3 Blue Jays X-Factors for the Wild Card Series

Three keys to the Blue Jays' success in a Wild Card series against the Seattle Mariners.

After the next two or three games, the Blue Jays will be heading to Houston or heading home.

Every moment, misplay, and bad pitch that you can stomach over the course of 162 games will now be magnified. The postseason puts a focus on the little things, with every player and decision thrust into the spotlight.

While the superstars can decide the series, it's not always them. Here are three other players who will be X-Factors for the Blue Jays heading into Friday's Wild Card round:

1. Whit Merrifield

For most teams, losing an All-Star second baseman with days left in the regular season could be crushing to playoff hopes. But for the Blue Jays, it may have unlocked an X-Factor.

Since Santiago Espinal went down with an oblique injury on September 21, Whit Merrifield has been the Blue Jays' best hitter. The deadline acquisition hit .417 with a 1.181 OPS in his final 14 games of the regular season and launched four of his five homers with the Jays in that time.

Though Merrifield's season numbers still aren't great this year, his late-season hot streak made his time with the Jays look a lot more like the rest of his career. Merrifield has led the league in hits, doubles, and stolen bases before, was a two-time All-Star, and even got MVP votes in 2018. He doesn't need to be the MVP of the Jays, though, but staying hot for the next few weeks could entrench him in Toronto baseball history.

"You can put him anywhere," Schneider said of Merrifield. "Outfield, second base, a game or two at first base. He's been a calming presence when you have a regular guy like [Espinal] go out."

Even if Espinal returns from injury, which sounds possible, Merrifield's bat has earned him a starting spot in the Blue Jays' Wild Card lineups. Three weeks ago, it wasn't clear if Merrifield would even be on Toronto's postseason roster, but now he's as valuable as anyone.

2. The Set-Up Men

Jordan Romano has been one of the most reliable closers in baseball. He has a 2.14 ERA, has great peripherals, and hasn't had a prolonged rough stretch. But, it's the guys behind him that will define the Blue Jays bullpen.

Even with Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah regularly going deep in games, the Jays will need their stable of late-game relievers to get the ball from starters to Romano. That responsibility will fall on Yimi García, Anthony Bass, and Tim Mayza. The trio of Toronto set-up men have all been great over the course of the season, but each has had their blips of inconsistency, too.

The late-game situations will be further magnified by one of Seattle's clear strengths: an elite and deep back of the bullpen. After the All-Star break, Blue Jays relievers took a collective step forward, earning the 10th-best high-leverage RP ERA. But, Seattle's was the best.

Unless Toronto's bats crack open games by a wide margin, Toronto's late-game relievers will have the pressure of keeping a lead or keeping things close with the season on the line.

3. Ross Stripling

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have been two of the best pitchers in the American League this year and could both get Cy Young votes. At worst, they match up as comparables to Seattle's top starters, Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray. But where the Mariners have a perceived edge is rotation depth, able to toss out big righty Logan Gilbert in a decisive third game and have rookie George Kirby just in case.

But there's one Blue Jay who will have something to say about that edge. Thrown into the rotation after Hyun Jin Ryu went down for the year, Ross Stripling has been one of Toronto's most reliable hurlers. He has a 2.92 ERA across his 24 starts in 2022 and an outstanding 7.14 K:BB ratio.

On the season, Stripling's ERA jumps to 4.34 ERA in starts against playoff teams, but he's had success against the Mariners. Facing Seattle three times this year, twice in relief and once as a starter, Stripling allowed three earned runs across 7.1 total innings, striking out eight and walking just two.

He could line up as Toronto's starting option in a crucial Game 3, but there's even an argument to start Stripling in Game 2. Starting Stripling in the series' second game could allow Kevin Gausman's cut finger an extra day to heal and set up the Jays better for a potential ALDS. If you need Gausman for Game 3, you start him, but if Stripling wins the Jays the series in two games, they could have Gausman lined up to start Game 1 (and then also Game 5) in an ALDS series against Houston.

Regardless of when he pitches, a Stripling start in this Wild Card series could hold the fate of Toronto's World Series aspirations.