NBA Best Bets: Fade Trendy Underdogs

Author:
Publish date:

There's a nine-game NBA slate tonight, but like I mentioned last time, be careful when betting the NBA. There has been a ton of recent player movement, so rotations can be out of wack. We also have the All-Star break coming up, so many players are looking forward to that. 

Note: I would not touch the Hornets/Pistons game. I would also lay off the Spurs/Nuggets game. 

I've have mentioned this before and will say it again when it comes to sports betting, its always a good idea to fade trendy underdogs. That's the case for a couple games this evening. 

Toronto has been lights out recently and they are laying 9 points at home versus the Timberwolves. The Raptors have won 14 games in a row, yet the public is taking the points with Minnesota. The new-look Timberwolves just destroyed the Clippers and Toronto is coming off an ATS loss, so the public looks at this as a good time to back the Wolves. Before that win over the Clippers, Minnesota had lost 13 in a row. De'Angelo Russell isn't that good. I lean on the Raptors cruising.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Indiana Pacers: Pacers -6.5

Today's NBA betting theme is to fade the trendy underdog. Brooklyn is the underdog drawing the most bets in the NBA this evening. This game opened up with the Pacers as seven-point favorites—it almost looked too good to be true. Anytime a number looks too good to be true, it normally is. After further investigation, people are backing Brooklyn because the Pacers are currently on a five-game losing streak. 

When we bet against the Pacers last week I told you they are having a hard time incorporating Victor Oladipo into the lineup, but their main problem was not having T.J. Warren active. Well, Warren scored 22 in his return to the lineup in their loss on Saturday. Brooklyn and Indiana have played twice this season and Indiana has won both games, one by 10 and the other by 29.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks: Jazz -1

Utah comes into tonight's game winners of back-to-back games after losing five in a row. Utah also comes into this contest fully healthy. The Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic again this evening, but Kristaps Porzingis will suit up. 

I like the Jazz in this game because the Mavericks are a poor home team. Dallas is 10-17 ATS at home this season. The Kings, Bulls, Pistons and Suns all have better home ATS records than the Mavericks. 

Two Saturdays ago, the Jazz beat the Mavericks in Utah. Dallas is great on the road, yet Utah got a five-point victory. Doncic played for the Mavericks that night. The Jazz should lay the number with no problem. 

Season Record: 68-55

MORE FROM SI:

NBA Power Rankings: Assessing the League After a Wild Trade Deadline

Did the Warriors Gamble Wisely on Andrew Wiggins?

Early 2020 Heisman Odds: Fields, Lawrence Lead the Way

NFL 2020 MVP Odds: Any Long Shots Worth a Bet?