Can Patrick Mahomes Surpass 4,499 Yards This 2020 Season?

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Bill Enright: In 2018, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 5,000 yards. In 2019 he threw for 4,000. The sportsbooks are thinking he's going to meet somewhere in the middle for 2020. Let's bring on Joshua Brisco from Arrowhead report and Frank Taddeo, our gambling insider here at SI and talk about Patrick Mahomes passing yards and is over/under, which is set at 4,499, dead smack in the middle from his 2018-2019 average. Frank, I'll start with you: the sportsbooks didn't do a whole lot of math when it came to this one, did they?

patrick-mahomes

Frank Taddeo: No, it's really easy to land on how they came up with this number. Bill, you nailed it right on the head. But I mean, for me, my model right now has him landing at 4784 yards, which is over this projection. I think he easily surpasses this number once again in 2020. I mean, obviously, we know last year he was injured, but in that first year, he obviously threw for a slightly over 5000 yards. I don't think he gets back to that number quite great, really. I mean, that's an unrealistic expectation, but I do think he goes over 4,500. With all the weapons and now Clyde Edwards Helair in the backfield. It's going to be harder for the defensive box fronts to actually just crowd the line of scrimmage. So now they can actually probably come up. They can't play as much back and that's going to open up more opportunities downfield. With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, this a number that I say go over and go over with ease. This will be a bet that I will be making and a sizable bet on that, I might say, Bill.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs, LSU Tigers

Bill Enright: Joshua, when it comes to the chiefs playmakers, they certainly didn't lose anyone this offseason. As Frank mentioned, they have plenty of speed on this roster. What makes you say that Mahomes would finish under 4,500 yards this year?

Joshua Brisco: If his kneecap ends up on the side of his leg again, that's the only answer. I mean, even him plus Matt Moore together cleared that number last year. There are over 4,500 together in that two and a half games or so that Mahomes missed. So I think he goes over as well. You might look at the draft pick Clyde Edwards Helair and think, are they going to try to give the ball to him a little bit more on the ground? I don't think so, and frankly, I hope that they don't. They're way more efficient throwing the ball and Edwards Helair steps in perfectly as a pass-catching running back in this offense. Him and Damien Williams. Doesn't matter how much they share that load, they're going to be catching a lot of passes. I think the point about the box is having to be a little more respectful of the running game also is absolutely fair here. I think Mahomes goes over by a couple hundred yards.

Bill Enright: Let’s hope everyone's kneecaps stay in place. That would be a good start and good to hear that everyone's taking the over on Patrick Mahomes passing yards. I love it. Joshua Frank, thank you for the analysis. Plenty more gambling insider information. You can find it all at SI.com/gambling. 

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