2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for the Plantation Course at Kapalua

Our new gambling columnist likes Tony Finau to be in the hunt and another player to be all business to win in paradise.

Author:
Keith Stewart, PGA
Publish date:
Jan 3, 2023

Paradise awaits this week as PGA Tour golf returns to the Plantation Course at Kapalua, as the Sentry Tournament of Champions begins a 34-week race to take home the FedEx Cup. What we can expect this week:

The Plantation course is a par-73 layout stretching 7,596 yards.
The scorecard shows 11 Par 4s, four Par 5s and three Par 3s.
The course covers almost 500 acres and reaches a point more than 500 feet above sea level. Expect some uneven lies.
Located on the island of Maui, we expect seasonal weather this weekend.

Temperatures will reach the low 80s and the only rain predicted is early in the week prior to the first round.
Trade winds can make a big difference in scoring at the Sentry. This week looks relatively mild with breezes only reaching the mid-teens.

The field is stronger than it has been in years with 17 of the top 20 players in the world included in the 39-player field.

The average winning score over the last five years at the Sentry is 24 under par. The all-time average over 24 editions at the Plantation Course is 20 under par.
The winners at Kapalua have been strong as well. In the last 10 editions, the average winning odds of the champion are +1500 (15-1).

We have great weather for scoring and with a course that has 12 holes with a birdie rate over 15%, each player better be ready to make a ton of birdies. Scoring at the Sentry requires taking advantage on approach in two ways:

First, eight of the 11 par 4s are under 425 yards in length. Wedge play proximity is a must for scoring chances there.
Second, eight of the other approach shots are over 200 yards. Hit those long irons close on the par-5 second shots and long par 4s. The average par 5 birdie rate is 53%!

Once the competitors hit it close, they must convert. The last 10 winners have all gained strokes on the green. In fact, the last five winners averaged 4.5 strokes-gained putting against the field on these Coore-Crenshaw designed bermudagrass greens. Get it close on approach, capitalize on the green and you have a simple recipe to contend that has been proven since 1999 at the Plantation Course.

Pick to Win: Patrick Cantlay

The Iceman is cool at Kapalua. Patrick Cantlay (+1000 at SI Sportsbook) is one of the finest in the field with the flatstick. Over his last five starts he has gained over two strokes on approach and just under two strokes with the putter. In his last four starts at the Sentry, he has two top 5s and two top-15 finishes. Cantlay is fifth in the field in proximity to the hole and third in par-5 scoring. Over six of his last seven starts, Cantlay has finished in the top 10. Looking for a consistent player who isn’t going on “vacation” this week to drink a bunch of Mai Tais? Then take Cantlay.

Tony Finau is pictured at the 2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open. — Tony Finau is a solid choice to finish in the top quarter of the small field at Kapalua based on recent form.
Erik Williams/USA TODAY Sports

Place: Tony Finau

My placement bet of the week is a top 10 for Tony Finau (-110). Three wins in his last seven starts make him a favorite to win, let alone finish in the top 10, and statistically he's the best player in the field for fit and recent form. Back up an outright bet with this powerful placement on the Plantation Course.

Showdown: Harman Over List

My favorite showdown this week is between Brian Harman and Luke List (Harman -143, List +150 at SI Sportsbook). Harman’s history at Kapalua is great. In two starts, his scoring average is under 70 (69.63). His wedge game and putting makes him a perfect fit against List, whose strokes gained-short game is nearly last in the field. Couple that with a mediocre birdie-or-better percentage and Luke just doesn’t have the scoring force to keep up over 72 holes.