s facing the Jaguars, who have allowed the ninth-most points to the position. Schultz has seen 20 targets across the last three contests.
NFL DFS Bargain-Tier Plays
Quarterback
Derek Carr, Raiders
We did like Mike White in this spot until the Jets ruled him out Friday. That means we pencil in Zach Wilson, right? Um, no. So why go with Carr? Most people likely think Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense will make it tough on Carr, but here’s an interesting history note: When Josh McDaniels was the Broncos head coach in 2009 and he faced the Patriots, Kyle Orton threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns. Just sayin’...
Running Back
Zonovan Knight, Jets
Knight continues to lead the Jets’ backfield even with the return of Michael Carter. Across his three career-starts, the undrafted free agent has rushed for 230 yards and caught all 10 of his targets for another 68 yards through the air. This matchup with Detroit is a good one, as the Lions have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns (T-3rd) to running backs this year.
Wide Receiver
Chris Moore, Texans
Moore caught 10 of his 11 targets last week for 112 yards with no Brandin Cooks and no Nico Collins vs. a tough Dallas defense. It looks like Cooks and Collins will be out again on Sunday, and the matchup is excellent. Not only are the Texans expected to be playing from behind by the largest margin this weekend, the Chiefs are allowing the fourth-most DFS points per game to opposing wideouts this year.
Tight End
Tyler Conkiln, Jets
Conklin has an excellent matchup vs. the Lions, who have allowed the fourth-most DFS points to the position. Among NFL tight ends, Conklin ranks fourth in snaps, seventh in targets and eighth in routes run. Not only that, but Mike White has targeted Conklin 15 times across the past two games. If you’re spending down at TE, Conklin could be your guy.
