Surprise 2023 Fantasy Stars Emerging from 2022 NFL Playoffs: Brock Purdy, Jerick McKinnon, K.J. Osborn
A year ago, Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis had a monster performance in the AFC championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs. In that contest, he collected eight catches on 10 targets for 201 yards and four touchdowns. From that game, Davis carried with him certified sleeper status ahead of the 2022 season. While he had a decent year (48/836/7), Davis didn't live up to those high expectations for fantasy managers despite having a couple nice games to begin the season.
That's the exercise here.
With Davis's breakout performance in mind, here are some players who could show up big this postseason and drum up some hype for the 2023 fantasy season.
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QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
I've been calling it the "Tom Brady Exception.” Meaning a quarterback does so well, perhaps leading to a Super Bowl title when filling in for the starter, that they are the undeniable future starter. The question already is out there: Who is the 49ers starting quarterback if everyone is healthy? Purdy, Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo. To me, the answer is clear: Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. No quarterback controversy here. Since Week 13, Purdy has at least two passing touchdowns every game. He's been the QB18, 8, 14, 13, 9 and 5 across those six contests with a 6-0 record.
A continued run in the coming weeks, buoyed by San Francisco's stifling defense, gives Purdy the inside track to the starting job to begin the 2023 season. While this offense does want to run the ball, control the clock and play hard-nosed defense first and foremost, Purdy's budding star would command the attention of fantasy managers looking for a young high-upside quarterback in the middle rounds—the ideal "wait for a quarterback" option next year.
RB Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs
In case you hadn't noticed, McKinnon has been the checkdown of choice for Patrick Mahomes. In Weeks 14 and 15, McKinnon went for a total of 256 combined yards with 15 receptions on 17 targets for four total touchdowns. He was the RB1 in both those weeks! While one could argue against McKinnon because he's been so touchdown-dependent and this pace couldn't possibly last much longer, we've been waiting for someone—anyone—to take the reins of this backfield.
It is possible Clyde Edwards-Helaire could return from a high-ankle sprain that's kept him out since Week 11, I imagine head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy don't want to mess too much with a good thing. Even if the carries don't fall in McKinnon's favor, his high-volume receiving presence in this offense delivers a great fantasy scoring floor that will keep him at the forefront of conversations about who will be the Chiefs' primary back during next year's drafts.
WR K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings
Adam Thielen will be 33 at the start of the 2023 season and he's set to make about $13.4 million next year, counting just shy of $20 million if made a cap hit. Meanwhile, Osborn would be entering the final year of his rookie deal with everything on the line to play for should he not sign an extension by then. Ideal situation would be if the Vikings cut Thielen and give Osborn more snaps (since Thielen out-snapped Osborn every game, except Week 18.
With defenses throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Justin Jefferson, Osborn has shined to close the 2022 season. In three of his last four games, he's finished in the top-12 of fantasy wide receivers, including a dominating Week 15 where he posted 10/157/1 for 31.7 PPR points. His shine continuing into the playoffs would certainly carry over into sleeper status in 2023 and outpace his 2022 WR45 finish.
WR Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
While consistency has been an issue this year, Jones has had more than his fair share of big-time games this season. He's been a top-seven wide receiver four times— most recently, he finished as the WR1 in Week 15, when he caught six passes for 109 yards and three touchdowns. If we assume Trevor Lawrence progresses a little bit more next year, Jones's renaissance could continue. For all those who mocked at the high-dollar mount given to Christian Kirk this offseason, he is the current WR12 and Jones isn't terribly far behind at WR26. Fantasy managers' skepticism of the Jaguars and tendency to prefer younger players will likely suppress Jones's draft value. There's just no way he'll be close to the 26th wide receiver drafted next year, even if he explodes this postseason. So not only is he a value now, Jones has an opportunity to show that value against the Chargers in the wild card round.
