NFL Week 4 - Best Bets From the SI Gambling Team

The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at SI's MMQB weigh in on their top best bet against the spread for Week 4 in the NFL.
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Over the course of this year's 2020 NFL season, the SI Gambling team, along with a few of our friends from the SI MMQB NFL team are putting our collective heads together to pick our top game of the week against the spread. We'll keep track over the course of the year for bragging rights as well as transparency. Even after an old-fashioned beatdown in Week 3 going 4-8-1 ATS, our group still has picked 21-16-1 ATS!

Meanwhile, the heat check continued on Thursday night! Our SI Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo's information from "The PROPnosticator" for Thursday's game between the Broncos and Jets. SI Fantasy PRO members received Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy OVER 51.5 receiving yards at DraftKings Sportsbook

In 2020, the "Vegas Whispers" NFL betting plays have gone 22-18-0 ATS as well as 6-0 on Thursday Night Football..

Before checking out the team's selections and "best bets," here are the latest Week 4 NFL lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.

NFL Best Bets for Week 4

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.

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Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (+4) | TOTAL: 54.5

This feels like an overreaction on both sides.

The Lions surprised bettors with an outright victory on the road against the Cardinals last week, and conversely, the public is down on the Saints who continued to struggle on the defensive side of the ball against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

Based on the projected total, I don't see the Saints defense immediately turning things around, but with Michael Thomas expected to play, this completely changes the offensive dynamic for New Orleans. 

Editor's Note: Thomas is now OUT for Week 4 vs the Saints.

Drew Brees should carve up the Lions predominant man-to-man defensive coverage and is one of my favorite low-ownership plays this week on DraftKings as well. 

BEST BET: Saints -4 (has since moved to Saints -3)

Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders | TOTAL: 52.5

I absolutely love what I am seeing from Josh Allen and the Bills this year. The Vegas Whispers sharps in Vegas were all over the Bills in the offseason betting ‘over’ on their season win total, as well as backing them to win the AFC East. So far those bets look stellar. 

Without WR Henry Ruggs III (hamstring) the Patriots showed how when you take away TE Darren Waller the Raiders struggle on offense. Back Allen & the Bills defense to get the job done in Sin City and improve to 4-0 straight-up (SU), and cover against the number for the third time in four tries.

BEST BET: Bills -3

Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (+2.5 ) | TOTAL: 43

The Bears put Nick Foles in last week and pulled off the comeback vs Atlanta. Nick Foles does what he does best: step in and get a win. This week the Bears will start Foles, and that’s when things normally turn sideways for him. He is better as a relief pitcher and not a starter. I normally don’t bet on road favorites, but the Colts are a better team than the Bears.

BEST BET: Colts -2.5

Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (+2.5) | TOTAL: 43

The Bears are 3-0, but they could just as easily be 1-2 or 0-3 if D’Andre Swift doesn’t drop an easy touchdown pass or the Falcons could hold a lead. The Colts have played well since a Week 1 gaffe against the Jaguars, and I’m not sold on Nick Foles being the “savior” in Chicago. The Bears also have a terrible -19 point differential in the first three quarters of games thus far, and that trend could bite them against Indianapolis. I’ll take the Colts here to cover by at least a field goal.

BEST BET: Colts -2.5

Dr. Roto (@DrRoto)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Tampa Bay (-7.5) | TOTAL: 43

Both teams have a myriad of injuries that will change the complexion of the game. The Bucs are without WR Chris Godwin and both RB Leonard Fournette and WR Scotty Miller are questionable. This makes me wonder where the points are going to be coming from, especially with CB Casey Hayward covering WR Mike Evans. For the Chargers, DE Melvin Ingram and CB Chris Harris went onto the IR this week which is a big loss for their defense. I do expect Chargers QB Justin Herbert to play much better after last week’s disaster against Carolina. In a game where both teams are coming in beat up, I tend to take the points, especially when I am getting more than a TD.

BEST BET: Los Angeles Chargers +7.5

Bill Enright (@BillEnright)

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-4) | TOTAL: 53.5

Like the Jets, Giants, Falcons and Vikings, the Texans are off to an 0-3 start and a lot of the blame is being pointed at head coach Bill O’Brien. But when factoring in who Houston has opened up against, perhaps the critics are a bit too harsh. 

The Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers are arguably three of the best five teams in the NFL and those three squads all beat the Texans through the first three weeks. Now, instead of an NFL powerhouse, the Texans play another 0-3 team in the Minnesota Vikings. Don't forget, the Vikings that had to miss a few days of practice and preparation because the coronavirus outbreak from their Week 3 opponent (Titans) forced a facility shut down. Houston isn’t as bad as the pundits want you to believe. Sure, trading DeAndre Hopkins may have been an ill-advised move, but it's the right move to take them at home this week.

BEST BET: Texans -4

Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-7) | TOTAL: 46

Carson Wentz and the Eagles (0-3) head out on the road following a 23-23 OT tie at home against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals last week. After back-to-back wins in New York, Nick Mullens and the 49ers (2-1) return home for the first time since Week 1. While there are several injuries on both sides – Philadelphia is way worse off than San Francisco. The Eagles are down to fourth string wide receivers, TE Dallas Goedert is out, plus offensive tackles Jason Peters and Lane Johnson are questionable. Philadelphia is a total mess.

San Francisco is still without QB Jimmy Garoppolo but Mullens has filled in well. RB Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman are also out but Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson compliment each other in the backfield. TE George Kittle returns after missing the last two weeks with a knee injury. That opens up space for everyone on the 49ers offense against the Eagles leaky defense. The San Francisco defense will be locked in on TE Zach Ertz and RB Miles Sanders. Lay the touchdown point spread at DraftKings and back the 49ers at home.

BEST BET: 49ers -7.0

Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-4.5) | TOTAL: 54.5

I am personally never a fan of betting the under in football games because it’s just less fun to root for. But I am going with an under play this week because the total is moving in the wrong direction. 

Both Minnesota (54 plays per game, 31st) and Houston (52.7 plays per game, 32nd) are searching for their first win and have been playing slow this season. With both having good ground matchups here too, I think this game is going to be about limiting the number of plays, and consequently putting good value on the under.

BEST BET: MIN@HOU UNDER 54.5

Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (+2.5) | TOTAL: 43

"If there is an all out blitz, just run to the L." 

That is the pattern and play that Nick Foles told Anthony Miller to run for the game winning touchdown. The L referring to the L in the end zone for Atlanta. That is the type of player Nick Foles is and shows how smart, yet simple it can be when your QB is smarter than the defenders. Some guys just win and Nick Foles is a winner. The Eagles got rid of the wrong guy and the Bears will benefit greatly from his leadership and beat the Rivers led Colts in a close game. 

I'll gladly take Chicago at home with the points.

BEST BET: Bears +2.5

Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (+3) | TOTAL: 51.5

I’m going back to the well with the Cardinals. Kyler Murray surprisingly struggled against the Lions defense last week throwing three interceptions, but should have less of a problem against this Carolina secondary. The additional angle here is the Carolina offense without its star RB in McCaffrey. That casts doubt on whether they’ll be able to put up enough points to keep up with this potent Arizona offense. 

The one caveat to betting this game is DeAndre Hopkins, who didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday with an ankle injury, but I chalk this up to giving the veteran rest rather than his inability to go. Lay the three and take the win.

BEST BET: Cardinals -3

Find out more about Hopkins as well as the other top NFL injuries for Week 4 in Ben Heisler's Week 4 Injury Report.

Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)

Browns at Cowboys (-4.5) | TOTAL: 56

The Browns have built momentum with wins in their last two games after their 38-6 beatdown vs Baltimore in week 1. Keep in mind, this two-game winning streak consisted of some fairly tight games against Cincinnati and Washington, two teams that really rank arguably in the bottom five teams in the league. 

Dallas looks to rebound after their loss to Seattle that came down to the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Collectively, they've faced nothing but offensive powerhouses in the Rams, Falcons, and Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Browns rank 31st in offensive pass yards and have typically depended on the run game. They'll face a Cowboys defense that has already had 100 rush attempts against them, while only giving up just two rushing TDs. 

Meanwhile, the Cowboys offense continues to roll, and have already accumulated about 1,500 yards in total offense in just three games. Dak leads the league in completions, attempts, and passing yards. Expect the trio of Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb to be a force, coupled with Zeke and the run game. The Cowboys offensive trends will continue on this week. 

Speaking of trends, the Browns have lost the last four meetings against Dallas and actually haven't snagged a win against this team in Texas since 1994. The Browns are also 0-4 ATS in October, and 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.

BEST BET: Cowboys -4.5

Did you know that our resident UFC betting analyst Casey Olson has gone 140-54-4 in his UFC targeted bets this season? That's 72% ATS!

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Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (+2.5) | TOTAL: 43

If Philip Rivers hadn’t thrown two of the most boneheaded interceptions you’ll see this season in Week 1, and the Colts had won their season-opener in Jacksonville—a game in which they dominated every statistical category except turnovers—we’d be talking about Indy as one of the top five teams in football. So it’s hard to wrap your head around the fact that they’re giving less than a field goal against a Bears team that, while 3-0, has been fighting for its life against the likes of the Giants and the short-handed Lions. 

The Nick Foles factor throws a bit of a wild-card into this one (at his worst, he’s likely still better than Mitchell Trubisky), but Colts head coach Frank Reich knows Foles’ strength and weaknesses as well as anybody due to their time together in Philly. And considering Indy’s defensive dominance of their first three opponents, Foles and Co. could be overwhelmed in his first start.

BEST BET: Colts -2.5

Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (+3) | TOTAL: 51.5

I’m back on the Cardinals this week, maybe not just in spite of their loss last week but because of it. I think if this game took place a week ago, Arizona would be favored by a touchdown. But the line is naturally affected by the Cardinals’ first loss of the year against Detroit and the Panthers’ upset win over the Chargers. These things do happen over the course of the season, but I still think Arizona is much better team than Carolina. And even on the road, their true talent level should be more than 3 points better. 

The DeAndre Hopkins injury is clearly a concern, but he’s not as valuable to the Cardinals’ offense as Christian McCaffrey is to the Panthers’, and they’ll be without him (yes, I know they won without him last week). 

I guess what I’m saying is: "Don’t overreact to one week."

BEST BET: Cardinals -3

Want even more NFL Picks? Check out the Week 4 "Straight Up" staff picks from the entire Sports Illustrated MMQB team!

NAMEWEEK 4 PICKRECORD

Ben Heisler

Saints -4

2-2

Frankie Taddeo

Bills -3

4-0

Corey Parson

Colts -2.5

1-2

Michael Fabiano

Colts -2.5

2-2

Dr. Roto

Chargers +7.5

3-1

Bill Enright

Texans -4

1-3

Roy Larking

49ers -7

3-1

Steve Renner

MIN@HOU U54.5

2-2

Ian Ritchie

Bears +2.5

2-2

Scott Atkins

Cardinals -3

2-2

Casey Olson

Cowboys -4.5

2-1-1

Gary Gramling

Colts -2.5

2-2

Mitch Goldich

Cardinals -3

2-2

THIS WEEK'S RECORD (ATS): 7-6-0

COLLECTIVE RECORD (ATS): 28-22-1