2022 WGC-Dell Match Play: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for Austin Country Club
Many golfers can find a bit of magic for one week of their careers, but few can go back to the same well and do it all over again.
Sam Burns proved he could achieve the latter at the Valspar Championship to become our first repeat champion of the PGA Tour season. There might have been some doubt heading into the week after his lackluster ending at The Players, but there is something about the Copperhead Course that brings the best out of a select few golfers (i.e. Paul Casey, who also repeated as champion in 2018 and 2019). Burns used the good vibes to grind out a playoff win via a 30-foot birdie putt on the second playoff hole.
As for the picks, those who we also thought would bear similar fruit because of their skill set and course history in Abraham Ancer and Jason Kokrak both uncharacteristically missed the cut. Sleeper Adam Svensson flirted with a top-20 finish but sputtered on his final round.
For the best field prior to the Masters, we leave Florida and head to Texas for the WGC-Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club. The PGA Tour heads to Punta Cana, while the World Golf Championships will offer its own version of “March Madness.” We begin on Wednesday this week where 16 groups of four golfers will play head-to-head through Friday. The winner of each group will advance to the knockout rounds, which begin on Saturday and conclude on Sunday.
According to SI Sportsbook, world no. 1 Jon Rahm and the in-form Justin Thomas are co-favorites at 12/1, followed by Norwegian superstar Viktor Hovland at 14/1. Next up is world No. 3 Collin Morikawa at 16/1 and closing out the notables is 2021 runner-up Scottie Scheffler at 18/1.
For our favorite, it’s hard to ignore the level Justin Thomas is playing at right now. There is not much value at 12/1, but this is a match-play event where anything can happen. In this unpredictable format, we must look at the most consistent players right now and JT is at the top. And after what Thomas called a disappointing year in 2021, not many players are as hungry for a win than him. In his last 10 starts, he’s finished eighth or better, which is a remarkable run. He faces Kevin Kisner, Marc Leishman and Luke List in a tough group, but match play, in many cases, comes down to motivation, and it would be hard to find a guy who’s more ready to win than Thomas.
For a midrange pick, Russell Henley at 45/1 looks like he could provide some value for us. Henley has not missed a cut all season and has not finished worse than T33 since the new year. In that run, he lost to Hideki Matsuyama in a heartbreaking playoff at the Sony Open and is coming off two straight T13 performances at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. According to DataGolf, Henley ranks sixth in the world in true strokes-gained over the past six months. Lifetime at the WGC-Dell Match Play, he is 4-6-1, but has never lost prior to the 18th hole, so we’re thinking luck is going to finally turn his way this week.
For a sleeper, we’re going with another guy at the top of his game in Keith Mitchell at 80/1. He’s brimming with confidence this year and has finished in the top-15 in six of his last eight starts. Mitchell will have his hands full with Patrick Cantlay at the top of his group, but Cantlay has stuttered in recent weeks and has never advanced to the knockout stage at Austin Country Club. To round out the group are Sungjae Im and Seamus Power. They too have cooled down in recent weeks, while Mitchell continues his run of good form. Match play should suit Mitchell’s strengths and we like him to take his opportunity to capitalize in a new format.
2021-22 picks scoreboard:
Events: 19
Winners: 2
Top 5s: 5
Top 10s: 2
Top 20s: 1
Here are some notable odds, according to SI Sportsbook:
Jon Rahm 12/1
Justin Thomas 12/1
Viktor Hovland 14/1
Collin Morikawa 16/1
Scottie Scheffler 18/1
Dustin Johnson 20/1
Patrick Cantlay 22/1
Billy Horschel 25/1
Daniel Berger 25/1
Xander Schauffele 25/1
Bryson DeChambeau 28/1
Louis Oosthuizen 30/1
Brooks Koepka 30/1
Tyrrell Hatton 30/1
Jordan Spieth 30/1
Joaquin Niemann 33/1
Paul Casey 33/1
Shane Lowry 35/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 35/1
Sungjae Im 40/1
Adam Scott 45/1
Russell Henley 45/1
Will Zalatoris 45/1
Abraham Ancer 50/1
Tommy Fleetwood 50/1
Brian Harman 50/1
Talor Gooch 50/1
Tony Finau 50/1
Kevin Kisner 50/1
Corey Conners 50/1
Max Homa 50/1
Sergio Garcia 50/1
Alex Noren 60/1
Webb Simpson 66/1
Bubba Watson 66/1
Maverick McNealy 66/1
Jason Kokrak 66/1
Patrick Reed 66/1
Marc Leishman 66/1
Robert Macintyre 66/1
Thomas Pieters 80/1
Si-Woo Kim 80/1
Tom Hoge 80/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80/1
Sepp Straka 80/1
Keith Mitchell 80/1
Justin Rose 100/1
Keegan Bradley 100/1
Cameron Young 100/1
Ian Poulter 100/1
Harold Varner 100/1
Lee Westwood 100/1
Kevin Na 125/1
Erik Van Rooyen 125/1
Cameron Tringale 125/1
Seamus Power 125/1
Lucas Herbert 125/1
Matthew Wolff 125/1
Sebastian Munoz 125/1
Luke List 125/1
Mackenzie Hughes 150/1
Min Woo Lee 150/1
Richard Bland 200/1
Takumi Kanaya 250/1