2025 U.S. Open Betting Models, Picks: Elite Profiles Only at Oakmont

Our expert can’t ignore Scottie Scheffler but also has a pick down the odds board for the notoriously difficult course.

Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite at this U.S. Open, but for a reason. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Following two terrific major championships to begin the year, we’ve now arrived at the 2025 U.S. Open with a return to Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania. This will be the 10th time in the national open’s history that we’ve returned to Oakmont, but the first time since Dustin Johnson’s win in 2016. That return should excite golf fans as we’re back at arguably the best and certainly one of the most difficult U.S. Open venues in the rota. 

Oakmont Country Club is a par-70 for the U.S. Open designed by Henry Fownes and opened in 1903. It has since been renovated by Tom Fazio in 2015 before undergoing a restoration from Gil Hanse in 2023-24. For the major championship, the course will stretch to 7,431 yards and, while the 6-inch rough might be its most demanding feature for players, it also features some comically eye-popping holes. The 293-yard par-3 8th hole has already drawn plenty of criticism from players like Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland while the two par-5s (No. 4 and 12) measure 612 and 663 yards on the scorecard, respectively.

Not only is Oakmont considered annually one of the top-10 best courses in the United States, it’s also one of the toughest. Though the fairways aren’t all too narrow, the rough is exceptionally penal. The deep bunkers, including the famed “church pew” bunkers between the par-4 3rd hole and par-5 4th hole, and fast greens all set up for a brilliant test of major championship golf. It also puts the entire game to the test.

With 156 players in the field, both from U.S. Open qualifying and other exemptions, the field is humongous and stacked. And it certainly feels like, after winning three of his last four starts—including the PGA Championship—everyone is chasing Scottie Scheffler.

Key stats for Oakmont Country Club

Strokes-gained total on “very difficult” courses in the last year

The test that Oakmont presents can’t be understated. It’s a thorough examination throughout the bag amid harsh conditions. So the first thing you have to look at is the players who have performed best over the past 12 months when the conditions are considered ‘very difficult."

1. Scottie Scheffler (2.64)
2. Bryson DeChambeau (2.61)
3. Jon Rahm (2.25)
4. Davis Riley (2.13)
5. Russell Henley (2.01)

Strokes-gained off the tee with high rough penalty in last 24 rounds

As mentioned, driving the ball well with both length and accuracy is pivotal for success at Oakmont. Just look back at Dustin Johnson in 2016 and how he dissected the course off the tee for the perfect example. Taking into account rounds when finding rough can severely penalize players, these have been the best drivers in strokes-gained off the tee.

1. Bryson DeChambeau (0.87)
2. Jordan Spieth (0.84)
3. Ludvig Åberg (0.81)
4. Scottie Scheffler (0.79)
5. Corey Conners (0.63)

Bogey avoidance in the last 36 rounds

There’s going to be carnage at Oakmont with the penal rough and bunkers, the lightning-fast greens and the USGA setting up a demanding test almost annually. Some have described the U.S. Open as a test of survival, so that means finding players who have been adept at avoiding the big numbers is a crucial aspect for our model.

1. Scottie Scheffler (9.9%)
2. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (11.7%)
3. Chris Gotterup (12.3%)
4. Shane Lowry (13.0%)
5. Rory McIlroy (13.6%)

Strokes-gained total in major championships over the last 5 years

One of the best indicators of future success in major championships is often past success in majors, especially with the distinct lack of proverbial sleeper winners in these events over the years. So we’re looking back at the last five years and who has averaged the most strokes-gained total l in majors. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (2.56)
2. Xander Schauffele (2.29)
3. Rory McIlroy (2.14)
4. Jon Rahm (2.01)
5. Collin Morikawa (1.97)

Strokes-gained ball striking in last 36 rounds in difficult off-the-tee situations

While short game will play some part, the unpredictability of the long rough around green complexes should somewhat level the playing field. That, ultimately, could leave this as largely a test of ball-striking. Emphasizing the difficulty to be great off the tee in these conditions gives us an even better idea of who can thrive in such conditions.

1. Scottie Scheffler (2.22)
2. Bryson DeChambeau (1.92)
3. Matthew Jordan (1.77)
4. Collin Morikawa (1.47)
5. Jon Rahm (1.44)

U.S. Open model rankings for Oakmont

We’re going with a deep model to try and identify the best fits for Oakmont with strokes-gained majors in the last five years (15%), strokes-gained on “very difficult” courses in the last year (15%), strokes-gained off the tee on courses where it’s difficult to gain and with a high missed fairway penalty (10%), strokes-gained approach in the last 24 rounds with a high rough penalty (10%), bogey avoidance in the last 36 rounds (10%) and strokes-gained ball striking in the last 36 rounds in difficult to gain off-the-tee situations (10%), followed by a smaller sprinkle of past performance at Oakmont, Winged Foot and Oak Hill, strokes-gained around the green in long rough over the last 36 rounds and proximity from 100-150 yards in the last 24 rounds. Here’s how the top 10 of that model breaks down.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Corey Conners
6. Russell Henley
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Keegan Bradley
9. Shane Lowry
10. Taylor Pendrith

2025 U.S. Open picks

Scottie Scheffler (+280, FanDuel)

There are few things I want to do less than back Scottie Scheffler at this price, but it’s just too good of a fit to pass up. The three wins in four starts that include a dominant PGA Championship victory are where to start (his lone non-victory was a T4 at the Charles Schwab), but he’s tailor-made to take down Oakmont. 

Scheffler comes out first in four of the five biggest key metrics for this week at the U.S. Open and is fourth in the other. In what is ultimately a big-dogs-only ball-striking test, there isn’t anyone right now who is in the same stratosphere as the No. 1-ranked player in the world. 

What stands out to me more than that is Scheffler and caddie Ted Scott’s approach. Their willingness to take the big number out of play and ability to navigate treacherous conditions is second to none, which is why his performance in majors and in top tournaments overall has been so stellar. The price is gross, but you’d be foolish to not have some investment in Scottie. 

Jon Rahm (+1200, DraftKings)

While Bryson DeChambeau is deservedly going to get a ton of attention as LIV’s best chance (and I do like his fit quite a bit as well, especially after his navigation of Pinehurst and his overpowering of Winged Foot), I’m actually pivoting to go with Jon Rahm. Though he ranks only 18th in the model, there are enough positive signs along with a phenomenal U.S. Open history to fall back on. 

After a disappointing 2024 in majors, Rahm has rebounded to finish T14 at the Masters and T8 at the PGA Championship. He’s also continued to rack up top 10s on LIV, most notably gaining at least 2.8 strokes off the tee and 2.4 strokes on approach in each of the last two events (and in his last three starts including the PGA). Furthermore, Winged Foot in 2020 is the only time in the last five starts at the U.S. Open (he didn’t play in 2024) that he didn’t finish T12 or better, including his win in 2021. 

With the return of his ball-striking prowess combined with his always-beautiful short game, Rahm is built for the survival test of a US Open and is now coming in with the form that suggests he might be able to hoist the trophy once again as the only Spanish man to ever win this tournament. 

Corey Conners (+6000, DraftKings)

Now, we venture a bit further down the odds board for Corey Conners. The finishes of late have been solid but not spectacular. He hasn’t finished worse than T27 in his last four starts (and has only done so once since the Genesis in mid-February), but his best showing was T11 at the Truist Championship. However, he was T19 at the PGA and T8 at The Masters. 

More importantly, though, Conners has leveled up as a major player outside of Augusta in the last few years. He’s coming off a T9 at Pinehurst last year, which was his first made cut at the U.S. Open. Entering the week at Oakmont, he’s playing the exact right type of golf to contend at this venue. He’s devastatingly accurate off the tee and has been well-rounded with the ball-striking, especially on difficult courses. 

Furthermore, despite his historic putting woes, Conners actually has thrived in his career on fast greens, one of the reasons he’s been successful in the Masters. When you take all of this into account, the fit for the 33-year-old Canadian might be better than most people realize, and should be enough to elevate him into contention this week outside of Pittsburgh. 

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