Chad Smith's Intriguing Stat That You Need to Know Before He Breaks Out
The Oakland A's have made a lot of transactions this winter, including trading yet another fan favorite, Sean Murphy, so it's easy to understand why the team trading for a 27-year-old reliever may have flown under the radar. Fans will be paying close attention to the likes of Kyle Muller and Esteury Ruiz next season, but Smith offers a lot of intrigue as well.
Currently in the bullpen mix for Opening Day are new signee Trevor May, Zach Jackson and Dany Jimenez, who both spent time closing out games in 2022. A.J. Puk if he doesn't make the rotation would slot back into his spot from last season, Sam Moll, who led the '22 bullpen in ERA with a 2.97, Tyler Cyr, who had a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings with the A's, Domingo Acevedo made 70 appearances and held a 3.33 ERA, and Kirby Snead has tons of movement on his pitches and could be a breakout candidate for 2023. There's also the potential for a starter to be moved to the bullpen if they don't make the rotation, like Adam Oller or JP Sears. That's eight to ten arms right there.
Then there's 27-year-old right-hander Chad Smith.
Smith was acquired by the A's at the beginning of December in exchange for prospect Jeff Criswell, the A's second round selection in the 2020 Draft.
His stat line from 2022 won't wow you. He went 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and walked 15 in 18 innings in the big leagues.
But as you dig a little deeper, Smith becomes a very interesting arm. Six of the 15 runs he allowed on the season came in his second career outing in the majors and his first at Coors Field. The Miami Marlins were also feeling it that night and were hitting just about everyone the Rockies threw out there. The Marlins won 14-1. Minus that one appearance, his ERA sits at 4.76. His xERA, or expected ERA, was 3.91 even with that outing. The league average reliever had a 3.86 ERA last year.
A bad outing at Coors is perfectly acceptable, especially if it's his first time out there.
But we didn't bring you all here to talk about "ifs" "or "maybes." No, there is something he did, albeit in a small sample size, that could make him one of the better relievers in the A's bullpen. Smith's slider is the real deal, folks.
While his fastball averages 96 mph, his slider comes in at 85.2, and he also mixes in a changeup occasionally to lefties. That slider had a whiff% of 56% in his 18 innings with Colorado and had a batting average against of just .100. We're dealing with a small sample size, but that's one heck of a starting point.
Of all the pitches in baseball, Smith's slider ranked 15th in whiff% among pitchers that had at least ten plate appearances thrown. Among sliders, his ranks 7th--higher than the whiff% that Mets closer Edwin Díaz, arguably the game's best closer heading into 2023.
But Díaz isn't the guy that interests me on this leaderboard. Instead, it's the reliever a few spots above Smith, not behind, and a former A himself, Liam Hendriks.
It wasn't until Hendriks, 29 at the time, was DFA'd in 2018 that he came back and really figured things out in September of that year, posting a 1.38 ERA in the final month of the season and not allowing a run in his final eleven appearances. That season his whiff% was at 46.4% on his slider, and he followed that up with a 53.9% in 2019. This past season he posted a 66.9% whiff rate with the slider.
The one big difference between Hendriks and Smith is that Hendrik's command has largely been fantastic throughout his career, while Smith had a 17.6% walk rate last season. The upshot here is that the A's know what worked for Hendriks, and could be hoping to recreate that same success with Smith.
One smaller difference is that Smith doesn't throw quite as hard as Liam, who averages 98 on his fastball, and the former A also uses a four-seamer instead of a sinker.
What is most intriguing here is how the A's approach revamping Chad Smith. Are they going to re-work his pitch mix and try to duplicate the success they had with Liam Hendriks, or will they focus more on Smith's mechanics in the hope of getting him to issue fewer walks? His walks per nine in Triple-A last season was just 2.89, but that skyrocketed to 7.50 in the big leagues.
On top of the high whiff rate with his slider, Smith has also produced close to a 60% ground ball rate at every stop in his pro career, dating back to 2016. The league average for relievers last year was 43.5%, so if he can add a few more grounders to the 55.6% he posted in 2022, he'd be a top-20 reliever in that stat as well.
The A's have a lot of bullpen options for 2022, but the fact that they traded away their second-rounder from just a couple of years ago should give you an idea that they see something in Chad Smith that they feel they can unlock. He may be a work in progress in 2023, but keep your eye on him, and don't be surprised if he starts feasting on late innings.