Fact or Fiction: Now Is the Time to Bet Rory McIlroy to Win the Masters

In an all-Rory McIlroy edition, the SI Golf staff also debates his comments on PGA Tour courses and schedule size.

Rory McIlroy's odds to win the Masters fell after his virtuoso performance at Pebble Beach. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Welcome back to SI Golf’s Fact or Fiction, where we’re sad for the end of football season but excited for our own golf seasons to begin before too long.

Once again, we’re here to debate a series of statements for writers and editors to declare as “Fact” or “Fiction” along with a brief explanation. Responses may also (occasionally) be “Neutral” since there's a lot of gray area in golf.

Do you agree or disagree? Let us know on the SI Golf X account.

It’s never too early to speculate on Rory McIlroy and the Masters, especially after his romp through Pebble Beach. He’s the second betting choice on DraftKings at 7-1 and his fans should fire away now. 

Bob Harig: FICTION. In pure betting parlance, this is the wrong time to do so. Rory was a better bet prior to winning. I’m not discounting his ability to win the Masters—I’ve picked him so many times I can’t remember. Might want to wait to see if he falters at all for the odds to improve.

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. His fans should’ve fired away last week before his odds dropped! I think this summer’s Oakmont Open and Quail Hollow PGA Championship will be fantastic opportunities for Rory to end his major drought. And I’d love to see him win at Augusta … but I’ll keep my wallet out of that one. 

John Schwarb: NEUTRAL. Well, I guess it depends on how deep one’s Rory fandom goes. From an odds standpoint, yes now is the time to bet him for the Masters as that number’s not going to move in your favor. But on the other hand, that scar tissue runs so deep at Augusta. DraftKings’s current price of +1100 on Rory at Quail is more attractive to me.

After his third round at Pebble, McIlroy said venues are key parts of the storyline in golf tournaments and “if everything’s on the table for whatever this new-look PGA Tour’s going to be, I think venues are going to be a big part of it.” The Tour should strive to find at least one new course in 2026. 

Bob Harig: FACT. There’s no question the Tour should always be on the lookout for new and dynamic venues. But good luck with that. So much goes into the process starting with the ability to stage big-time golf with all the infrastructure necessary. Rory is not wrong, it’s just not that easy.

Jeff Ritter: FACT. There’s already been some nice buzz (including from us!) around Philadelphia Cricket Club’s upcoming moment in the sun. There’s no reason the PGA Tour couldn’t stake out at least one new venue per calendar year to add a little juice to the schedule.

John Schwarb: FACT. Bob is always the practical voice and he’s right, the name of the game with venues is infrastructure. But might the Tour sacrifice some fan access and luxury suites for certain courses, provided the sponsor is on board?

Making it an all-McIlroy “Fact or Fiction” … he also said last week that the pro golf ecosystem “already has been diminished” and that the PGA Tour should play fewer events. Of all the changes the Tour may consider, playing less is one thing that won’t happen. 

Bob Harig: FACT. The Tour derives considerable revenue every time it plays an event, even if hardly anyone is watching, even if it has a poor field. The title sponsor fees are usually well in excess of 100% of the purse. The TV rights fees are paid based on the overall package of events. Less events means less money. Unless they find a way to extract MORE for fewer events, this is not happening.

Jeff Ritter: FACT. Given the recent contractions around available Tour cards and field sizes, dropping an event or two would fit the Tour trend, but I don’t see how the Tour would do it unless they simply couldn’t renew or find new sponsors for it. 

John Schwarb: FACT. It’s easy for McIlroy to sit atop the pro game, with his lifetime exemption, and call for elimination of some events he’d never play anyway. But the Tour serves a lot of markets and taking away golf from any of them is no way to engender goodwill right now with a wary fan base.