Bannon: Blue Jays Are Trending in the Wrong Direction

Despite missing the playoffs, the 2021 Blue Jays gave hope for a brighter future. But that year's team may have been the peak.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lingered in the Blue Jays dugout for a moment.

Seconds after Rafael Devers' homer sent the Red Sox to the 2021 MLB postseason — ending Toronto's playoff hopes — Guerrero stood up, collected his bats, and walked down the tunnel to the home clubhouse.

The end to that 2021 campaign was crushing. Multiple Blue Jays, in the proceeding end-of-year press conferences, noted that year's Toronto team had the "best offense and starting pitching in baseball." And yet, the resulting 91 wins weren't even enough to sniff October. Despite the abrupt season end and lack of postseason to show from it, there was hope. There was optimism.

"We have a great culture and it's only going to get better," Springer said on the final day of the 2021 season. "Hopefully."

Even with Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien heading for free agency, Toronto's young core was in place with Bo Bichette and Guerrero Jr., and the splashy free-agent signings of George Springer and Hyun Jin Ryu were clearly paying off. There was more room to spend, a prospect pool to utilize in trades, and an upward trajectory seemed inevitable.

Fast forward two years and the Blue Jays face the very same end-of-year press conference with no more playoff wins than they had in '21. In fact, by expected pythagorean record, the Blue Jays have gotten worse each of the past two years. They're trending in the wrong direction.

Blue Jays Pythagorean Record:

• 2021: 99-63
• 2022: 91-71
• 2023: 89-73

In the two seasons since 2021, the Blue Jays have thrown money and resources around in an effort to improve on that year's squad. Though Semien and Ray left, Matt Chapman and Kevin Gausman were brought in to fill the holes. Last winter, it was determined 'run prevention' would fix the problems, and Daulton Varsho, Chris Bassitt, and bullpen help were the offseason's injections of choice.

Despite the roster shaking and free-agent spending, the '22 and '23 iterations of Blue Jays baseball have managed just as many postseason victories as the 2021 team that didn't even get to October. Is there luck to snatching wins in the postseason? Sure. But can it be reasonably stated that the past two years' Toronto teams even deserved more than the 2021 squad? I'd say no.

That 2021 team was truly great. The offense had three 30-homer hitters and a rotation of José Berríos, Cy Young Ray, healthy Ryu, and upstart Alek Manoah could've pushed the team deep into the playoffs. The last two years haven't come close to that standard.

Now, the Blue Jays have been passed by the Orioles, staved off by the Rays, and bested in consecutive Octobers by Mariners and Twins teams rocking $50-million or more lower payrolls.

What's worse, the optimism and hope that 2021 team provided has largely dissipated. It felt inevitable the Blue Jays would only get better after that year's postseason miss. Now, the path forward is unclear.

Factoring in arbitration estimates, the Blue Jays may only have ~$15-20 million in budget room to work with this winter, if they run back a similar payroll in 2024. They'll need to fill holes left by impending free agents Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier (who both massively over-performed expected contributions), Chapman, and Jordan Hicks.

At a post-season press conference on Saturday, GM Ross Atkins admitted this year's free agent class is "very weak" and rocking Baseball America's 25th-ranked prospect pool will make any splashy offense-altering trades difficult for Toronto to pull off. Atkins will still find a way to add a few bats back to the lineup, but any real offensive gains must come from the core currently on the roster. 

The 2024 Jays will still be talented. They still have the Bichette/Guerrero core, one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, and one of the game's higher payrolls to work with. But, the formerly young stars are getting dangerously close to free agency, the free-agent signings get one year older every season, and the prospect pool isn't packed with guaranteed future stars anymore.

Two years ago, the Blue Jays seemed like an ascending force in baseball. Now, the direction is far less clear.