2025 Genesis Invitational Betting Models, Picks: Long, Difficult Test at Torrey Pines

Players who thrive on long courses in difficult conditions should rise to the top of the leaderboard this week at Torrey Pines’s famed South Course.

The Genesis Invitational will take place at Torrey Pines for the 2025 version of the event. / Orlando Ramirez / Stringer/Getty Images

The PGA Tour’s West Coast swing makes its final stop to play the Genesis Invitational. The tournament marks the third $20 million signature event of the season. The Genesis is typically played at Riviera Country Club, but due to the devastating wildfires in California, it’s been moved to Torrey Pines. This week, only the South course will be played unlike the recent Farmers Insurance Open, which used both the North and South courses. 

Torrey Pines Golf Club’s South Course is a par-72 measuring 7,802 yards.

The Genesis Invitational field will consist of 72 players with the top 50 and ties making it to the weekend, as well as anyone within 10 shots of the lead. Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Min Woo Lee and Gary Woodland have received sponsor’s exemptions into the event. 

Tiger Woods was slated to make his 2025 debut this week in what would have been his first start since last year’s British Open but has since withdrawn.

Past Winners at The Genesis Invitational

• 2024: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
• 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
• 2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19)
• 2021: Max Homa (-12)
• 2020: Adam Scott (-11)
• 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
• 2018: Bubba Watson (-12)
• 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
• 2016: Bubba Watson (-15)
• 2015: James Hahn (-6)

Strokes-gained approach

Hitting greens will be important due to the difficulty of the around the green areas at Torrey Pines. Strokes-gained approach has been the most indicative statistic of top-10 finishers at the course historically.

Strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.24)
2. Lucas Glover (+1.03)
3. Tom Hoge (+1.00)
4. Nick Taylor (+0.90)
5. J.J. Spaun (+0.85)

Strokes-gained off the tee on “difficult” driving courses

Torrey Pines is a long course, and distance will absolutely be a major factor. Elite drivers of the golf ball tend to play well at the Farmers. 

Strokes-gained off the tee on “difficult” driving courses over past 36 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+0.94)
2. Cameron Young (+0.69)
3. Viktor Hovland (+0.68)
4. Scottie Scheffler (+0.66) 
5. Jordan Spieth (+0.63) 

Strokes-gained putting on Poa: 

We typically see a lot of golfers play well in this area year after year. One determining factor in the consistent results is whether or not golfers prefer the Poa out west to other surfaces.

Great Poa putters typically play very well in California.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa) in past 24 rounds:

1. Matthieu Pavon (+0.83)
2. Max Homa (+0.80)
3. Denny McCarthy (+0.70)
4. Akshay Bhatia (+0.65) 
5. Sungjae Im (+0.64)

Course history

This statistic will highlight players who have excelled at Torrey Pines South over their career.

Course history over past 50 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+2.48)
2. Adam Scott (+2.39) 
3. Russell Henley (+2.27)
4. Collin Morikawa (+2.16)
5. Sam Stevens (+1.95)

Strokes-gained on “very difficult” courses

Torrey Pines South can play brutally difficult. Players who are accustomed to playing well on tough courses should be well equipped for the challenge. 

Strokes-gained on “very difficult” courses past 50 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+2.53)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.07)
3. Will Zalatoris (+1.85)
4. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.72) 
5. Collin Morikawa (+1.69)

Strokes-gained on “very long” courses

Torrey Pines South is an extremely long golf course. This statistic will show which players are capable of tackling a course of this length. 

Strokes-gained on “very long” courses over past 36 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+2.88)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.31)
3. Tommy Fleetwood (+2.09)
4. Thomas Detry (+1.91) 
5. Viktor Hovland (+1.84)

Strokes-gained putting when doing so is “very difficult”

Torrey Pines South is a very tough golf course to make putts on. There are a high number of three putts on the tricky greens, and players with experience putting well when the Poa gets bumpy in the afternoon will fare much better.

Strokes-gained putting when doing so is “very difficult” over past 36 rounds:

1. Denny McCarthy (+0.87)
2. Sungjae Im (+0.67)
3. Adam Scott (+0.52)
4. Lee Hodges (+0.51) 
5. Christian Bezuidenhout (+0.51)

Comparable courses rankings

New this year, I am going to generate a “mini model” of the best players at each of the comparable courses. For the Genesis Invitational, I am using Muirfield Village, Riviera, Augusta National, Quail Hollow, Oak Hill, Bethpage (Black), Olympia Fields, TPC Harding Park and Bay Hill.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Ludvig Aberg
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Max Homa
6. Denny McCarthy
7. Sungjae Im
8. Russell Henley
9. Matt Fitzpatrick
10. Will Zalatoris

Statistical model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are a combination of strokes-gained approach (24%), strokes-gained off the tee when difficult (12%), course history (12%), strokes-gained very difficult (12%), Strokes-gained putting when doing so is very difficult (8%), strokes-gained very long (12%), comparable course rankings (10%) and strokes-gained putting Poa (8%).

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Viktor Hovland
3. Collin Morikawa
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Adam Scott
7. Russell Henley
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. Shane Lowry
10. Sungjae Im

Last week's picks results for the WM Phoenix Open:

Justin Thomas (25-1): T6
Sam Burns (30-1): T49
Sahith Theegala (40-1): T57
Byeong Hun An (50-1): 73rd
Kurt Kitayama (60-1) T49
Rickie Fowler (90-1): WD
Beau Hossler (90-1): T32

2025 Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Collin Morikawa +1600 (DraftKings)

The Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines will play quite differently than the Farmers Insurance Open, and I believe that fares well for Collin Morikawa. With all four rounds being played on the South Course, ball striking will be even more important. Last time there were four rounds played at the South Course was the 2021 U.S. Open, where Morikawa finished T4. 

Despite not winning last season, Morikawa has been one of the most consistent players in the world over the past 15 months. The Cal product had seven top-5 finishes in 2024 and already has one to his name in the early stages of 2025. 

Morikawa is perfectly suited to contend at Torrey Pines. He ranks fifth in strokes-gained total on the course, fifth in strokes-gained total in very difficult conditions and seventh in strokes-gained total on very long courses. 

Through his first two starts in 2025, Morikawa looks to be back to the player who consistently gained significant strokes ball striking on the field. A win at the Genesis Invitational would once again cement the two-time major champion as one of the best players in the world. 

Keegan Bradley +5500 (DraftKings)

It’s been a strong start to 2025 for Keegan Bradley. The U.S. Ryder Cup captain has perhaps been rejuvenated by his appointment to the prestigious position and has finished in the top 15 in three of his first four starts of the year. 

Bradley finished T15 at last month’s Farmers Insurance Open and played Torrey Pines South under par over the weekend (70-73) in extremely difficult conditions. In the field, Keegan ranks 15th in strokes-gained off the tee on difficult driving courses, eighth in strokes-gained total at Torrey Pines South and 13th in strokes-gained total in difficult conditions. 

Bradley should relish the difficult test at Torrey Pines this week. He finished in the top-5 of the Farmers Insurance Open in 2017 (T4), 2018 (5th) and 2023 (2nd). In each of those years, the winning scores were -10, -13 and -13, and that was with the easier North Course being used. 

A win this week would be an enormous step towards the 38-year-old establishing himself as a potential player and captain at Bethpage Black. 

Viktor Hovland +6500 (DraftKings)

Coming into the week, there are more questions than answers about Viktor Hovland’s game. The Norwegian has stated that he “sucked” this season but then went on to finish T22 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am just a few days after the comment. With swing changes, coach changes and inconsistent results, it’s hard to know exactly what to expect from the 27-year-old. 

Although there is a great deal of uncertainty, Hovland hit the ball extremely well at Pebble Beach. He gained strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach for the week and had his best approach round on Sunday (+2.22). 

Hovland finished T2 at the Farmers in 2021 and has shown over the past few years that he’s the type of player who can rise to the challenge in difficult conditions. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks third off the tee on difficult driving courses, fifth on very long courses and eighth on very difficult courses.

This is a boom-or-bust bet, but if there weren’t as many questions surrounding Hovland, his betting price would be cut in half. I’m happy to take a chance of his talent and hope one of the best players in the world can put four rounds together at Torrey Pines. 

Adam Scott +9000 (FanDuel)

Adam Scott is a player who should benefit from the tough conditions we are expecting at Torrey Pines this week. The Australian has won seven times since 2013, and those winning scores have been -9 (The Masters), -11 (The Barclays), -9 (Colonial), -9 (Honda Classic), -12 (WGC Cadillac), -13 (Australian PGA Championship) and -11 (Genesis Invitational). At this stage of his career, Scott is more likely to win an event where the winning score stays as close to -10 as possible. 

The 44-year-old is playing some great golf to start 2025. He finished T15 at the Sentry and T22 at Pebble Beach, but his ball striking has been more impressive than his finishes. At Pebble, he ranked 13th in strokes-gained off the tee and 18th in strokes-gained ball striking for the week. 

In the field, Scott ranks fourth in strokes-gained total at Torrey Pines South. He finished second at the Farmers Insurance Open in 2019 and T10 in 2021. In his last three trips to the course, the former Masters champion has gained at least 3.9 strokes putting on the field. 

At this big of a price, it’s worth seeing if Scott has another big victory left in the tank in the latter stages of his career. 

Akshay Bhatia +9000 (DraftKings)

I’m not entirely sure if Akshay Bhatia is ready to beat such a strong field in such a prestigious event, but I do believe he has the talent to do so. Back in 2022, I tipped Joaquin Niemann (70-1) to beat an elite field at the Genesis Invitational despite his youth and inexperience, and this feels eerily similar to that week. 

This week should be windy, and Akshay Bhatia is a player who has played great golf in windy conditions. He won the Bahamas Great Exuma Classic in the wind as well at the Valero Texas Open. 

Bhatia has the recipe needed this week of an accurate driver of the ball as well as a great putter on the West Coast. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks 10th in strokes-gained off the tee on difficult driving courses and 9th in strokes-gained putting on Poa. 

If Bhatia can triumph over a strong field at one of the biggest events of the season, the 23-year-old can jumpstart his ascension into one of the best players under 25 on the PGA Tour. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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