Florida Open Division Bubble Watch: Miami Central, Carrollwood Day Separated by 0.12 Points

Carrollwood Day finished 10-0, beat Cardinal Newman on the road, and still sits just outside Florida’s projected Open Division football playoff field.

The undefeated Patriots trail Miami Central by 0.12 rating points for the final spot heading toward the FHSAA’s bracket reveal at 5 p.m. Friday, Nov. 6. Raines and Venice have moved into the projected field, while Newman and The First Academy have dropped out.

The eight highest-ranked eligible teams from Classes 1A-6A will leave their classification brackets to compete for the Open Division title. The projected positions below use the Oct. 31 MaxPreps update, excluding independent IMG Academy and Carol City under its reported postseason ban.

These are projections, not announced selections. A change in Carol City’s eligibility would alter the field.

6. Raines (10-0): 87.71

Raines moved from fourth outside the field in the previous bubble watch to sixth in the eligible projection after completing a perfect regular season. The Vikings beat Ribault 52-13 in the Northwest Classic on Saturday.

Their resume includes wins over Mandarin, Venice and Cocoa. The 20-17 victory over Venice gives Raines a head-to-head win over the team immediately behind it in the projection.

The Vikings sit 0.33 points above first-out Carrollwood Day. That puts them inside the field heading toward Friday, though close enough to the cutoff to keep watching.

7. Venice (9-1): 87.69

Venice enters the projected field without playing in Week 11. The Indians completed their listed regular-season schedule with a 62-8 win over North Port on Oct. 23.

Their only loss came at Raines. Venice also owns a 32-25 double-overtime win over Lakeland, which now sits fifth in the eligible projection.

The Indians trail Raines by 0.02 points and lead Miami Central by 0.19. Venice’s movement is a reminder that a team’s rating can change even after its own schedule is complete.

8. Miami Central (7-3): 87.50

Miami Central holds the final projected spot after a 27-10 loss to Carol City. The Rockets were fifth in the previous eligible projection but now sit behind Lakeland, Raines and Venice.

Central’s schedule includes a 23-22 win at Orange Lutheran and losses to Buford, Columbus and Carol City. The Rockets finished 5-0 in district play.

Their margin over Carrollwood Day is just 0.12 points. With no additional regular-season game listed, Central must wait to see whether its rating holds above the cutoff.

9. Carrollwood Day (10-0): 87.38

Carrollwood Day made its final case with a 28-14 win at Cardinal Newman, finishing a perfect regular season. The Patriots also beat Jacksonville Trinity Christian 63-21 and Eau Gallie 41-7.

The Newman win moved Carrollwood Day ahead of the Crusaders in the ratings, but the Patriots remain one place outside the eligible eight-team field.

Carrollwood Day scored 545 points and allowed 68 across its 10 wins. Its next destination now depends on the final ratings: an Open Division berth or a place in the Class 1A bracket.

10. Cardinal Newman (6-3): 86.57

Cardinal Newman falls from seventh in the previous projection to 10th after losing to Carrollwood Day. The Crusaders trail Miami Central by 0.93 points and have the Patriots between them and the cutoff.

Unlike several nearby contenders, Newman still has a game listed. The Crusaders are scheduled to host West Broward at 6 p.m. Monday, Nov. 2.

That gives Newman another result before the reveal. A win would improve its record, but it would not guarantee the rating change needed to return to the top eight.

11. American Heritage, Plantation (6-3): 85.76

American Heritage remains in the chase but now trails the final projected spot by 1.74 points. The Patriots completed their listed schedule with a 26-18 win over McArthur on Oct. 23.

Heritage has won four straight since a 21-16 loss at Lakeland. Its other losses came against West Boca Raton and Chaminade-Madonna, both projected Open Division qualifiers.

With no further regular-season game listed, Heritage needs movement in the ratings to pass the teams ahead of it. The Patriots currently lead Class 4A

12. Clearwater Central Catholic (8-2): 85.65

Clearwater Central Catholic closed with a 44-0 win over previously unbeaten Clearwater. It was the Marauders’ third straight victory, following wins over Boca Ciega and Lakewood.

The result strengthened their record but left them 1.85 points below the projected cutoff. Miami Central, Carrollwood Day, Cardinal Newman and American Heritage all remain ahead of them.

Clearwater Central Catholic is still among the teams to track, though it needs a larger shift than the contenders immediately outside the field

13. Columbia (10-0): 85.49

Columbia finished its perfect regular season with a 48-0 win over Suwannee. The Tigers also beat Bolles, Trinity Christian and ED White.

They sit just 0.27 points behind American Heritage in Class 4A, but the Open Division gap is larger. Columbia trails Miami Central by 2.01 points.

The Tigers’ unbeaten record keeps them part of the discussion, though five teams separate them from eighth in the current eligible projection

14. Bolles (7-2): 85.43

Bolles handed Buchholz its first loss with a 31-28 victory Friday. The Bulldogs’ two defeats came against unbeaten Columbia and Jacksonville Trinity Christian.

That finish leaves Bolles 2.07 points below Miami Central and just 0.06 behind Columbia.

The Bulldogs remain in the next group outside the field. Reaching the Open Division would require them to pass several contenders in the final ratings.

15. The First Academy (7-2): 85.23

The First Academy drops from sixth in the previous projection to 15th after a 35-0 loss at Lakeland.

The Royals now trail the final projected spot by 2.27 points.

Their schedule still lists a home game against West Boca Raton at 5 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 3. The Bulls are third in the eligible Open Division projection, giving the Royals a highly rated opponent before the reveal.

The First Academy has more ground to make up than the other teams listed here. That remaining matchup still makes the Royals worth watching before Friday.

Why a Win Does Not Guarantee an Open Division Berth

The Open Division field will come from the final regular-season MaxPreps rankings. An unbeaten record or a head-to-head victory alone does not determine selection.

Newman’s and The First Academy’s listed makeup games could still affect the race. Teams that have finished their schedules can also see their ratings change as other results are added.

Carol City remains another factor. The Chiefs carry a 90.67 rating, which would place them sixth in this projection if eligible. At the current ratings, reinstating Carol City would move Raines to seventh and Venice to eighth, pushing Miami Central outside the field.

For now, Central holds the last projected berth and Carrollwood Day is closest to taking it. Friday’s reveal will settle which teams enter the Open Division and which remain in their class brackets.

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