Osvaldo Bido is the Most Underrated A's Starter Heading into 2025

Aug 23, 2024; Oakland, California, USA; Oakland Athletics relief pitcher Osvaldo Bido (45) before the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

With the Athletics splashing cash around this winter, it's easy to forget about some of the players that had mini breakouts over the course of the 2024 season. Osvaldo Bido was certainly one of those players, posting a 3.41 ERA (3.36 FIP) across 63 1/3 innings, along with a 1.09 WHIP.

Bido started the 2024 campaign in the minors and received his first call-up to pitch part of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in May. It wasn't until late June that he returned to Oakland, pitching out of the bullpen, and he had to wait until July 23 to make his first start that wasn't a one-time deal.

As a starter he held a 4.14 ERA in 45 2/3 innings, and out of the bullpen he managed a 1.53 ERA across 17 2/3 frames. The ERA as a starter was inflated just a bit because of one bad outing he had against the Los Angeles Angels, allowing seven runs in 3 2/3 innings, but he rebounded nicely by pitching lights out in August.

Beginning the month with a start against the eventual World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, Bido compiled 29 innings of work in August with a 1.55 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP. Arguably the most impressive stat he produced was that he allowed just 14 hits in that time, aided by the fact that he gave up two or fewer hits in three straight starts against the Toronto Blue Jays on the road, then the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays at home.

His final outing of August came on the road in Cincinnati, and it snapped his two-or-fewer streak when he gave up three hits to the Reds across six innings of two-run ball.

While it's tough to project a huge amount of success given this small bit of track record, there was a discussion on the Rates and Barrels Podcast about which stats they look to in order to determine how good a pitcher is.

One of the metrics they mentioned was strikeout rate as a predictor of success, and Bido had a 24.3% strikeout rate, two percent better than league average. That rate was actually slightly higher when he started games, sitting at 25.8%.

While that may not seem like a huge deal, Bido's strikeout rate as a starting pitcher ranked No. 1 among all A's starters last season--even higher than the recently traded Joe Boyle. While ground balls will be good to have in Sacramento with the front office unsure of how the park will play with big league hitters, strikeouts are even more effective than grounders, and Bido was the best of the bunch.

The podcast even mentioned Bido by name as an interesting player to keep an eye on because of his arm angle (34 degrees), coupled with average vertical break on his fastball, because they say hitters would expect "more sinker-y movement from that arm slot."

They also pointed to his Stuff+ metrics, which have three of his five pitches being above average, and the run value on four of his five offerings being in the positive last season.

Those are the nerdy versions for why Bido could be a sleeper candidate in the A's rotation. Let's zoom back out to an easier concept to grasp, K-BB%, or strikeout minus walk percentage.

Last season the league average K-BB% was 14.4%, and Bido, even with a 10% walk rate, was right in line with that at 14.3%. It went up to 17.2% in the nine games he started. If you take that rate as a starter, it just shy of the rate that Lucas Erceg, the A's setup man for the first half of the season, put up at 17.9%.

Overall, Bido's 14.3% ranked No. 7 on the A's staff among pitchers with at least ten innings, and Brady Basso is the only player that started a game that was ahead of him. Yet, Basso's K-BB% was elevated due to his time in the bullpen, and his rate as a starting pitcher was 13.6%.

If we include Bido's 14.3% rate as league average, then the A's had just seven pitchers that were at least average in this stat, and Bido is one of two that has the ability to also start games. Two of the pitchers ahead of Bido, Erceg (17.9%) and Austin Adams (15.7%) are no longer with the club.

While the top three spots in the A's rotation are pretty much set with Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, and JP Sears, the final two slots are going to be an open competition. Mitch Spence would appear to have a slight edge for one of the two given his command, but Bido, Joey Estes, J.T. Ginn, and Jacob Lopez will also be in the mix.

If there is an injury, Ginn and Bido could both be in the mix for different reasons. Bido, for the strong stretch of games he had in August along with the underlying metrics, and Ginn for his consistently solid ground ball rates, which sat at 54.1% in the minors last season.

This spring's battle for those final two spots should be very interesting to watch.