Over the course of 2020 and into 2021, our Senior Gambling Analyst and Vegas Insider- Frankie Taddeo - has shared his horse racing handicapping formula which has correctly predicted the following winners at SI Gambling:
- Travers Stakes - Exacta (8/1), Trifecta (36/1)
- Blue Grass Stakes - Exacta (12/1), Trifecta (60/1) and Superfecta (443/1)
- Frizette Stakes - Exacta Cold
- Desi Arnaz Stakes - Exacta (31/1)
- Ontario Derby - Trifecta (72/1)
- Tropical Turf Stakes - Trifecta (37/1) - 2021*
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On Saturday, SI Gambling’s “Race of the Week” takes us to action from Oaklawn Park. Among the 12 races on the card is the $1,000,000 Rebel Stakes, drawing a field of eight. The renowned race is a Kentucky Derby prep race with the winner receiving 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The second place finisher will receive 20 points, with third place netting 10 points and the fourth place finisher five points in the standings.
This race is highly competitive but the numbers from my formula are jumping off the page that this will be a two-horse race. The morning line favorite Caddo River (9/5) for Brad Cox is the clear speed of the race and he will be the one the field will have to catch in the Rebel Stakes. He has been visually impressive in his last two races winning by over 19 lengths combined.
The second choice is Bob Baffert’s Concert Tour (2/1) who enters off a victory in the San Vicente Stakes last month and will look to likely rate just off the pace tucked in behind Caddo River.
Keepmeinmind (4/1), a son of Laoban for trainer Robertino Diodoro, is the best closer in the race but the question becomes can he find a pace meltdown to close into?
Who will cross the finish line first? Let’s take a look at the odds and dive deeper.
2021 Rebel Stakes (G2) Preview
Racetrack: Oaklawn Park
Date: Saturday, March 13, 2021
Distance: 1 1/16 M, Dirt
Post Time: 6:16 pm EST / 3:16 pm PST
HORSES OF NOTE: Listed by post number, name, and odds:
#7 Concert Tour (9/5) - The formula lands just slightly on Bob Baffert’s entry who was impressive in his win in the San Vicente Stakes back on February 6. This son of Street Sense has posted some sharp morning workouts and he will look to make it a perfect 3 for 3 with Joel Rosario in the saddle. It's imperative that we highlight that Concert Tour (117) will be carrying five less pounds than Caddo River (122). Pick
#1 Caddo River (2/1) - Brad Cox’s entry will look to take the field gate-to-wire like he did in the Smarty Jones Stakes on January 22 - winning by over 10-lengths. This son of Hardspun, who has won a race over this course, has found the winner's circle in his last two races by a combined 20 lengths. He is the clear horse to beat, but his odds will likely be prohibitive. Win Contender
#6 Keepmeinmind (4/1) - This son of Laoban for trainer Robertino Diodoro has hit the board in all four career races (1-2-1). He is the top closer in the field, but he will need a pace duel to run into to win this one on Saturday. I will use him on the bottom in the exotics. Top Closer
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2021 Rebel Stakes Formula Rankings
- #7 Concert Tour
- #1 Caddo River
- #6 Keepmeinmind
- #4 Get Her Number
- #8 Super Stock
- #2 Big Lake
- #3 Hozier
- #5 Twilight Blue
2021 Rebel Stakes Breakdown
This looks like a two-horse race according to the formula and I will play it accordingly. I will use #7 Concert Tour (2/1) with #1 Caddo River (9/5) predominantly on top of # 6 Keepmeinmind (4/1), #8 Super Stock (6/1) and #4 Get Her Number (8/1).
TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 1,7 with 1,7 with 4,6,8
$1 wager: $6
SPREAD Trifecta Part-Wheel: 1,7 with 1,4,6,7 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8
$1 wager: $30
TOP Superfecta Part-Wheel: 1,7 with 1,7 with 4,6,8 with 2,3,4,6,8
$1 wager: $16
All wagers display ticket cost. All bettors should adjust wager amounts based upon bankroll.