A's Slugger on His Way to Becoming the Next Aaron Judge

The New York Yankees' slugger has been the best hitter in baseball for years, but he should have some legitimate competition for that title before long

Jul 25, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Athletics designated hitter Nick Kurtz (16) hits his third home run of the game during the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Nick Kurtz has been having an unforgettable rookie campaign, and as Baseball Savant recently wrote, it's one of the best by a rookie of all time. The A's first baseman is ranked No. 19 in fWAR heading into the week with 4.3 wins above replacement on the season, and while having that big of an impact immediately is impressive, he's also cracked the top-20 in just 100 games played.

Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees has played in 133 games and leads all of baseball with 7.9 WAR, and while Kurtz wouldn't be able to touch that—even at his current rate of production—in a similar number of games, he'd easily be in the top-10, if not top-5 bats in all of baseball with a full season of games.

Over the course of the whole season, Kurtz is one of 19 players to have hit at least 29 home runs this year, tied with four players at that mark, including teammate Shea Langeliers. The power is certainly impressive, and was displayed for everyone when he launched four home runs in a 6-for-6 night in Houston at the end of July. He was also the first rookie to achieve the four-homer in a game feat.

Aug 26, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson (5), left, celebrates with first baseman Nick Kurtz (16) at home plate after hitting a three run home run during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

But what is most impressive is that among players with at least 415 plate appearances, only three players entered Monday with an OPS above 1.000. Kurtz was obviously one of them with a 1.032, while Judge was at the top with a 1.099, and Shohei Ohtani came in with a 1.001.

Judge and Ohtani are the odds-on favorites to win the MVP awards each and every season, so for the A's rookie to be in that group is truly impressive. Even Cal Raleigh his and 53 home runs isn't at that level.

Players can hit there way into a .900 OPS with some luck involved or a ridiculous hot streak, but reaching the 1.000 plateau takes some real talent and consistency over the course of a season.

Since 2015, there have been a total of 34 player seasons that ended with an OPS above 1.000 (in 400+ plate appearances), and Judge has five of those, MIke Trout has three, Bryce Harper has three, and there are a number of other sluggers on the list that could end up in the Hall of Fame. Kurtz is currently on that list, tied for 16th with 2017 Joey Votto.

Is Kurtz the next Aaron Judge?

Aug 30, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Aaron Judge (99) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a solo home run against the Chicago White Sox during the fourth inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

On the one hand, Judge plays the outfield, which will earn him points defensively when it comes to his WAR total, while Kurtz is stationed at first base, so a race for AL MVP may not quite be in the cards just yet, but let's compare Kurtz's stats with Judge's rookie season.

Kurtz: 419 PA / 29 HR / .301 BA / .397 OBP / 1.021 OPS / 13.8% BB / 30.3 % K

Judge: 678 PA / 52 HR / .284 BA / .422 OBP / 1.049 OPS / 18.7% BB / 30.7 % K

In terms of wRC+, the two are nearly identical, with Judge putting up a 174 (100 is league average) in his rookie campaign, while Kurtz entered Monday's game with a 177. He ended up going 0-for-4 with a strikeout facing Garrett Crochet and the Boston Red Sox.

The strikeout rate for Kurtz has been one factor that has been talked about a bit as a minor detractor from his tremendous season, but in the second half of the season it has dropped to 26.7% as he has gained more exposure to big-league pitching. Plus, striking out was never really a big part of his game in college (last season), so there is reason to believe that rate will be coming down a touch.

The other factor that will need a little improvement for him to unlock his full Judge-ian skill set will be to improve a little against southpaws. While he's having one of the best rookie seasons of all time and has delivered some key hits against tough left-handers, he's batting .186 against them with a .258 OBP on the season and a 71 wRC+.

Against right-handers, he's batted .352 with a .455 on-base, and 219 wRC+. In other words, he's far and away the best hitter in baseball when there's a righty on the mound (Judge leads MLB with a 192 wRC+ total). Judge, as a righty, also enjoys hitting against left-handers, holding a 210 wRC+ on the year, batting .330 with a .481 OBP.

Against righties, Judge is also the best hitter in the league, however, with a 187 wRC+ while batting .318 with a .431 on-base. That will be the next hill to climb for Kurtz as he continues to develop, but he certainly has the tools to be classified in the Judge tier of players in the game—just not quite yet.