2025 PGA Championship Betting Models, Picks: Driving to Success at Quail Hollow

Players who are long and straight off the tee will have a significant advantage in the season’s second major.

Bryson DeChambeau is poised to make a run at the season's second major championship. / Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters via Imagn Images

The second major of the 2025 season is upon us as the world’s best will tee it up this week at Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, N.C., to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Quail Hollow host a major championship, Justin Thomas emerged victorious at the 2017 PGA Championship. The course also hosted the 2022 Presidents Cup, where the U.S. team defeated the International team 17 ½–12 ½, with Jordan Spieth (5-0-0) and Max Homa (4-0-0) leading the charge. 

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,626 yards that features bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland-style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which comprises Nos. 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field this week will consist of 156 players and will include 29 major champions, 14 PGA champions, three World Golf Hall of Famers and three Ryder Cup captains. There are also 15 LIV players at Quail Hollow this week. Traditionally, the PGA of America invites the top 100 in the Official World Golf Ranking who aren’t already in the field. Some notable players who were not otherwise exempt include Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, David Puig, Tom McKibbin and Rickie Fowler.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

• 2024: Xander Schauffele (-21) Valhalla
• 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
• 2022: Justin Thomas  (-5) Southern Hills
• 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
• 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13)TPC Harding Park
• 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
• 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
• 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14)  Baltusrol
• 2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
• 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

• 2024: Rory McIlroy (-17)
• 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
• 2022: Max Homa (-8)
• 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
• 2019: Max Homa (-15)
• 2018: Jason Day (-12)
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
• 2016: James Hahn (-9)
• 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Quail Hollow to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category.

Strokes-gained approach

Approach play will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult. 

Strokes-gained approach per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Sepp Straka (+1.53)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.25)
3. Collin Morikawa (+1.08)
4. Sami Valimaki (+1.01)
5. Tom Hoge (+0.97)

Strokes-gained off the tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree-lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes-gained off the tee per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+1.29)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+0.80)
3. Ludvig Åberg (+0.76)
4. Niklas Norgaard (+0.76)
5. Garrick Higgo (+0.75)

Strokes-gained total on very long and very difficult courses

Quail Hollow will play extremely long and extremely difficult. Historically, 13 of the 18 holes at the course have a scoring average of over par. This statistic will incorporate players equipped to survive the tough test. 

Strokes-gained total on very long and very difficult courses over past 36 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+3.1)
2. Jon Rahm (+2.5)
3. Ludvig Åberg (+2.1)
4. Tommy Fleetwood (+2.0)
5. Xander Schauffele (+1.9)

Proximity to the hole from 200+ yards

The length of Quail Hollow is a major factor this week and will result in some very long approach shots. Additionally, three of the four par-3s are over 200 yards.

Proximity 200+ over past 36 rounds:

1. Joaquin Niemann (47’5”)
2. Martin Kaymer (47’5”)
3. Keita Nakajima (47’8”)
4. Brooks Koepka (48’2”)
5. Rory McIlroy (48’8”)

Strokes-gained putting on Poa trivialis

Strokes-gained putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on similar putting surfaces.

Strokes-gained putting on Poa trivialis over past 36 rounds:

1. Cameron Smith (+1.46)
2. Patrick Reed (+1.08)
3. Denny McCarthy (+0.99)
4. Brooks Koepka (+0.84)
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+0.79)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow. 

Strokes-gained per round at Quail Hollow over past 36 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+2.75)
2. Jason Day (+1.95)
3. Justin Thomas (+1.77)
4. Bryson DeChambeau (+1.76)
5. Patrick Reed (+1.62)

Bogey avoidance

When trying to win a major championship at a difficult golf course, it’s crucial to limit mistakes. Golfers who do the best job of avoiding bogeys will put themselves in a position to win the tournament.

Bogey avoidance over past 36 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (9.6%)
2. Michael Kim (11.1%)
3. Lee Hodges (11.9%)
4. Collin Morikawa (12.5%)
5. Russell Henley (12.7%)

Comparable course rankings

This season, I am going to generate a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For Quail Hollow, I am using Torrey Pines (South), Bay Hill, Memorial Park, Muirfield Village, Riviera, Winged Foot, Bethpage (Black), Southern Hills, East Lake and CC of Jackson.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Jon Rahm
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Dustin Johnson
7. Tony Finau
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Justin Thomas

2025 PGA Championship model rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed: strokes-gained approach (23%), strokes-gained off the tee (24%), Proximity to the hole from 200+ yards (10%), bogey avoidance (8%), strokes-gained putting on Poa trivialis (10%), course history (8%), strokes-gained total on very long and very difficult courses (10%) and comparable course rankings (8%). 

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Tyrrell Hatton
6. Joaquin Niemann
7. Corey Conners
8. Taylor Pendrith
9. Daniel Berger
10. Bryson DeChambeau
11. Jordan Spieth
12. Russell Henley
13. Jon Rahm
14. Tommy Fleetwood
15. Brooks Koepka
16. Viktor Hovland
17. Xander Schauffele
18. Kevin Yu
19. Aaron Rai
20. Ludvig Åberg

Last week's picks results for the Truist Championship

Ludvig Aberg (18-1): T60
Patrick Cantlay (22-1): T4
Hideki Matsuyama (35-1): T17

2025 PGA Championship picks

Bryson DeChambeau +1400  (DraftKings)

Since 2024 began, Xander Schauffele is the only golfer to outgain Bryson DeChambeau in strokes against the field in major championships. Starting with the 2024 Masters, the 31-year-old has finished T6 at the Masters, T2 at the PGA Championship, first at the U.S. Open and T5 at the 2025 Masters.

Quail Hollow is a fantastic course for DeChambeau to make a run at his third major title. He played the course at the Wells Fargo and finished 4th in 2018 and T9 in 2021. He ranks first in strokes-gained putting at Quail Hollow over his past 12 rounds there. 

Driving the ball long and straight will provide an enormous advantage for players this week and DeChambeau has arguably solidified himself as the player who does so most reliably. This season, he’s gained on the field in both driving distance and driving accuracy in every start he’s made. The strokes-gained off the tee numbers for the two-time U.S. Open champion have been nothing short of staggering. He’s also gained strokes off the tee in 10 consecutive major championships. 

When DeChambeau found himself in the final pair alongside Rory McIlroy on Sunday at the Masters, he did so without his irons cooperating all week. In the two starts he’s made since, he finished T2 at LIV Mexico City and won LIV South Korea. At Jack Nicklaus Golf Club, DeChambeau’s irons were spectacular. He gained 3.71 strokes on approach in three rounds, which was plenty alongside his stellar off the tee play to give him the victory. If he was able to get his distance control figured out in the win, his ball striking ability should give him an incredibly high floor at Quail Hollow. 

Around-the-green play will also be a factor this week and DeChambeau has one of the most underrated short games in the world. He’s gained strokes on the field around the green in seven of eight starts this season and in six of his past seven major championship starts. 

With his game clearly peaking at the right time, DeChambeau is poised to make a serious run at his first Wanamaker Trophy. 

Joaquin Niemann +3500 (DraftKings)

Joaquin Niemann has been criticized over the past few years for his lack of production in major championships, and perhaps rightfully so. He has been one of the best and most consistent performers on LIV, but is still waiting for his first top-10 finish in a major. This week, I believe this narrative will shift and he will contend at Quail Hollow and display his enormous talent on a major stage.

Quail Hollow is a course that favors players who can hit it long and straight off the tee, and Niemann can do just that. The Chilean has a lower ball flight than many of the other big hitters in the field and that has been a detriment in the past on firm and fast greens. With rain expected to hit Quail Hollow early in the week, his ball flight shouldn’t have quite as much of an impact as it did at Augusta National. 

One of the most important factors this week will be long iron play and proximity from 200+ yards. In his past 36 rounds, Niemann ranks first in the field in that category and is one of the best long-iron players in the world. 

Niemann was able to secure three victories in the first half of the LIV season (LIV Adelaide, Singapore, Mexico City). Critics will point to smaller fields and 54 holes to diminish those accomplishments, but they don’t change the fact that he has to beat Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Brooks Koepka and more to earn his victories. 

The PGA Championship has historically been the major that favors younger players who have yet to break through in majors. At just 26 years old, Niemann still has plenty of time to get it figured out in majors and he undoubtedly has the talent to do so. It’s only a matter of time. 

Viktor Hovland +4000 (DraftKings)

Viktor Hovland has been extremely unpredictable over the last few years, but at the Valspar Championship he showed he’s still one of the best players in the world when he is playing well. The Norwegian has been extremely critical of himself but acknowledged that his swing is getting closer to where he wants it to be. 

Hovland has had back-to-back strong showings at the PGA Championship. He finished T2 in 2023 and third in 2024. Prior to the 2024 Masters, Hovland had finished in the top 20 in five consecutive majors. His major form fell off a bit during a swing change, but if his win this year is an indication of a return, I expect him to be a perennial major contender once again. At the Masters, he finished T21 and showed some flashes of form over the week. 

Quail Hollow should suit Hovland nicely. He finished T3 there on debut at the Wells Fargo Championship and T24 in his most recent start. The 27-year-old is one of the best iron players on the planet and should be able to score with his long irons this week. 

Despite the roller coaster few seasons for Hovland, I still believe in his long-term potential as one of the most talented players in the world. At his best, he’s one of the few players who can challenge McIlroy and Scheffler for a Wanamaker Trophy. 

Tyrrell Hatton +4500 (BetMGM)

Tyrrell Hatton has yet to truly contend deep into a major but has shown signs in the last few seasons that he’s ready to elevate his game on the biggest stage. The Englishman finished T14 at last month’s Masters and was heavily involved for the first two days of the tournament. 

Hatton has already demonstrated that he can perform well at Quail Hollow as he finished T3 in the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. He’s not the longest player in the field, but his off the tee game may be a bit underrated. He hits it far enough and is extremely accurate with the driver. At the Masters, he gained 5.32 strokes off the tee. 

Hatton had a slow start on LIV this year but has started to round into form over his past few starts. He finished T5 at LIV Mexico City and T13 at LIV South Korea where he gained 3.33 strokes on approach in his three rounds of play. 

Hatton has won big events in the past and has beaten players such as Rory McIlroy to do so. He has a terrific short game and is a competitor who won’t back down if he gets an opportunity to win a major in the late stages at Quail Hollow. 

Jason Day +8000 (BetMGM)

Last week, Jason Day was forced to sit out the Truist Championship with a neck injury. There’s obviously a concern going forward for Day, but I still believe he’s worth the risk at long odds.

If Day is healthy and ready to go this week, he can contend with the best in the world at Quail Hollow. The Australian has gotten in the mix at three big events this season (API, Players, Masters) and is clearly going after the most important trophies at this stage of his career. 

Day’s history at Quail Hollow is excellent. He won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2018 and has three additional top 10 finishes at the course, including a T4 in his most recent trip there in 2024. 

After reconnecting with his longtime coach, Colin Swatton, Day’s putter has returned to form. He’s gained strokes putting in four consecutive events and has plenty of major championship experience to fall back on if he gets in the mix over the weekend at Quail Hollow. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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