NCAA Basketball Monday Betting Preview: Bet on Kansas to Cover vs. Baylor

SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking focuses on key matchups from the ACC and Big 12 conferences on his Monday college basketball betting card.
Publish date:

Florida State at No. 16 Louisville

Atlantic Coast Conference rivals meet when Florida State visits No. 16 Louisville today. Tipoff for the Seminoles vs. Cardinals contest is slated for 7:00 p.m. ET at the KFC YUM! Center in Louisville, Ky. The Cardinals are slim favorites. 

Florida State has won three straight games in this series and this will be the only meeting between these teams this season. The Seminoles swept the Cardinals last year as they posted an 82-67 win at home and a 78-65 victory on the road in Louisville.

Louisville (9-2, 4-1 ACC) returns home following a 78-72 loss on Saturday to the Miami Hurricanes (6-6, 2-5 ACC) who are 11th overall in the ACC standings. The Cardinals were ice cold from beyond the arc as they connected on just three of 20 three-point shot attempts. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak that included a 73-71 win at home against No. 19 Virginia Tech. Louisville is averaging 71.1 points per game on offense and allowing 64.4 PPG on defense.

Florida State (7-2, 3-1 ACC) travels to Louisville following wins over North Carolina State (105-73) and North Carolina (82-75) at home. This is a key conference battle as the Seminoles are fourth overall in the ACC standings and trail Louisville by a half-game. This is the second road game of the season for Florida State who lost 77-67 to Clemson as visitors on December 29, 2020. FSU is averaging 79.1 points per game on offense and allowing 69.7 PPG on defense.

In addition to averaging more points per game on offense, Florida State also has an edge in assists (14.8 to 12.3) blocks (5.0 to 2.4) and steals (7.7 to 4.8) over Louisville. The Seminoles have the lone injury concern as second leading scorer Scottie Barnes is questionable with an ankle injury. This game shapes up as a back-and-fourth battle that features two evenly matched teams. Both squads average over 70 points per game and my play is OVER on the game total.

Pick: Game Total OVER 140.5 (-109) at DraftKings

Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook – Game Time 7:00 p.m. ET

Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook – Game Time 7:00 p.m. ET

Bet on College Basketball All Season at DraftKings

No. 6 Kansas at No. 2 Baylor 

Big 12 Conference heavyweights square off when No. 2 Baylor hosts No. 6 Kansas on Monday night. This highly anticipated prime-time showdown is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas. This is the first of two meetings this season and these teams split the two-game series last year. The visiting team posted victories in both games. The Bears won the first meeting 67-55 in Lawrence and the Jayhawks earned a split with a 64-61 victory in Waco.

After posting a 26-4 record last year, the best mark since Baylor basketball was established in 1906, Baylor is on a 12-0 roll so far this season. That includes a 5-0 record in conference games. The Bears own a half-game lead over Texas in the Big 12 standings. Baylor is averaging 87.3 points per game on offense and has allowed just 61.7 PPG on defense. An eight-point win on Saturday, 68-60 over No. 15 Texas Tech, is the Bears smallest margin of victory this season.

Following a season opening loss, 102-90 to No. 1 Gonzaga, Kansas (10-3) posted eight straight wins before getting crushed 84-59 by Texas on January 2. That was followed by wins over TCU (93-64) and Oklahoma (63-59) prior to a 75-70 loss to Oklahoma State last Tuesday. The Jayhawks were supposed to play Iowa State on Saturday but the game was cancelled due to COVID-19 issues. Kansas is averaging 76.4 points per game on offense and allowing 67.5 PPG on defense.

Led by guards Jared Butler (15.6 PPG) and MaCio Teague (15.3 PPG) Baylor features four starters who averaging at least 10.6 points per game. Guard Ochai Agbaji (14.7 PPG) and forward Jalen Wilson (13.8 PPG) lead the way for Kansas on offense and their starting five are averaging at least 9.2 points per game. The Jayhawks have had extra time to prepare and enough firepower on offense to keep this game close. Take the generous point spread and bet on Kansas.

Pick: Kansas Jayhawks +9 ATS (-110) at DraftKings

Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook – Game Time 9:00 p.m. ET

Betting Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook – Game Time 9:00 p.m. ET

2020-21 NCAA Basketball Betting Record: 8-4 ATS


College Basketball Tiers: Mid-Season Top 45 Teams