Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
What Could a Teoscar Hernández Extension Look Like?
The Blue Jays have already tried to lock up Teoscar Hernández.
According to ESPN's Jeff Passan on the FAN590, the Blue Jays attempted to extend their silver-slugging right fielder in 2020, but fell short of a deal. And now, 22 Hernández homers, an .864 OPS, and an all-star season later, the price has risen.
"[The Blue Jays] have a guy in right field who they undervalued when they tried to extend him last year," Passan said, "and who is going to want to get paid paid."
With two seasons of team control via arbitration remaining, the Blue Jays aren't in jeopardy of losing Hernández in the immediate future. But, if they want the 28-year-old corner outfielder to stay a part of this core, the Blue Jays and Hernández must eventually come to terms on an extension. While both sides could wait out the arb years and talk before free agency, there's a path to an immanent extension blazed by a few comparable batters who inked deals in recent years.
Noting that Hernández would likely make ~$25 million combined in his final two arbitration years, buying out free agency could get expensive for the Blue Jays. Looking at comps in production, service time, and contract situation, two players can provide a glimpse at what that extension could look like: Brandon Belt and Charlie Blackmon.
Neither of these NL players are perfect comparisons to Hernández, but they share similar pre-extension WAR, service time, and — most importantly — they both signed extensions that bought out final years of arb eligibility. The following chart compares the three years of pre-extension (or pre-2022 in Hernández's case) production (in bWAR) for Belt, Blackmon, and Hernández, noting the extensions signed and ages at the time.
OF Charlie Blackmon — 6 years / $108 million (2 player options)
Though Blackmon signed his extension a few years older than Hernández will be this offseason, he entered his final years of arbitration with some similarities to the Blue Jay right fielder. Ahead of the 2018 season (when Blackmon inked a six-year deal) he had appeared in one all-star game, was a silver slugger in the outfield, and received some MVP votes. In the three years leading up to his long-term deal in Colorado, Blackmon was worth 12.1 WAR, to Hernández's projected 8.95 (accounting for 162 game seasons).
Aside from age, one major difference between Blackmon's deal and a hypothetical 2022 Hernández extension is that the Rockies only bought out one arbitration year for their star outfielder. However, in a tradeoff for buying out more FA years, the Rockies afforded Blackmon two player options in the final two years of the deal.
Accounting for the $12 million arbitration avoidance in the first year of the deal, Blackmon's extension essentially boiled down to three guaranteed years at $21 million per, with a $21 mill and $13 mill player option in the final two years.
While Blackmon was a slightly more productive player than Hernández at the time of extension, taking into account inflation in the last few years, age at the time of extension, and the added arbitration year buyout for Toronto, Blackmon's deal provides a potential ceiling for keeping Toronto's cleanup hitter north of the border.
1B Brandon Belt — 6 years / $79 million
While Brandon Belt's extension on paper was a five-year deal, buying out four free agency years and guaranteeing a final year of arbitration, it occurred just after the Giants and their first basemen avoided arbitration in 2016 — pushing the deal to essentially six years and two arb buyouts.
Signing a long-term deal with two years of arb remaining and producing 9.2 WAR heading into that extension year, the comparison is obvious for Belt and Hernández, even with the two hitters playing different positions.
While the MLB climate and budgets were different back when Belt inked his deal in 2016 (David Ortiz received AL MVP votes that year), the timing, comparable production, and four years of free agency bought out at $16 million per year provide another framework for Hernández and the Blue Jays to work from.
Conclusion:
The most likely reality is the Blue Jays and Hernández both continue to take it one year at a time, going to arbitration or settling ahead of hearings for the next two seasons. But, if Passan's report is any indication, the Blue Jays clearly want to keep Hernández around. If both sides still feel a long-term extension is in their best interest and find an agreeable price-point, the Jays could prevent Hernández from hitting free agency any time soon.
Hernández's production will continue to determine what that deal could look like, but as of now, a contract in the region of Belt and Blackmon's recent six-year extensions could be a realistic outcome for Toronto's silver slugger.
