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Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Bryce Harper Must Improve Strikeout Rate

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Bryce Harper may be one of the most popular players in the MLB but the Phillies right fielder let down a lot of fantasy baseball players in 2019, largely in part do to his 26.1 strikeout rate. Harper had 178 strikeouts in 2019, up nine from the previous season, and a long ways away from his career-low (99) in 2017. Despite a career-high 114 RBIs, his batting average was just .260. It all adds up to the many reasons Sports Illustrated’s fantasy baseball analyst Shawn Childs and fantasy baseball players, in general, were frustrated with Harper in 2019. 
But should the tone on Harper change for 2020? That’s the question we asked Childs and fellow fantasy baseball analyst Ben Heisler.

Read the transcript for their answer and analysis on Harper:

Bill Enright: Despite his popularity, Bryce Harper's strikeout rate rose for the third straight season, which is a problem for fantasy baseball players. Let's talk with Sports Illustrated. Fantasy baseball analyst Ben Heisler and Shawn Childs. Shawn, I'm going to go to you first because your write up on Bryce Harper, you said you were a little disappointed in his 2019 season. Can you see a rebound from the stud outfielder in 2020?

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Shawn Childs: Yeah, he is one of those guys that you really think he's gonna be one of the top players in baseball. Then when you have them on your team and his batting average underachieves, you're kind of disappointed. When the seasons said and done and you look at the stats, you're like, "well, that wasn't really that bad..." The only thing that really hurt you was in one category: the strikeout rate was too high. Yet, he does a lot of things well. A couple of years ago, his contact batting average was .441, and in 2017, it was .417, but last year it slid to .377 with a higher strike rate and it just doesn't match up. He's in a lineup with a better leadoff hitter. McCutchen got hurt last year and even Rhys Hoskins had kind of a down season. So there's a lot to like with the supporting cast, and he's kind of discounted in drafts. He's a player that I would definitely be interested in as a value. I think he could bounce back and especially a shortened season could really take off and maybe correct that batting average if it comes with a better approach.

Bill Enright: Ben, let's talk ADP right now. Harper's going somewhere in the second round. Are you drafting or passing?

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Ben Heisler: Yeah, I'm right there with Shawn, I'm drafting Bryce Harper. I think it's an ideal spot if you go up. Shawn wrote about if you go get your ace in your first round, you can come back and get that 13 year, 330 million dollar man. That's a stick as a cornerstone part of your fantasy baseball team. You know, his on-base percentage, his weighted on-base average, did not look particularly good a season ago. But he also had more home runs. He had 14 more RBI and about 100 less plate appearances this season ago. So I do think Bryce Harper, especially, wants the top of the lineup starts to get going in Philadelphia with guys Rhys Hoskins hidden behind him should be able to provide a little bit more stability. I do think this is more of the season that we expected out of Bryce Harper coming up in 2020 than the one that we thought that we would get in 2019.

Bill Enright: Great insight. We appreciate it. Plenty more draft or pass analysis for all MLB players. You can check it out by going to SI.com/fantasy.

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