NFL odds: Expert picks for Packers vs 49ers, Titans vs Chiefs - Sports Illustrated

How Sharp Bettors Are Approaching the NFL Conference Championship Games

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The sharp information out in Vegas supplied only to Sports Illustrated has been red-hot since mid October. The information finished up the NCAA Bowl season 7-4 ATS and is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the NFL Playoffs over the past two weeks. Over the last two months, the sharps have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks in both NFL and college football wagering. The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated Gambling's Vegas Insider, is currently on an amazing 22-7-1 ATS (76%) run on all football plays. It’s now time to jump into arguably the best weekend of NFL betting. 

AFC Championship Game

No. 6 Tennessee (11-7 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) at No. 2 Kansas City (13-4 SU, 11-5-1 ATS)

Moneyline: Tennessee: (+280) | Kansas City: (-360)
Spread: TEN: +7 (-110) | KC: -7 (-110)
Total: 52.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 52.5 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: TEN: 61% | KC: 39%
Game Info: January 19th, 2020 3:05 p.m. ET / 12:05 p.m. PT | CBS

The Tennessee Titans became just the second underdog of 10 or more points since 2011 to win outright when they upset Lamar Jackson and the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens 28-12. The other team was the 2012 Baltimore Ravens who went on to win Super Bowl XLVII by a score of 34-31 over the San Francisco 49ers. The Titans have made this deep magical run to the AFC Title game on the back of a suddenly unstoppable Derrick Henry. The powerful running back, who just ran for 195 yards in last week’s upset of the Ravens, became the first player in NFL history to rush for at least 180 yards in three consecutive regular season or postseason games, while recording 30-plus carries in three straight games. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs arrive at their second consecutive AFC Championship game after pulling off one of the greatest comebacks in the NFL playoff history, coming back from a 24-point deficit to defeat the Houston Texans 51-31. The Chiefs scored 41 unanswered points, shockingly covering the 9-point spread with ease.

Nearly every book that opened the line with a 7.5-point spread or higher on Kansas City has since come back and sits at -7 at nearly every shop both locally and globally. The line movement we have seen is thanks in part to over 60% of significant public steam backing the Titans. The sharps feel differently and apparently are not convinced the Titan defense can force as many mistakes by Mahomes as they did Jackson. As impressive as the 16-point win over Baltimore was, we should remember that Ryan Tannehill threw for a mere 88 yards passing and Tennessee was outgained 530-300 by the Ravens. The difference was Baltimore had eight drives inside the Tennessee 40 and only came away with 12 points thanks in part to three Jackson turnovers combined with four turnovers on down after going an abysmal 0-4 on fourth downs. The sharps don’t see Mahomes being shut down in that same regard, especially with the experience of one AFC Championship loss to the Patriots last season fresh in his mind. If the Titans fall behind, can you actually put your hard-earned money behind a quarterback who has only completed 15 passes over the two playoff wins? In addition, the Ravens lacked the offensive weapons the Chiefs possess in the league’s top passing offense, led by wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.

The Titans ran for a season-high 225 yards in their Week 10 come-from-behind 35-32 win over the Chiefs. However, it’s important to note that despite the immense success on the ground, the Titans trailed by nine points in the fourth quarter, not to mention Mahomes was still limited in his first game back from his knee injury. The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC and the sharps are betting on Andy Reid getting to his first Super Bowl appearance as coach of the Chiefs. Henry is playing at too high of level to be held down and will get his yards, but the Kansas City offense will be too much to overcome. Lay the points with arguably the best signal-caller in the game, who is 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since the aforementioned Week 10 fourth quarter collapse at Tennessee.

The Play: Kansas City -7

Trends:

  • Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games
  • Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record
  • Tennessee is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine vs. AFC foes
  • Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games
  • Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last seven playoff road games
  • Kansas City is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games
  • Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite
  • Kansas City is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite
  • Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six vs. AFC rivals
  • Kansas City is 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games
  • Kansas City is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 playoff games
  • The over is 9-3 in Tennessee’s last 12 games
  • The under is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last five games as a road underdog
  • The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these clubs
  • Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings at Arrowhead Stadium
  • The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings between these AFC teams
  • Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings

NFC Championship Game

No. 2 Green Bay (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) at No. 1 San Francisco (14-3 SU, 10-6-1 ATS)

Moneyline: Green Bay (+280) | San Francisco: (-350)
Spread: GB: +7.5 (-110) | SF: -7.5 (-110)
Total: 46 – Over: (-110) | Under: 46 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: GB: 56% | SF: 46%
Game Info: January 19th, 2020 6:40 p.m. ET / 3:40 p.m. PT | FOX

The San Francisco 49ers advanced to the NFC title game by riding a dominant run game en route to a 27-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, covering the 7-point spread with relative ease. The 49ers defense looked healthy and at its peak form, holding the Vikings to only seven first downs the entire game! The Packers jumped out to a 21-3 lead and held on for 28-23 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. Rodgers and star wideout Davante Adams looked the most dynamic they have all season last week and they will need to perform at that same level if they have any chance at upsetting the 49ers.

The line opened with San Francisco as a 7-point home favorite and has since been bet up to -7.5. However, the sharps have bypassed the side and instead focused their attention on the total which opened up at 45. Since the sharp steam, the total now sits at 46 or 46.5 depending on the shop. When the two teams met back in Week 6, San Francisco dominated the Packers 37-8 en route to holding Rodgers to a dreadful 8.5 QBR. It appears they believe the 49ers will post 30-plus points once again and they are banking that Rodgers will find a way to put up more than single digits this time around. Currently the team totals stand at 19.5 (-120) for Green Bay and 27 (-115) for San Francisco, with both slightly juiced to the over.

It’s not hard to envision San Francisco scoring two-plus rushing touchdowns with the way their ground game is rolling right now and Jimmy Garoppolo throwing at least one or more in the air with a healthy George Kittle and an emerging Deebo Samuel on the outside. The Packers will definitely come in with a more aggressive game plan than the first time around. If Adams can continue his torrid play and Jones can rush for more than 38 yards this time around, he could very well find his way into the end zone if the Green Bay game plan can get the 49ers on their heels with the only quarterback with Super Bowl experience starting on Sunday. The sharps are definitely going against the grain betting on points involving the best defense left among the final four, but who am I to second guess with the streak they are on? Don’t forget the over is 7-3 (70%) the last 10 times these two NFC rivals have faced off. Now let’s light up the scoreboard!

The Play: OVER 46

Trends:

  • Green Bay is 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six playoff games as an underdog
  • Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six playoff games
  • Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five playoff road games
  • San Francisco is 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • San Francisco is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games overall
  • San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record
  • San Francisco is 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite
  • San Francisco is 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite
  • Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last seven meetings with San Francisco
  • The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these NFC rivals

NFL Season Record: 10-6-1

SUPER BOWL LIV ODDS:

Kansas City Chiefs +140

San Francisco 49ers +150

Green Bay Packers +700

Tennessee Titans +800

POSSIBLE SUPER BOWL LIV LOOK-AHEAD LINES:

Kansas City vs San Francisco

Line: KC -2.5

Tennessee vs San Francisco

Line: SF -3.5

Kansas City vs Green Bay

Line: KC -4.5

Tennessee vs Green Bay

Line: GB -2

More Gambling: Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Playoff Betting Preview
More Gambling: Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Betting Preview

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Chiefs: Andy Reid Confronts Ghosts of Postseasons Past in AFC Title Game
Packers: Lessons The Packers Can Learn From 2010 Jets
49ers: 49ers Will Not Be Overconfident