The Reinforcements: Blue Jays' Layers of Late-Season Depth

With Hyun Jin-Ryu, Chad Green, and climbing prospects, the Blue Jays have a layer of depth to call on after the trade deadline.

The Blue Jays pushed their pitching depth to the brink in 2022.

Toronto had nine different pitchers start games in the final two months of the season, including David Phelps, Trevor Richards, and Julian Merryweather. Four of those starters posted ERAs over 5.50 and the team's overall ERA ranked third-worst among playoff teams during the last two months. It didn't cost them a playoff spot—at least not last year.

So, before the 2023 season even starts, the Jays have built up that layer of late-season pitching depth. The Blue Jays have optionable pitchers like Nate Pearson, Zach Thompson, and Zach Pop, who represent the first line of depth. But, with arms returning from injury and scaling the minors, they have a second layer for the post-deadline grind.

Toronto's two top late-season depth options are the ones we won't see for the first four or more months of the year, in Chad Green and Hyun Jin Ryu. Both veterans are currently rehabbing from June 2022 Tommy John surgeries that would allow them back in July at the earliest—but they also don't have to be on the 40-man once Spring Training begins, saving Toronto valuable roster spots. 

While it's hard to anticipate immediate returns from guys 12 to 14 months removed from an MLB mound, most hurlers who have TJ soon get back to their previous form—though some struggle with control at first. Both Dustin May and Chris Devenski underwent Tommy John halfway through the 2021 season and returned to pitch 30.0 and 14.2 innings respectively down the stretch last year.

When healthy, Green has been one of the most reliable relievers in baseball. Since 2019, he hasn't posted an ERA or FIP over 4.2 or had a K/9 drift below 9.5. He also brings the whiff rates Toronto's 'pen lacked at times last year, as his career strikeout rate of 32.5% (10% above MLB average) would've ranked best on the Jays in 2022. 

Green's Curveball

With Ryu, it's harder to project what the return will look like. Vets like Justin Verlander can come back from TJ at age 39 and win a Cy Young. Others, like Chris Sale and James Paxton, haven't logged meaningful innings since their recent procedures. Steamer projects 21 innings for Ryu this coming year, sporting a 3.65 ERA.

At 35 years old and with just one season left on his Blue Jays contract, the 'ideal' for Ryu is a healthy return for the last two months of the season, able to soak up the starts Toronto was forced to give Trevor Richards, Mitch White, and a struggling Yusei Kikuchi in the final months of 2022. Don't plan for heavy innings and playoff outings, but Ryu's recovery timeline could line up with some needed spot starts late in the year.

The next layer of depth comes from the minors, the call-ups Toronto didn't have last year. Max Castillo came up for a few starts before he was traded and Bowden Francis had a brief taste of the bigs, but the Jays weren't able to insulate their pitching injuries and poor performance down the stretch with graduated prospects. In 2023, things should be different.

Yosver Zulueta and Hayden Juenger were on the periphery of the big leagues by the end of 2022, both making it to Triple A in relief roles before time ran out. For Zulueta, expectation is the flame-throwing righty will stick in the high minors to start the season, transitioned back into a starting role—at least to begin. In Juenger, the Jays are committed to a hybrid relief/bulk role that should set him up to log multiple innings out of the pen when he cracks the big leagues. Both youngsters could be candidates for early promotions, but they'll likely start behind the Pop, Thornton, Pearson tier of depth, pitching at least a half-season at Triple A.

And then, in a category of his own, there's Ricky Tiedemann. With a funky arm slot and high velocity, there's little question Tiedemann could be an effective lefty reliever for the Blue Jays as soon as Opening Day. But, with a consensus top 50 prospect, Toronto will rightfully take the long view. He could force himself up from Triple A with an Alek Manoah-esque start to 2023 and a need in the rotation. More likely we're looking at an entire season in the minors for Tiedemann, or a brief MLB debut before hitting an innings limit late in the year.

The ascendance of Tiedemann last year is just one example of how much can change in six months. Some of Toronto's built-up depth will be called upon early and some of the rehabbing hurlers could suffer setbacks. But, at least compared to 2022, the Jays are proactively prepared for the late-season grind with a fresh layer of pitching depth.