Which Wild Card Team Makes the Ideal Opponent for the Houston Astros in the ALDS?

The Houston Astros can expect to face the Blue Jays, Mariners, or Rays in the postseason. Which opponent are they most likely to beat?

Author:
Leo Morgenstern
Publish date:
Sep 17, 2022 3:00 PM EDT

In this story:

Houston Astros

On Friday evening, with a 5-0 victory over the Oakland Athletics, the Houston Astros clinched a playoff berth for the sixth straight season. Shortly, they will clinch a first-round bye as well, meaning they do not have to play in the brand new Wild Card round of the MLB postseason.

If the Astros also finish with the best record in the American League (and it's looking more and more certain that they will), then they will be guaranteed to play one of the three Wild Card teams in the American League Division Series.

Barring a miraculous late-season run by the Baltimore Orioles, that means either the Seattle Mariners, the Toronto Blue Jays or the Tampa Bay. Rays.

As of right now, all three of those teams are within half a game of one another. They could finish the season in any order, and any of them could beat the others in a three-game Wild Card series.

Therefore, Houston must be prepared to face either Seattle, Toronto or Tampa Bay in their first postseasons series of 2022. While all three of these teams are quite evenly matched with one another, would any one of them make a better matchup for the Astros in the ALDS?

Let's take a look.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Astros have been a better team than the Blue Jays this season. That tracks, considering they've been better than every team in baseball outside of Central Los Angeles.

However, while Houston is the stronger overall team, they do still have flaws, and Toronto is well-positioned to exploit those weaknesses for their own gain.

The Astros have one of the best lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching. Against righties, however, their lineup is somewhat less fearsome. And unfortunately, the Blue Jays have right-handed pitching in spades. Their entire playoff starting rotation will be right-handed, including aces Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah.

Their bullpen is predominantly right-handed too, featuring star closer Jordan Romano and the talented set-up duo of Yimi García and Anthony Bass. To beat Toronto, Houston will need to step up their game against right-handed pitching.

Moreover, while the Astros will have home field advantage, it may not be as big of an advantage as they'd like it to be.

The Blue Jays beat them in a three-game series in Houston earlier this season, and Toronto's lineup – which features some of the strongest right-handed power bats in the league – is well-built to win at Minute Maid Park.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays rely on their southpaws more than the Blue Jays or the Mariners. Two of their top three starters, Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs, are lefties.

Houston can expect to face a left-handed starting pitcher in three out of five ALDS games against Tampa Bay. They won't be easy lefties — McClanahan and Springs have been fantastic this season — but then again, this is the playoffs. None of the pitching will be easy, but at least having the platoon advantage will help.

In addition, home field advantage will help quite a bit against the Rays, who have struggled on the road this season.

While Tampa's home record of 47-25 ranks third in the AL, their away record of 33-39 ranks ninth. Both their pitching staff and their offense have been noticeably worse on the road than at home.

Seattle Mariners

The Astros know they can beat the Mariners. They've done so in 12 of 19 contests this year. With home field advantage, they're 7-3.

Overall, however, the Seattle has actually been quite good on the road in 2022. Their 41-31 road record ranks fifth in baseball and second in the American League. Home field advantage will still help Houston, but not as much as it would were they playing Tampa Bay.

Like the Rays, the Mariners will also have a left-handed starter in their playoff rotation: Robbie Ray.

Depending on how the Wild Card round shakes out and how long the ALDS lasts, the Astros might face Ray once or they might face him twice. If Houston does get to face Ray in two separate games, it could prove to be a major advantage.

While he is the reigning AL Cy Young, Ray has pitched more like a mid-rotation starter this season. He has been less imposing than either McClanahan or Springs. What's more, he has struggled mightily against Houston this season (10.97 ERA in three starts).

In summation, the Astros know they can beat the Mariners, and they really know they can beat Robbie Ray.

In Conclusion

While all three Wild Card teams are similarly talented, the Blue Jays would present the hardest challenge for the Astros in the ALDS.

As for the Rays and Mariners, it's a little harder to say. Tampa Bay relies more on left-handed pitchers and has struggled outside of Tropicana field this season. The Mariners, on the other hand, are the most familiar foe, and the Astros know they can beat them.

Ultimately, no matter which Wild Card team they face, Houston will have the upper hand. They're the best team in the American League, and, as such, they will pose a huge challenge to any opponent they take on.