Projecting A's Zack Gelof for 2024
Zack Gelof burst onto the scene when he made his MLB debut in the second half, providing hope for a dwindling Oakland A's fanbase in a rough season on and off the field. While the fans may feel disconnected from the team while ownership plans to relocate the franchise to Las Vegas, players like Gelof still made them cheer.
The 24-year-old second baseman got into 69 games with Oakland in the second half of the season and hit .267 with a .337 OBP, 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Over the course of a full season he may be primed for a 30/30 season.
Jose Canseco is the only player to ever have a 30/30 season for the A's in 1988, and that season he was actually the first member of the 40/40 club in MLB history, hitting 42 homers and stealing 40 bases. The A's have had a lot of good players on the roster over the years, but none of them have been able to do what Canseco could in '88. Gelof has the skill set and a shot.
Over at FanGraphs, they have released their projections for the 2024 season, and we'll be taking a look at players individually over the coming weeks. Today is the first installment, looking at arguably the most exciting player on the roster.
So just how good do the projections think Gelof will be next season?
Starting off, they have him playing in 138 games, which is exactly double his total from last season. So just double all of his counting stats, right? Well, not quite.
According to the projections, Gelof is set to struggle a bit more than he did in his debut, batting .238 with a .308 OBP, 20 home runs and 19 stolen bases. If he's that close, may as well let him run until he gets number 20, right? So mark him down for a 20/20 season.
His wRC+ in 2023 was 133, or 33% above league average. In his first full season, FanGraphs has him at a 101. Still above league average, but just barely. For the sake of comparison, he'd be going from the season Corbin Carroll had (133 wRC+, top-15 player in baseball) to a Bryson Stott season (101 wRC+, 90th in baseball). Stott isn't a bad player by any means, but the excitement around Gelof is just higher.
They still have him walking 8.6% (8.7% in 2023) of the time, and striking out at a similar rate (28.3% to 27.3%), but the big difference in his projections is in his BABIP, which sat at .331 last season. That dropped all the way to .306, which would account for the differences in batting average and OBP, and some of the drop in wRC+.
The good news with BABIP is that there is some luck involved, but players that routinely have high BABIPs aren't doing it purely because they're lucky. They also run out of the box, or place balls where the defense isn't. Gelof had a .410 BABIP in 69 Triple-A games last season, a .358 in Double-A in 2022, and a .366 in A Ball in 2021. There may be more than just luck involved with Gelof's approach.
If his BABIP stays around where it was, then his average, OBP, and wRC+ would go up, but that likely wouldn't do much for his home run total. Getting on base more often than expected would help him swipe a few more bags, however.
Obviously the projections aren't perfect, but they do point to the fact that most players tend to struggle a little more in their second season. Gelof is no longer a rookie, and while this is far from a make-or-break season for him, the 2024 campaign could be his chance to prove that he's no fluke. He's here to make some noise.