Grading the Mega-Blockbuster Juan Soto Trade for the Padres and Nationals
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For the better part of a month, MLB has been consumed with discussions about how to appropriately value Juan Soto: If a team is intent on trading a generational talent who may have yet to enter his prime, a 23-year-old superstar, what’s a fair return? Is there a fair return? Finally, hours before the deadline hit on Tuesday, baseball found its answer. After plenty of buzz from teams like the Cardinals and Dodgers, the winner in the end was the Padres, who stepped up and paid out big.
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The Padres get Soto and first baseman Josh Bell—a valuable trade candidate in his own right thanks to his performance at the plate this year. The Nationals get a haul comprising 23-year-old major-league pitcher MacKenzie Gore, 21-year-old major-league shortstop C.J. Abrams, 19-year-old Low-A outfielder James Woods, 21-year-old High-A outfielder Robert Hassell III and 18-year-old complex pitcher Jarlin Susana. (And, no, there’s no Eric Hosmer: While the veteran (and his hefty contract) were reportedly part of an earlier version of the deal, he declined to waive his no-trade clause to approve a move to Washington.) Then, a few hours later, it was reported that first baseman/DH Luke Voit was the final piece of the trade, going from the Padres to the Nationals. Other than Voit, this is a group that just about clears out the top of the system for the Padres and moves a lot of young talent to the Nationals. And it’s still a massive, incredible, near-unprecedented win for San Diego.
Here’s how we’re grading this one:
San Diego’s Side of the Deal
The Padres gave up the biggest package of young talent to change hands in recent memory. Which, yeah, that’s what you do when you have the chance to get Juan Soto. He’s Juan Soto! Not a player who might become a once-in-a-generation talent, not one who could start laying the foundation for a path to the Hall of Fame, not one who may help win a World Series while becoming a perennial MVP candidate and All-Star. This is a player who’s already done all of that. He’s 23, with two and a half more years under team control, and the potential to sign an extension. A front office should be willing to part with just about anyone for a player like that.
You already know how good Soto is. But just a smattering of evidence to prove it: His worst season to date was his rookie year, when as a 19-year-old, he posted a 142 OPS+ and 3.0 Baseball Reference WAR. That means his worst performance was what he did as a teenager and still was better than most players will ever reach. His plate discipline is already the stuff of legend and still has the potential to get even better. Soto is one of just eight players in history with more than 100 home runs and 450 walks in the first five seasons of his career. He is the only one of the eight to play those five seasons so young. (The other seven include Hall of Famers Ted Williams, Eddie Mathews, Ralph Kiner and Frank Thomas.) And you get two and a half seasons of Soto—more, of course, if you can extend him.
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The Padres know the odds are stacked against them with the Dodgers in the NL West. (L.A. currently has a 12-game lead it looks unlikely to relinquish.) They’re not aiming to win the division so much as they are to build a team that can last through the playoffs on a wild-card berth. Soto can help them do that in a big, big, big way. And don’t forget: After being sidelined all season with a wrist fracture, Fernando Tatis Jr. will also be getting added back to this roster soon. The Padres’ August and September have a chance to be much brighter than all their prior months this year, with their sights fixed on October, too.
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And don’t snooze on the other player they picked up in this deal: Josh Bell. The Padres needed to add some offense, and while Soto (obviously) satisfies that requirement on his own, Bell should be a bona fide boost there himself. With a 152 OPS+ this season, he’s been hitting better than he ever has, while posting a career-low strikeout rate, too. He’s a free agent at the end of this year, but even as just a rental, his bat should be much appreciated down the stretch and into October. As for Voit, the Padres are losing a useful young hitter in him, but for the rest of this year, sure, they’d rather have Bell’s bat than Voit’s (113 OPS+).
In the short term, San Diego has done a lot to improve its chances for a deep playoff run. In the slightly-less short term, it’s secured a generational superstar that can meaningfully change the club trajectory for the next few years. Yes, the price was high. But it was always going to be.
GRADE: A+
Washington’s Side of the Deal
It’s tricky to grade this for the Nationals. Because, truly, it doesn’t seem as if there is a realistic “fair” return for a player like Soto at age 23. (Baseball Trade Values agrees.) It’s reasonable to say that any trade here automatically grades as a failure. A win does not exist in the right prospect package. It exists in keeping Juan Soto.
But that wasn’t ever going to happen. If the Nationals had kept Soto now, it would have been only until they could move him over the winter. The front office was intent on moving him. And so, grading within that specific context, they did… perfectly fine. This return is a lot of talent. As far as getting Voit goes, my question is this: Does Mike Rizzo have time to flip Voit to a contender before 6 p.m. ET? If that happens, it might boost Washington’s grade slightly.
Here’s where various outlets ranked these prospects within the Padres’ organization—not including MacKenzie Gore, who was previously considered another top prospect right along with all of these names, until he debuted in the bigs earlier this year and had played long enough to emerge as a Rookie of the Year candidate before his recent injury.
| FanGraphs | MLB Pipeline | Baseball America | |
|---|---|---|---|
C.J. Abrams | 1 | N/A | 1 |
Robert Hassell III | 3 | 1 | 2 |
James Wood | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Jarlin Susana | 8 | 14 | 10 |
*Because Abrams has made his big-league debut, he’s no longer ranked by Pipeline, but he remains on the other lists since his rookie eligibility is still intact. Pipeline had Abrams ranked No. 1 in the organization before his debut.
That’s a lot of quality players! The set includes both pitchers and up-the-middle talent. There are some who are ready for the majors and some who will be there in the next few years. It’s just about everything you could want for this kind of rebuild—talent all over the diamond whose potential impact will be staggered over the next few seasons.
And maybe, if they're lucky, just one of them will be in the same realm as Juan Soto.
GRADE: B
