3 X-Factor Players on the 2022 Blue Jays

It's easy to look at the Blue Jays roster and ogle at the superstar talent.

George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernández create a devastating one-through-four punch, while José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and Hyun Jin Ryu fill out arguably the AL East's best pitching staff.

But—as baseball's 162-game season so rudely reminds us every year—depth is the name of the game. Toronto has big dogs at the top, but the rest of its roster tapers off somewhat afterwards.

Without the reliability of guys like Marcus Semien or Robbie Ray, some current Blue Jays will be asked to play important roles in 2022—and how they perform in these roles could have a drastic influence on the season to come.

Let's look at three 'X-factor’ players who will have a big impact on the makeup of the upcoming season:

*2022 projections by Steamer via Fangraphs

Cavan Biggio – 2B

2022 Projections: .231/.341/.393, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 100 wRC+, 1.4 WAR

Cavan Biggio had a challenging 2021 season. When he wasn’t out of action with lingering neck or back injuries, the 26-year-old slashed .224/.322/.356 in just 79 games. Yet with some glaring holes in Toronto’s infield, there’s room for redemption in 2022.

Semien is gone and, as the roster stands mid-lockout, Biggio is line to replace him as the team’s primary second baseman. Defense isn’t his strength—Statcast pegs him as below league average both as an infielder and outfielder—and his misadventures at third base last season took a chunk out of his confidence. Still, the keystone is manageable for him.

Biggio’s biggest asset is his patience at the plate; he finished in the 100th percentile in chase rate during the 2019 and 2020 seasons. As a left-handed hitter who also produced among the league’s best in walk rate during his first two seasons, he’s already exactly what Toronto needs. Steamer projects Biggio to be a league average offensive contributor in 2022, but there’s more upside if he follows his proper script.

The key for Biggio this season will be to stay within himself; he’s not a power-hacking, 30-homer, middle-of-the-order guy, and he shouldn’t try to be. Instead, he’s an eagle-eyed hitter who can work the count and juice the bases for when the run producers step up. With a healthy, A-grade Biggio setting the table, the Blue Jays’ 2022 batting order looks much more complete.

Nate Pearson - SP

2022 Projections: 4.33 ERA, 15 GS, 99 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 24.6 K%, 10.0 BB%, 1.3 WAR

Promised to deliver great talent to the Blue Jays rotation, Nate Pearson gave the baseball world a short glimpse at what he can do during his September promotion and subsequent work out of Toronto’s bullpen.

In his 2021 cameo, Pearson showed why he deserved to graduate from his slot as Toronto’s No. 1 prospect, ramping his fastball as high as 102 mph and showing some impressive poise in leverage. However it's the elusive mélange of consistency, command, and health the Blue Jays need from the 25-year-old as he heads into what is technically his third season in the majors.

The Blue Jays would love Pearson to extrapolate this past season’s relief work (3.52 xERA, 12 K/9) into a full season as a starting pitcher, but it isn’t that easy. Pearson hasn’t thrown more than 101.2 innings in a single pro season thanks to a myriad of health flare-ups, but if he enters spring training at 100%—something he didn’t do in 2021—it’s assumed he’ll battle Ross Stripling for a spot at the bottom of Toronto’s rotation.

What can we expect from Nate Pearson next season?#BlueJays pitching coach Pete Walker weighed in with @JDBunkis, @BlakeMurphyODC & @ailishforfar.

Full chat:
🔊 https://t.co/hWBBjjmVP0
🍎 https://t.co/q96dqs58F1 pic.twitter.com/swGyNzgWg3
— Sportsnet 590 The FAN (@FAN590) November 19, 2021

Steamer cautiously projects Pearson to throw 99 innings in 2022, but the Blue Jays see him as a full-time starter going forward. Though Pearson could pitch with an innings limit next year, something in the range of 110 to 125 innings seems plausible if he takes a rotation spot from the get-go.

He teases Blue Jays fans every so often, but if 2022 is the year Pearson breaks through, Toronto won’t just possess the strongest rotation in the division, it’ll have one of the better staffs in baseball.

Danny Jansen - C

2022 Projections: .240/.321/.437, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 103 wRC+, 2.2 WAR

A new mental approach helped Danny Jansen to a scorching offensive second half in 2021 and reminded Blue Jays fans what their catcher is capable of. After overcoming multiple hamstring injuries, the 26-year-old slashed .323/.380/.785 (204 wRC+) in his final 71 plate appearances.

If Jansen’s adjustments to his swing are permanent and he starts 2022 in similar form, the Blue Jays’ lineup changes dramatically, partially because it could change how Toronto rotates its catchers.

Should the Blue Jays feel comfortable the second-half version of Jansen is here to stay, it allows for the trade of another catcher. Alejandro Kirk, for example, could be swapped in a deal for a position of greater need, like one more starting pitcher or an infield piece.

Jansen’s performance in 2022 also plays into the timing of a call up for super-prospect Gabriel Moreno, who’s expected to arrive as early as next season. In a best-case scenario, Jansen stays hot at the plate, continues his strong rapport with Jays pitchers, and—should Toronto move Kirk—finds himself as part of a solid catching duo with Moreno, assuming the youngster plays himself onto the major-league roster before season’s end.