Buying or Selling Oakland A's Spring Stats?
Early games in Spring Training can be tough to analyze from a purely statistical standpoint because the games consist of lots of substitutions, which means lots of minor league players looking to make an impression on their coaching staff get playing time against big league regulars. This holds true for both pitchers and hitters, so when we see someone dominating camp, it's important to also look at the level of competition they're facing.
That's what we're going to do today, in an effort to provide more intel about guys trying to make the A's 26-man roster.
As a team, the A's hold an .828 OPS, seventh-best in baseball. They've drawn the most walks (71, 13.8% walk rate), scored the fourth-most runs (79), are eighth in stolen bases with 14, tenth in batting average at .267, and second in OBP with a .384. Those all sound great for a team that ranked near the bottom of baseball in all of those categories a year ago, but again, these are still the early days of camp. Even the best starting pitchers in baseball are lasting just three or four innings at this point, meaning more unproven arms getting a shot.
So which spring performances can we buy, and which ones do we need more data on?
Pache is fighting for a spot on the A's Opening Day roster, and given that he is out of minor league options, he's also essentially fighting to stay with the organization. If he isn't named to the Opening Day roster, he'd have to be placed on waivers, where a team would likely take a chance on him given his otherworldly defense. The front office could also look to trade him if they feel that he isn't going to make the club, so they at least get something in return for him, instead of losing him to a waiver claim.
Pache, 24, is having a solid spring by the numbers. He's 7-for-19 (.368) with a .400 OBP, a double, a triple, three rbi, a pair of runs, and a walk. His lone strikeout came in the exhibition game against Team Colombia on Wednesday, so it doesn't count against his official spring stat line.
That line, by the numbers, would likely be enough to warrant giving him a roster spot in Oakland. The one issue here is that the competition he's been facing on the mound hasn't all been Major League caliber. Over at Baseball Reference, they have a tool during camp where they compile the level of player each person is facing. 10 is an MLB player, 8 is Triple-A, 7 is Double-A, 5 is High-A, and 4 is A Ball. Pache comes in with an opponent rating of 6.6, or somewhere between High-A and Double-A.
The stat line is great, but he's going to have to continue his hot start to not leave any doubt that he belongs in Oakland. For what it's worth, I've written about Pache being a platoon option with Seth Brown, with Brown facing righties, and Pache taking on left-handers. So far this spring, Pache is 3-for-5 with a double against southpaws.
JJ Bleday
Bleday was acquired by the A's in the A.J. Puk trade right before camp began, and he is another outfielder vying for a spot on the Opening Day roster. He made his big-league debut last season with the Miami Marlins and hit just .167 with a .277 OBP in 238 plate appearances. He may need a little more time in Triple-A, and he has options remaining, so that's an option for the A's to consider.
So far this spring, Bleday, 25, is 6-for-19 (.316) with a .406 on-base, a double, one stolen base, two walks, and six strikeouts. He went 0-for-5 to start, but in March he's batting .429 (6-for-14) and has recorded at least one hit in each of the four games he's played. His opponent rating is a 7.3, or roughly Double-A pitching on average.
The tougher question when it comes to Bleday and the A's roster construction would be where to play him. Seth Brown will be in left at the very least against right-handers, Ramón Laureano will be in right, and Esteury Ruiz is the presumed Opening Day centerfielder. Brown is the only real platoon candidate, but he's a lefty like Bleday, who is 0-for-5 against left-handers this spring. Last season with Miami he went 7-for-43 (.163) against them, roughly in line with his overall average.
Esteury Ruiz
Ruiz, 24, is another trade acquisition from the off-season, coming over in the Sean Murphy three-team deal. Ruiz also made his debut last season as a member of the San Diego Padres before he was traded to Milwaukee. Between the two stops he hit a combined .171 (6-for-35) with a .194 OBP. In the minors, he had a breakout season, batting .332 with a .447 on-base and 85 steals.
The talent is there. We just have to see if it'll translate to the Majors.
So far in camp, Ruiz is 3-for-16 (.188) with a .333 on-base, a home run, he's tied for the team lead in rbi with Lawrence Butler at 7, swiped two bags, has scored 5 runs, and has walked (3) as many times as he's struck out. The stat line may not be sterling, but the production is certainly there. He's showing that he can have an impact on games. If the stats are correct (which isn't always a given in spring training), he's been on base seven times (three hits, three walks, one hit by pitch) and scored five runs.
His quality of opponent rating comes in at 7.7, or just below Triple-A.
Kevin Smith is another player that I have placed on my projected Opening Day roster because of his stellar defense on the left side of the infield, and his ability to rake against lefties.
Smith, 26, is having a stellar spring, going 6-for-17 (.353) with a .389 OBP, a homer, a hit by pitch, four rbi, and three runs scored. He hit just .180 with a .216 on-base across 47 games with the A's last season, leading to his demotion to Triple-A. In September with the Aviators, he hit .365 with a .405 OBP, 11 homers, 19 rbi, and swiped two bags. He was absolutely on fire.
While he has continued that hot stretch into camp, he's also holding an opponent rating of 6.9, or right about Double-A level pitching.
Shintaro Fujinami
Fuji is going to make the A's rotation, that isn't in question. His inclusion here is just because he's one of the more talked about members of the current squad, and is still a relative unknown. The 28-year-old signed with the A's out of Japan in January on a one-year deal.
He has impressed with his high-90s fastball and his splitter which sits 91-92 and has late downward movement. This spring, Fuji has totaled five innings, given up just two hits, one run, walked five, and struck out six. The lone run he allowed came in the bottom of the second in his start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday. He walked the leadoff batter, who advanced to second on a ground out, and then to third on a wild pitch. With two outs in the inning, Arizona collected its only hit and only run off Fuji on a Diego Castillo single.
The results have been great. The competition hasn't been what he'll be facing in Oakland, however. Baseball Reference has his opponent rating at 6.3. In his first start against the Angels, he didn't face Mike Trout, he didn't face Shohei Ohtani (in the batters box) or Anthony Rendon. He did strike out the first batter he faced, however, in David Fletcher. That in itself is an impossible task, so maybe we should buy into his stat line.
To be clear, this isn't to say that players with a low opponent's rating can't put up the numbers they've been producing. This exercise is just meant to show that there is still work ahead.
Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. He also covers the Stanford Cardinal as they attempt to rebuild numerous programs to prominence.
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