Race of the Week: 2020 Ontario Derby

SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo handicaps this Saturday’s Ontario Derby from Woodbine, including the latest odds and his best bets.
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The SI Gambling Horse handicapping experts cashed in at the track in the Travers Stakes; helping our team crush the Exacta (8/1) and the Trifecta (36/1) after Tiz the Law, Caracaro & Max Player all hit the board!

In July, the team scored in the Blue Grass Stakes with the Exacta (12/1), Trifecta (60/1) and Superfecta (443/1). Now, the boys are back with some sharp opinions for this Saturday.

Two weeks ago, SI Fantasy PRO members scored when Dayoutoftheoffice ($7.80) crossed the line first in the Frizette Stakes with Vequist in second hitting the Exacta cold ($8.20).

Last week, those of us here at SI Gambling enjoyed another solid score in the Desi Arnaz Stakes when Astute ($12.20) crushed the field by seven lengths with Queengol filling out the exacta at odds of 31/1.

This weekend, among the 11 races on the card at Woodbine in Canada is the $125,000 Ontario Derby. The Ontario Derby has drawn a field of eight offering tremendous betting opportunities that are most likely to run through the barn of trainer Josie Carroll.

The morning-line favorite is Michael Maker’s Field Pass (2/1) who has won four of eight races in 2020. The son of Lemon Drop Kid will look to revert to his form earlier this year as he has disappointed failing to find the winner's circle in his last three races. It needs to be noted that he has still hit the board in all three races (show position) against better competition in higher graded stakes races.

Belichick (5/2), who is one of Carroll’s two entries, comes in as the second choice after preventing his stablemate Mighty Heart from winning the Canadian Triple Crown back on October 24 in the Breeders' Stakes. The two will face off once again with this time Mighty Heart (7/2) being behind him in the odds, slotting in as the third overall betting choice.

Who will cross the finish line first? Let’s take a look at the odds and break down the field.

Ontario Derby

Racetrack: Woodbine, Canada

Date: Saturday, November 21, 2020

Purse: $125,000

Distance: 1 ⅛ M, Dirt

Race: 8

Post Time: 4:58 pm EST / 1:58 pm PST

HORSES OF NOTE: Listed by post number, name, and odds

#2 Belichick (5/2) - The formula suggests we can not pass up the excellent value here on Belichick not being the favorite here. I am willing to back him on top here off that performance in the Breeders’ Stakes and the numbers state that he will get the better of his stablemate once again. Pick

#1 Field Pass (5/2) - This colt for Michael Maker has been facing tougher in Grade 2 stakes races and on paper his best effort gets the money on Saturday. Respect on all tickets. Threat

#8 Malibu Mambo (8/1) - His win last month was impressive coming off the extended layoff. This horse has been training great off the win and is a horse you need to include on all tickets. Top Longshot

#7 Dune of Pilat (20/1) - I am willing to toss the latest effort for this son of Medaglia D'Oro when he finished 9th at Keeneland back on October 22. Has been working bullets leading up to this in the mornings at Churchill Downs. At these kind of odds consider me seriously intrigued. Top Moonshot

Ontario Derby Formula Rankings

  • #2 Belichick
  • #1 Field Pass
  • #8 Malibu Mambo
  • #7 Dune of Pilat
  • #6 Mighty Heart
  • #3 Mnemba Island
  • #4 Lucky Curlin
  • #5 Deviant

Ontario Derby Betting Breakdown

This race is absolutely wide open and offers some great value. My top play is #2 Belichick (2/1) who I will use with #1 Field Pass (5/2) and #8 Malibu Mambo (8/1) . My top "moonshot" play is #7 Dune of Pilat (20/1) who is a horse who can really spice up the payouts.

Exacta P/W: 2-1-8-7-6

$1 wager: $20

TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 2 with 1,6,7,8 with 1,6,7.8

$1 wager: $16

Trifecta BOX: 2-1-8-7-6

.50- cent wager: $30

All wagers display ticket cost. All bettors should adjust wager amounts based upon bankroll

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Good Luck!