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You can't simplify baseball down to a single number, even wins and losses don't always tell the whole story.

But, there are usually a few trends and statistics that help tell the story of a team and a season, and there are some metrics that have defined the Blue Jays' 2022 campaign so far.

Taking a look at Toronto's bullpen, bats, and success against the best teams in baseball, here are three numbers that will impact the Blue Jays' success in their pursuit for October baseball:

2.60

Toronto's second-half bullpen ERA.

Bullpen inconsistencies defined Toronto's first half, thrusting relief help to the top of the trade deadline needs list. But with a few new faces and some recent stability, the Blue Jay 'pen has gone from worry to workhorse in recent weeks.

With a 2.60 bullpen ERA since the All-Star break and 3.12 ERA since acquiring Anthony Bass and Zach Pop at the deadline, the Jays have one of the league's best bullpens in recent weeks. Toronto's relief options still don't rank at the top of the league in swing-and-miss and many expected numbers, but outs are outs. With rotation depth still a key question for the Jays, some continued stability from the bullpen could help steer the Jays to October.

.265

Toronto's batting average with runners in scoring position.

The Jays' success with runners in scoring position has been a bit of a rollercoaster this year. 

They were the worst RISP team in the American League over the first two months of the season, then they were the second-best in baseball for the next two months. Naturally, the season numbers have settled somewhere in the middle, but continued offensive success could be reliant on Toronto's lineup continuing to push this number up.

During a recent skid, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. identified runners in scoring position chances as the main area for improvement for Blue Jay hitters. In the seven games since Toronto hit .310 with RISP. It won't be that easy for the rest of the season, but it's a good response so far.

34-43

Toronto's record against teams over .500.

Teams don't need to dominate other winning teams to win a World Series. Two of the last three champs have had .500 or worse records against winning teams in the regular season. But, the best teams usually find a way to win those games, because you've gotta be able to win them in October.

The Blue Jays have struggled against good teams so far this season, posting a 44% win rate against squads over .500. They've done a good enough job beating up on the bad ones that they're still in a playoff spot, but this lack of success could come back to bite the Jays. Of Toronto's 40 remaining games, 24 (or 60%) will come against teams currently over .500.

Even if the Jays manage to make the playoffs without correcting this trend against good teams, they'll face nothing but winning teams in October.