A's Rotation Competition Heating Up

Entering camp, the projected rotation for the A's on Opening Day consisted of Paul Blackburn, James Kaprielian, Drew Rucinski, Shintaro Fujinami, and Ken Waldichuk, barring everyone staying healthy through the spring.

Kaprielian has yet to make his spring debut as he continues to rehab from off-season surgery, but he could be getting his first game action soon.

Blackburn made his 2023 debut on Sunday and after an okay first inning, allowing one run on a walk, a single, and a wild pitch, he started the second inning but didn't record a single out. He gave up back-to-back singles to begin the frame, then tossed another wild pitch, before allowing two more singles and a walk. Jake Fishman came on in relief and allowed two of the runners he inherited to score.

Blackburn's final line: 1 IP, 5 hits, 6 ER, 2 BB, K, 2 wild pitches. The box score had his pitch count at 43, which is roughly in line with where the other A's starters have been at this point in camp, though spring box scores are unreliable.

Rucinski, signed to a one year deal with a club option out of the KBO, has made two starts so far, and his first start included having to learn how to call pitches with PitchCom, and also the newly instituted pitch clock, which helped contribute to three runs allowed in two innings.

Overall he has a line of 5 IP, 10 hits, 6 ER, BB, 6 K. Five of those strikeouts came in his second start after he noted he wanted to miss more bats after his first start. While some fans aren't impressed with Rucinski through two Spring Training starts, he's going to be on the team, and most likely in the rotation. He has a guaranteed $3MM deal, and he's out of options. They aren't going to just cut him and eat that money based off of two spring starts.

Shintaro Fujinami impressed in his first start for Oakland, facing off against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. He looked un-hittable in his first inning of work with a nasty 91-92 mph splitter that just dove out of the zone. In his second inning of work, he walked three straight batters to begin the frame, then after a mound visit struck out the next batter, and induced a double play to get out of the inning unscathed.

Those four, if healthy, are very likely to be in the A's starting rotation on Opening Day.

Ken Waldichuk is still very much in the running, but his first two appearances this spring may have left the door open for Kyle Muller, Adam Oller, Freddy Tarnok, or Adrián Martínez.

Waldichuk, a 25-year-old lefty and the A's #2 prospect according to FanGraphs, has totaled 2.2 innings this spring, allowed five runs on five hits and four walks, and struck out three. Obviously a 16.88 ERA isn't going to wow anyone, but it's two spring appearances.

The more worrisome factor here is that Waldichuk hasn't gotten deep into either game he's thrown, letting his pitch count get out of hand early. For his first start, most starters were racking up two innings, or at would least begin a second frame. Waldichuk managed one inning from his allotted pitches.

In his second start, most starters are expected to go three to four innings on roughly 45-50 pitches. Waldichuk reached 45 pitches after an inning and two-thirds on Sunday against the Padres.

Spring statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, especially for pitchers, because they can be working on a new pitch, or a new grip (like JP Sears), and those changes take a minute to take effect. It is spring training after all.

But Waldichuk managing a total of 2.2 innings through two appearances is a different beast, because that could eat up an entire bullpen in the regular season and have a multi-day impact on the club.

By no means is Waldichuk out of the running for a spot in the rotation. He'll still have chances to make adjustments. But rather than hits or walks allowed in his next outing, it'll be important for the southpaw to give the A's length. If he goes another two or three innings when the expectation is four to five, then he may be passed over to begin the year in Oakland.

If that's the case, how well have the other starters performed that are vying for a spot?

As I noted in my roster prediction this past weekend, JP Sears is a member of my bullpen, and with the A's potentially considering a six-man rotation, or a spot-starter on occasion, Sears seems to fit that role nicely.

Kyle Muller, acquired as part of the Sean Murphy trade, would be the most likely next-man up. So far this spring he has totaled 4.2 innings in two appearances, given up seven hits, four runs (three earned), walked two and struck out four. He was stellar in his first outing, but struggled in his second go around facing the Kansas City Royals.

Freddy Tarnok, another piece of the Murphy deal, is a 24-year-old righty that some consider a future bullpen arm, but he has performed well so far this spring. In five innings spanning two appearances, he's given up four hits and walked two, leading to one run allowed while striking out three. He's a fly ball pitcher, and that could work well in the spacious Coliseum.

Adam Oller gave up a home run on the first pitch he threw this spring, but otherwise has been stellar. In two appearances, he has tossed 5.2 innings, including 3.2 in his second outing. He's given up six hits, two runs, walked two, and struck out seven. Conversely to Tarnok, Oller has been a ground ball pitcher this spring, with seven outs coming on grounders compared to just one in the air. When had success in the past, he's been a ground ball pitcher, so we could be seeing a different version of Oller in 2023. He's certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Finally, there's Adrián Martínez, who was acquired from the Padres in the Sean Manaea deal a year ago. The righty got the loss against the Padres on Sunday, allowing three unearned runs after back-to-back errors and a wild pitch in the bottom of the fourth. This spring he has totaled four innings pitched, three hits allowed, three runs (zero earned runs), walked one and struck out three. Martínez will be a member of Team Mexico for the World Baseball Classic, so we'll see how he fares against some of the best players in the world.

It's a tight race, and if it's going to be spring outings that determine who lands on the A's Opening Day roster, then it's anybody's ball game with three weeks to go.