NFL 2020 MVP Odds: Any Long Shots Worth a Bet?

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While the parties in Kansas City are still going strong, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has already put out the odds for next season’s NFL MVP. It’s no shock that the last two players to be bestowed with the honor are the clear-cut favorites to win it once again. After his Super Bowl LIV MVP performance, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at odds of 4-1. Last season’s Most Valuable Player Lamar Jackson slides in a close second to repeat at odds of 6-1.

It appears that the SuperBook is unwilling to offer any quarterback at extreme odds, as even college quarterbacks, who are yet to be drafted (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa) are all less than 100-1. This comes on the heels of many sportsbooks being burned when Jackson won last year at odds of 100-1 or higher.

Some of the players on the list should honestly be listed at odds of 1,000-1 or higher, but as we know sportsbooks will never offer the ‘true’ odds on these kinds of future markets. For me, my money will be on Mahomes winning for the second time in three seasons.

However, some interesting long shots include Derrick Henry (60-1), Daniel Jones (100-1) and Nick Bosa (100-1). Henry, the 2019 rushing leader, who was nearly unstoppable at times last season could soar to even higher heights should free agency land him with a contending team possessing a strong passing attack that wouldn’t force him to face consistent eight-man fronts.

Jones, could take a tremendous leap in 2020 under new OC Jason Garrett as well as a healthy Saquon Barkley and a myriad of downfield weapons in Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Golden Tate.

As for Bosa, he is nowhere near his ceiling, and was still dominant earning AP Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. After just scratching the surface, it's not inconceivable to envision Bosa challenging Michael Strahan’s NFL regular season sack record (22.5). Should that scenario playout, bettors could be sitting on a winning lottery ticket. However, we have to go all the way back to 1986 for the last time a defensive player (Lawrence Taylor) took home the award.

The biggest long shot would be running back Le’Veon Bell at odds of 200-1. Before you easily dismiss the notion, the value here is two-fold. First, the Jets could move on from the ultra talented Bell where he could be land with a contender. Should that happen, Bell would be a steal at 200-1. On the flip side, should the Jets who have the 10th-most cap space at $56 million make massive moves along the offensive line, Bell would finally have a solid line once again to run behind. In addition, should the Jets land a weapon like Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb at the 11th-pick in the Draft it would soften up defenses even more creating more space for Bell. Once again it would be a huge uphill battle, as dating back to 2000 only two running backs have won the award when LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Shaun Alexander (2005) went back-to-back.

ODDS

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 4/1

Lamar Jackson (Ravens) 6/1

Russell Wilson (Seahawks) 10/1

Deshaun Watson (Texans) 12/1

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) 16/1

Carson Wentz (Eagles) 16/1

Drew Brees (Saints) 20/1

Aaron Rodgers (Packers) 20/1

Kyler Murray (Cardinals) 20/1

Matt Ryan (Falcons) 30/1

Christian McCaffrey (Panthers) 30/1

Tom Brady (Patriots) 30/1

Josh Allen (Bills) 40/1

Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) 40/1

Cam Newton (Panthers) 40/1

Baker Mayfield (Browns) 40/1

Jimmy Garoppolo (49erst) 40/1

Kirk Cousins (Vikings) 40/1

Matthew Stafford (Lions) 40/1

Derrick Henry (Titans) 60/1

Nick Chubb (Browns) 80/1

Dalvin Cook (Vikings) 80/1

Saquon Barkley (Giants) 80/1

Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) 80/1

Tua Tagovailoa* 80/1

Sam Darnold (Jets) 80/1

Leonard Fournette (Jaguars) 100/1

Alvin Kamara (Saints) 100/1

Aaron Jones (Packers) 100/1

Daniel Jones (Giants) 100/1

Phillip Rivers (FA) 100/1

Ryan Tannehill (Titans) 100/1

Jared Goff (Rams) 100/1

Derek Carr (Raiders) 100/1

Gardner Minshew (Jaguars) 100/1

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Dolphins) 100/1

Dwayne Haskins (Redskins) 100/1

Joe Burrow* 100/1

Drew Locke (Broncos) 100/1

Mitchell Trubisky (Bears) 100/1

Justin Herbert* 100/1

Josh Jacobs (Raiders) 100/1

Joe Mixon (Bengals) 100/1

Todd Gurley (Rams) 100/1

Sony Michel (Patriots) 100/1

TJ Watt (Steelers) 100/1

Aaron Donald (Rams) 100/1

Nick Bosa (49ers) 100/1

Myles Garrett (Browns) 100/1

Khalil Mack (Bears) 100/1

Minkah Fitzpatrick (Steelers) 100/1

Chase Young* 100/1

JJ Watt (Texans) 100/1

Michael Thomas (Saints) 200/1

Julio Jones (Falcons) 200/1

Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) 200/1

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) 200/1

DeAndre Hopkins (Texans) 200/1

Odell Beckham Jr (Browns) 200/1

Mark Engram (Ravens) 200/1

Raheem Mostert (49ers) 200/1

Melvin Gordon (Chargers) 200/1

Kentan Drake (Cardinals) 200/1

Marlon Mack (Colts) 200/1

James Conner (Steelers) 200/1

Le’Veon Bell (Jets) 200/1

Joey Bosa (Chargers) 200/1

Bobby Wagner (Seahawks) 200/1

Von Miller (Broncos) 200/1

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) 300/1

George Kittle (49ers) 300/1

Kenny Golladay (Lions) 300/1

Amari Cooper (Cowboys) 300/1

Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) 300/1

Zach Ertz (Eagles) 300/1

Davante Adams (Packers) 300/1

Tyler Lockett (Seahawks) 300/1

DeVante Parker (Dolphins) 300/1

Ceedee Lamb* 500/1

Jerry Jeudy* 500/1

Maxx Crosby (Raiders) 500/1

Damien Williams (Chiefs) 500/1