Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Blue Jays Free Agent Fit: The Case For Kyle Schwarber
Once a World Series hero, Kyle Schwarber took a ‘prove it’ deal last winter.
Coming off the worst season of his seven-year MLB career, where he hit .188 with a .701 OPS in a shortened schedule, Schwarber signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the basement-dwelling Washington Nationals.
Then, he proved it.
Shaking off the shortened 2020, Schwarber slashed .266/.374/.554 in 2021, earning his first trip to the All-Star Game and a trade to the contending Boston Red Sox. Now, re-entering free agency commanding a larger contract, Schwarber is a perfect free agent fit for the Toronto Blue Jays
The Player
Despite the up-and-down production in recent years, it's pretty clear what Kyle Schwarber is at the plate. Throwing out 2020, he's a high walk-rate, high-power lefty bat who has never posted a SLG below .465 in his career.
In 2021, he was one of the best left-handed hitters in baseball, posting the eighth-highest OPS against right-handed pitching. Against RHP, he out-mashed fellow lefties like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Corey Seager, despite posting a BABIP below his career average.
His approach marries elite exit velocities with top-tier walk and chase rates, pairing for a prototypical modern hitter with power and on-base skills.
Schwarber's main talents lie in the batter's box, but he's played significant time in the corner outfield and at first base. Most defensive stats don't love Schwarber's play in the field, with a negative career range runs rating and -13 career defensive runs saved in the outfield. The former Cub has, however, flourished at times in left field, posting a +8.8 and +14 UZR/150 in the outfield in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
With the Red Sox down the stretch last year, Schwarber played 15 games in left, 14 at DH, and nine at first base. 2021 was Schwarber's worst defensive season in the outfield, per UZR, but former outfield coach and Red Sox bench coach Will Venable had praise for the 29-year-old's skills on the grass.
“I think [Schwarber] was a lot better in the outfield than his reputation was,” Venable told the Boston Herald. “I was impressed with his ability out there for a guy who hasn’t been out there a long time."
The Fit
Schwarber's fit in the Blue Jays lineup is obvious, bringing a lot of what Toronto lacked last year. He'd become the second regular hitter on the team who doesn't hit righty (joining Cavan Biggio) and despite playing just 113 games last year, Schwarber's 64 walks would've been third-most on the Jays (two behind Marcus Semien).
With a different skillset, Schwarber could provide the same lefty bat at LF and DH as Corey Dickerson last year, who played in 46 of Toronto's final 59 games in 2021. Adding Schwarber somewhere in the mix with George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Teoscar Hernández in the top five of Toronto's lineup would seemingly replace the wallop lost by Semien's departure.
Defensively, he doesn't fill Toronto's perceived needs of a second or third baseman, but there's room for Schwarber on the roster. An open designated hitter spot allows Schwarber to find the lineup every day, while his experience in left field and at first allow him to slide into the field if guys like Springer or Guerrero need a day off their feet. For those clamoring for Freddie Freeman, Schwarber brings some of the same with more defensive versatility and a lower cost.
The Contract
As with almost all free agents, what will primarily draw Schwarber to the Blue Jays is money. According to Cot's, the Blue Jays currently project to run an opening day payroll of around $153 million, including the reported signing of Yusei Kikuchi. With a few holes still to fill and spending expected to continue, Toronto's 2022 opening day payroll could be the highest in franchise history. How high it'll go, is unclear.
Earlier this offseason, MLB Trade Rumors projected Schwarber to receive $70 million over four years while FanGraphs' median crowdsourced contract was a four-year deal at $15 mill annually. Prior to the lockout, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald indicated Schwarber was looking for a three-year deal, totaling $60 million.
The market, however, has a new wrinkle. For players like Schwarber and Nelson Cruz, the addition of a universal DH in the newly-ratified CBA provides new options. Unlikely to man everyday defensive positions, Schwarber and Cruz now have a spot with all 30 teams who can slot them in at designated hitter.
Though the NL DH was always seen as a likely inclusion in the new CBA (probably why both Cruz and Schwarber waited to sign), it's unclear how high it has or will push their value. Even with up to 15 new bidders, Schwarber remains a great free agent fit for the Blue Jays.
