Comparing the A's Current Rebuild to the Last One
Right now the A's are in the middle of their latest rebuild and we don't know how it will turn out. They could win a World Series or two. They could lose in the first round of the playoffs. They could miss the playoffs entirely with the new group. We just don't know.
But with prospect lists coming out, it feels like a good time to take a look at where the A's are now compared to where they were in the second season of their last rebuild. Where did Matt Olson and Matt Chapman rank on prospect lists? Who was already on the big league team? Are the A's in a better or worse spot in their current rebuild?
Let's find out.
As of right now, the A's have either one or two top 100 prospects depending on which list you're looking at. 21-year-old C/1B Tyler Soderstrom is hands-down a top 100 prospect, but where he falls within those 100 names is up to which list you're looking at. Keith Law of The Athletic puts him at #60, and lists him as the only member of the A's on the top 100.
MLB Pipeline lists Soderstrom at #39 overall, and also adds Ken Waldichuk, the 25-year-old lefty acquired as part of the Frankie Montas deal, at #76 overall. Those two players are the only top 100 prospects that the A's have on the released lists so far.
Back in 2016, the A's had a prospect as high as #23 on Pipeline's top 100, and that was Franklin Barreto. Jorge Mateo also made the list at #30 that year, but he wouldn't be traded to Oakland until the 2017 Trade Deadline, and he'd fallen a little to #47 by that point.
Grant Holmes was another prospect that would be brought over, ranked #62, who would be acquired at the Trade Deadline, this time in 2016 along with Frankie Montas and Jharel Cotton in exchange for Josh Reddick and Rich Hill.
Sean Manaea was ranked #68 heading into 2016, and he went on to become a fan favorite. Frankie Montas (pre-acquisition) was #95 and Matt Olson rounded out the list at #100.
By number, the previous rebuild has a leg up in this case, with Barreto, Manaea, and Olson being in the organization at the start of 2016 with more to come in future trades.
Beyond those three, though, the A's top 30 list thins out pretty quickly. Behind Olson at #3 in the A's system, there's Richie Martin, who was taken by the Orioles in the Rule 5 Draft in 2018 and has a career 53 OPS+ in 170 games. Renato Nuñez came in at #5 on the list, and he was claimed off waivers in 2018, and also spent some time with the Orioles.
Then Chapman comes in at #6, followed by Yairo Muñoz at #7, whom the A's traded in the Stephen Piscotty deal.
Rounding out the top 10 were Chad Pinder, Casey Meisner (traded for Tyler Clippard), and Dillon Overton. Joey Wendle, the A's #13 prospect, has turned in a nice career with the Rays and Marlins, and Daniel Mengden at #14 has also spent some time in the majors with the A's and Royals.
The second half of the top 30 from 2016 has standouts like Ryon Healy, Skye Bolt, and Ryan Dull, but most of the guys listed haven't made the big leagues and are out of the game now.
The 2016 Oakland A's went 69-93. Marcus Semien was already up and leading the team in WAR with 3.5 wins above replacement. He also ranked 4th in all of baseball in errors. Remember, Semien was still a work in progress at this point, as was Chris Bassitt, who went 0-2 in five starts in 2016 and held a 6.11 ERA at the age of 27.
Ryan Madson was a 35-year-old reliever that the A's would trade a year later, along with Sean Doolittle, in exchange for Jesús Luzardo, Sheldon Neuse, and Blake Treinen.
Trevor May will likely fill that veteran relief arm that gets moved this summer.
In looking at the A's top 30 prospect list heading into 2023, one thing that stands out is how much playing time this group could see in comparison to the previous group. Obviously, guys like Soderstrom, Zack Gelof (#3), Jordan Díaz (#9), and Esteury Ruiz (#6) could see a good amount of playing time in the second half of the season once the roster loses a few veteran players at the Deadline. Ruiz is likely to be the A's Opening Day centerfielder, and Díaz just needs to settle into a defensive position.
There are also guys like Henry Bolte, who's still just 19, but offers a tremendous amount of upside as a power/speed threat if it all clicks.
Then there's arms like Luis Medina who have power stuff, but command has sometimes eluded him. If he takes a step forward, he could be a dominant pitcher in the A's rotation along with Mason MIller as soon as 2024.
Obviously hindsight lessens the shine on the A's prospect list of 2016, but they did have a lot of industry-recognized talent.
This rebuild the A's are following their own path, and since they've done this a time or two in the past, it's probably best to sit back and let them cook. Not every prospect hits, but the A's are playing a numbers game and building up their depth.
The game changes in between each of the A's rebuild cycles, and in recent years teams are less likely to trade away a top prospect like they may have been even six or seven years ago. That's where the current rebuild could run into some trouble. The front office is now relying on their own evaluation and development skills providing some value that prospect evaluators weren't baking into their calculations.
The A's have been roasted after a few of their recent trades, with people in the industry saying the A's got fleeced on a number of deals. Fans are hoping that the A's know what they're doing.
As with any rebuild, a little bit of luck can go a long way. Luck with guys staying healthy so that they can continue developing. Luck with an unforeseen prospect taking a huge leap forward. The A's were already unlucky in the first-ever Draft Lottery after finishing with the second-worst record in baseball a year ago, they'll be drafting sixth in this summer's Draft.
They're going to have to hit on that pick too, unlike when they drafted NFL quarterback Kyler Murray, or swung and missed with Austin Beck. Both Murray and Beck were top-ten picks.
A lot of this rebuild's success seems to be resting on the shoulders of Tyler Soderstrom. He needs to be good and he needs to be good relatively quickly when he reaches the majors. The bright spot here is that he has a nice supporting cast around him, with Jordan Díaz, Zack Gelof, Ken Waldicuk, Mason Miller, and Shea Langeliers as potential core guys. Added to the mix are Esteury Ruiz, Nick Allen, Kevin Smith, Dermis Garcia, and Kyler Muller all hanging around as intriguing building blocks, too.